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An update of the macroeconometric model of the Polish economy NECMOD

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Abstract

The paper presents an update of the structural macroeconometric model of the Polish economy NECMOD. The updated version of the model is, similarly as its predecessor, used at the National Bank of Poland for forecasting and policy simulation exercises. NECMOD is a hybrid, medium-scale and partially forward-looking quarterly model with its structure rooted in the economic theory. Great emphasis has been put on modelling of the supply side of the economy and mechanisms that introduce high persistency of shocks. The present version of NECMOD was estimated on the data covering a period from 1995 to 2008. Its main advantage, as compared to the previous version, is a more detailed and coherent approach to the modelling of the external sector block. Now, secular changes in the exchange rate and foreign trade dynamics are explained jointly with reference to the taste-for-variety theory. Moreover, the current version of the model better reflects interdependencies between domestic and external sector, i.e. via exchange rate - wealth channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Oskar Krzesicki & Roza Lewinska & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk, 2009. "An update of the macroeconometric model of the Polish economy NECMOD," NBP Working Papers 64, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:64
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    File URL: http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/64_en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michal Rubaszek, 2009. "Economic convergence and the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate in Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 40(1), pages 7-22.
    2. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Marcin Kolasa & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2009. "The new macroeconometric model of the Polish economy," NBP Working Papers 62, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
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    Cited by:

    1. Egorov D.A. (Егоров, Д.А.) & Perevyshina E.A. (Перевышина, Е.А.), 2016. "Modelling of Inflationary Processes in Russia
      [Моделирование Инфляционных Процессов В России]
      ," Working Papers 2138, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    2. Krzysztof Olszewski & Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Laszek & Robert Leszczynski & Joanna Waszczuk, 2016. "On the dynamics of the primary housing market and the forecasting of house prices," IFC Bulletins chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Combining micro and macro data for financial stability analysis, volume 41 Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Katarzyna Budnik, 2012. "Do those who stay work less? On the impact of emigration on the measured TFP in Poland," NBP Working Papers 113, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    4. repec:nbp:nbpbik:v:47:y:2016:i:6:p:585-620 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Michal Andrle & Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Giang Ho, 2014. "A Model-Based Analysis of Spillovers; The Case of Poland and the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 14/186, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Polish economy; macroeconometric model; macroeconomic model;

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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