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Non-accelerating wage inflation rate of unemployment in Poland

The model of the wage bargaining constitutes a framework for calculation of the NAWRU in Poland. The approach used in the paper let me trace changes of the natural unemployment rate in Poland in the context of structural changes in the economy in the last decade. Moreover, I introduced the endogenous equilibrium rate into the existing macroeconomic model — ECMOD. It allowed me to simulate NAWRU behavior after economic shocks. Simulation results shed some light on channels and speed of adjustment of the modelled economy. Interestingly, when NAWRU is tied to the stock of capital, relative prices and fiscal variables, the model is able to replicate high degree of the unemployment persistence.

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Paper provided by National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute in its series National Bank of Poland Working Papers with number 48.

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Length: 50
Date of creation: May 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:48
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  1. McDonald, Ian M & Solow, Robert M, 1981. "Wage Bargaining and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 896-908, December.
  2. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Working Papers 5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
  4. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
  5. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 1980. "Transfers, Taxes, and the NAIRU," NBER Working Papers 0548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Stephen G. Hall & Jennifer V. Greenslade & S. G. Brian Henry, 1999. "On the Identification of Cointegrated Systems in Small Samples: Practical Procedures with an Application to UK Wages and Prices," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 643, Society for Computational Economics.
  7. Tatiana Fic & Marcin Kolasa & Adam Kot & Karol Murawski & Michal Rubaszek & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2005. "ECMOD Model of the Polish Economy," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 36, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
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