IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbp/nbpmis/113.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do those who stay work less? On the impact of emigration on the measured TFP in Poland

Author

Listed:
  • Katarzyna Budnik

    (National Bank of Poland)

Abstract

The measured TFP growth in Poland slowed from around 4% in the second half of the 90s to 2% a decade later. This reduction in the growth rate of the Solow residual is argued to reflect the evolution of worker effort and, indirectly, of the labour market within the period. The unobserved worker effort is identified within a structural efficiency wage model with shirking. The model estimates suggest that a reduction in the generosity of the unemployment benefit system and the stabilization of the job destruction rate before 2000 reinforced worker motivation. In turn, the economic revival and the intensification of emigration around the date of the Polish accession to the European Union undermined it. Consequently, a steep increase in worker effort before 2000 temporarily boosted the measured TFP growth. A levelling off and the eventual correction of effort after 2000 depressed the observed TFP growth rates. Around 15% of the estimated decline in GDP tied to an increase in emigration after 2004 can be attributed to negative changes in worker discipline.

Suggested Citation

  • Katarzyna Budnik, 2012. "Do those who stay work less? On the impact of emigration on the measured TFP in Poland," NBP Working Papers 113, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:113
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/113_en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James Costain & Marcel Jansen, 2010. "Employment Fluctuations with Downward Wage Rigidity: The Role of Moral Hazard," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(4), pages 782-811, December.
    2. Burda, Michael & Wyplosz, Charles, 1994. "Gross worker and job flows in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1287-1315, June.
    3. Jonas Agell & Per Lundborg, 2003. "Survey Evidence on Wage Rigidity and Unemployment: Sweden in the 1990s," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(1), pages 15-30, March.
    4. George A. Akerlof & Janet L. Yellen, 1990. "The Fair Wage-Effort Hypothesis and Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(2), pages 255-283.
    5. Lourens Broersma & Frank A. G. den Butter & Udo Kock, 2006. "A cointegration model for search equilibrium wage formation," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 9, pages 235-254, November.
    6. Wadhwani, Sushil B & Wall, Martin, 1991. "A Direct Test of the Efficiency Wage Model Using UK Micro-data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 43(4), pages 529-548, October.
    7. Hansen, G D, 1993. "The Cyclical and Secular Behaviour of the Labour Input: Comparing Efficiency Units and Hours Worked," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 71-80, Jan.-Marc.
    8. Alexopoulos, Michelle, 2007. "A monetary business cycle model with unemployment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3904-3940, December.
    9. Erling Barth & Bernt Bratsberg & Torbjørn Hægeland & Oddbjørn Raaum, 2008. "Who pays for performance?," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 8-29, March.
    10. Daniel Aaronson & Daniel G. Sullivan, 2002. "Growth in worker quality," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Feb.
    11. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Oskar Krzesicki & Roza Lewinska & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk, 2009. "An update of the macroeconometric model of the Polish economy NECMOD," NBP Working Papers 64, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    12. Vincent (Vincent Peter) Hogan, 1999. "The determinants of reservation wages," Working Papers 199916, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    13. Yellen, Janet L, 1984. "Efficiency Wage Models of Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 200-205, May.
    14. Raff, Daniel M G & Summers, Lawrence H, 1987. "Did Henry Ford Pay Efficiency Wages?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(4), pages 57-86, October.
    15. Machin, Stephen & Manning, Alan, 1992. "Testing Dynamic Models of Worker Effort," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(3), pages 288-305, July.
    16. Feldstein, Martin & Poterba, James, 1984. "Unemployment insurance and reservation wages," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 141-167.
    17. Kimball, Miles S, 1994. "Labor-Market Dynamics When Unemployment is a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 1045-1059, September.
    18. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2005:i:21:p:1-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Introduction to "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings"," NBER Chapters,in: Schooling, Experience, and Earnings, pages 1-4 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Jones, Stephen R G, 1989. "Reservation Wages and the Cost of Unemployment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 56(222), pages 225-246, May.
    21. Michelle Alexopoulos, 2006. "Shirking in a monetary business cycle model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(3), pages 689-718, August.
    22. Katarzyna Budnik, 2007. "Migration Flows and Labour Market in Poland," NBP Working Papers 44, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    23. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Marcin Kolasa & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2009. "The new macroeconometric model of the Polish economy," NBP Working Papers 62, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    24. James M. Malcomson & Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2007. "Matching Frictions, Efficiency Wages, and Unemployment in the USA and the UK," Working Papers 2007-02, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    25. James Costain & Marcel Jansen, 2010. "Employment Fluctuations with Downward Wage Rigidity: The Role of Moral Hazard," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(4), pages 782-811, December.
    26. Alexopoulos, Michelle, 2004. "Unemployment and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 277-298, March.
    27. Akerlof, George A, 1984. "Gift Exchange and Efficiency-Wage Theory: Four Views," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 79-83, May.
    28. George A. Akerlof, 1982. "Labor Contracts as Partial Gift Exchange," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 97(4), pages 543-569.
    29. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc74-1, January.
    30. Alberto Musso & Thomas Westermann, 2005. "Assessing potential output growth in the euro area - a growth accounting perspective," Occasional Paper Series 22, European Central Bank.
    31. Luiz A. Esteves, 2007. "Efficiency Wage and Labor Discipline Models: Matched-Panel Evidence from Brazilian Construction Industry," Working Papers 0058, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
    32. Katarzyna Budnik, 2008. "Non-accelerating wage inflation rate of unemployment in Poland," NBP Working Papers 48, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    33. Gomme, Paul, 1999. "Shirking, Unemployment and Aggregate Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(1), pages 3-21, February.
    34. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-444, June.
    35. Albert van der Horst, 2003. "Structural estimates of equilibrium unemployment in six OECD economies," CPB Discussion Paper 19, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    36. Carl M. Campbell III & Kunal S. Kamlani, 1997. "The Reasons for Wage Rigidity: Evidence from a Survey of Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(3), pages 759-789.
    37. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1993. "Cyclical movements of the labor input and its implicit real wage," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 12-23.
    38. Weiss, Andrew W, 1980. "Job Queues and Layoffs in Labor Markets with Flexible Wages," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(3), pages 526-538, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    emigration; TFP; labour productivity; efficiency wages; shirking; potential product; gross worker flows; EU enlargement;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:113. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zbigniew Polański). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nbpgvpl.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.