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eMPF Econometric Model of Public Finance

Author

Listed:
  • Dudek, Sławomir

    () (Ministry of Finance in Poland)

  • Pachucki, Dawid

    () (Ministry of Finance in Poland)

  • Zachłod-Jelec, Magdalena

    () (Ministry of Finance in Poland)

  • Zając, Tomasz

    (Ministry of Finance in Poland)

  • Kolski, Paweł

    () (Ministry of Finance in Poland)

  • Fudała-Poradzińska, Iwona

    () (Ministry of Finance in Poland)

  • Danielski, Kamil

Abstract

This paper presents the Econometric Model of Public Finance, eMPF. The model has been developed and maintained at the Polish Ministry of Finance to facilitate forecasting process, especially for the budget and convergence programme purposes, and to deliver scenario analyses. We present the particular blocks of the model and responses to some standard shocks. The eMPF model is a medium size quarterly macroeconometric model of the Polish economy. It was estimated on the seasonally adjusted data on the 1995-2010 sample. The model consists of 352 variables, of which 279 are endogenous and about 40 are explained by stochastic ECM type equations. The long run of the model is theory based and is derived from optimization conditions of the market participants. Microeconomic foundations of the long-run equilibrium impose constraints for dynamics of the model to force it to converge to the steady state. In the short run the model is demand driven with elasticities estimated to reflect historical path of the variables and rigidities in the economy. Taking into account the mix of economic theory and the willingness to fit the equations to the data, the eMPF model belongs to the so-called hybrid models family. There are two sectors identified in the model: the market sector and the general government sector, both summing up to the total economy according to the ESA95 methodology. Within the market sector two additional subsectors are recognised: households and companies, but only part of the institutional accounts is incorporated for these two subsectors. To fulfill the needs of the Ministry of Finance to prepare fiscal policy analyses, the model has quite detailed public finance block.

Suggested Citation

  • Dudek, Sławomir & Pachucki, Dawid & Zachłod-Jelec, Magdalena & Zając, Tomasz & Kolski, Paweł & Fudała-Poradzińska, Iwona & Danielski, Kamil, 2012. "eMPF Econometric Model of Public Finance," MF Working Papers 14, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 12 Jun 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:mfplwp:0014
    as

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    File URL: https://www.gov.pl/documents/1079560/1080340/MF_WP_No_14-2012.pdf/e2f73086-4a69-6470-a4d6-7ae6480a821f
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abel, Andrew B, 1981. "Dynamic Adjustment in a Putty-Putty Model: Implications for Testing the Putty-Clay Hypothesis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(1), pages 19-36, February.
    2. Michal Rubaszek, 2009. "Economic convergence and the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate in Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 40(1), pages 7-22.
    3. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    4. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Marcin Kolasa & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2009. "The new macroeconometric model of the Polish economy," NBP Working Papers 62, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    5. Rubaszek, Michal & Rawdanowicz, Lukasz, 2009. "Economic convergence and the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate in central and eastern Europe," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 277-284, December.
    6. Katarzyna Budnik, 2008. "Non-accelerating wage inflation rate of unemployment in Poland," NBP Working Papers 48, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    7. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
    8. Fernandez, Roque B, 1981. "A Methodological Note on the Estimation of Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(3), pages 471-476, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zachłod-Jelec, Magdalena & Karp, Piotr, 2010. "Responses of the Polish economy to demand and supply shocks under alternative fiscal policy rules," MF Working Papers 5, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 31 Jul 2010.
    2. Eleni ZAFEIRIOU & Theodoros KOUTROUMANIDIS & Chrysovalantis MALESIOS & Androniki KATARACHIA, "undated". "Non Linearities and Chaos in Stock Price Behavior of Greek oil Sector; The Case of Hellenic Petroleum S.A," EcoMod2010 259600176, EcoMod.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural macroeconometric model; macroeconomic model; polish economy;

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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