IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/polgne/360098.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Import inflacji i sprzężenie płacowo-cenowe w Polsce

Author

Listed:
  • Kelm, Robert
  • Pellegrini, Izabela Sobiech

Abstract

Quantitative analysis is an appropriate tool to disentangle the impact of various recent shocks on price inflation in Poland. This article presents an econometric macro-model of prices and wages in which the direct impact of supply shocks transmitted from energy commodity markets on inflation is highlighted, and the impact of these shocks on the wage-price nexus. Due to the secrecy of data on the prices and volumes of natural gas imports from Russia to Poland, we propose a method for estimating the natural gas import deflator based on data on other main energy resources (crude oil and coal). The model allows us to assess to what extent domestic prices (CPI) depend on trends in world markets, including energy commodity prices. It is also possible to estimate the impact of fiscal policy on price developments. The equations of the model are constructed using cointegration methods for disaggregated consumer and import price indices. The properties of the system of 19 equations are investigated using multiplier analysis. We present the results of a simulation in which no anti-crisis measures were assumed during the COVID-19 pandemic. The obtained results indicate the important role of fiscal policy in shaping prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Kelm, Robert & Pellegrini, Izabela Sobiech, 2023. "Import inflacji i sprzężenie płacowo-cenowe w Polsce," Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 2023(3), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:polgne:360098
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.360098
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/360098/files/Pellegrini.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.360098?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1987. "Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 647-666, September.
    2. Sławomir Dudek & Dawid Pachucki & Magdalena Zachłod-Jelec & Tomasz Zając & Paweł Kolski & Iwona Fudała-Poradzińska & Kamil Danielski, 2012. "eMPF Econometric Model of Public Finance," MF Working Papers 14, Ministry of Finance in Poland.
    3. Greenslade, Jennifer V. & Hall, Stephen G. & Henry, S. G. Brian, 2002. "On the identification of cointegrated systems in small samples: a modelling strategy with an application to UK wages and prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1517-1537, August.
    4. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Oskar Krzesicki & Roza Lewinska & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk, 2009. "An update of the macroeconometric model of the Polish economy NECMOD," NBP Working Papers 64, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    5. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2022. "Oil prices, gasoline prices, and inflation expectations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 867-881, August.
    6. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2023. "A broader perspective on the inflationary effects of energy price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    7. repec:bla:econom:v:53:y:1986:i:210(s):p:s121-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Michał Majsterek & Aleksander Welfe, 2012. "Price-wage nexus and the role of a tax system," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 121-133, February.
    9. Grzegorz Przekota & Anna Szczepańska-Przekota, 2022. "Pro-Inflationary Impact of the Oil Market—A Study for Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-19, April.
    10. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679, Decembrie.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, Decembrie.
    12. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-984, November.
    13. Grzegorz Przekota, 2022. "Do High Fuel Prices Pose an Obstacle to Economic Growth? A Study for Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-15, September.
    14. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502, Decembrie.
    15. Bruno, Michael, 1979. "Price and output adjustment : Micro foundations and aggregation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 187-211, April.
    16. Maciej Grodzicki & Michał Możdżeń & Tomasz Surmacz, 2022. "Poland: Policies dealing with the Inflation Crisis," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 48(4), pages 519-544.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert Kelm & Izabela Sobiech Pellegrini, 2023. "Import inflacji i sprzężenie płacowo-cenowe w Polsce," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 48-70.
    2. Robert Kelm, 2016. "Eksport, import i kurs złotego: 2000−2014," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(6), pages 585-620.
    3. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502, Decembrie.
    4. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Møller, Niels Framroze, 2008. "Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-29.
    6. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: In Search of Improvements and Adaptation to the Open Economy," Economics wp31_tjorvi, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    7. Nymoen, Ragnar & Swensen, Anders Rygh & Tveter, Eivind, 2012. "Interpreting the evidence for New Keynesian models of inflation dynamics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 253-263.
    8. Takamitsu Kurita & B. Nielsen, 2018. "Partial cointegrated vector autoregressive models with structural breaks in deterministic terms," Economics Papers 2018-W03, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    9. Joanna Beza-Bojanowska, 2009. "The Behavioural Zloty/Euro Equilibrium Exchange Rate," NBP Working Papers 55, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    10. André K. Anundsen & Eilev S. Jansen, 2013. "Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit: an extended version," Discussion Papers 756, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    11. Kerry Patterson & Michael A. Thornton, 2013. "A review of econometric concepts and methods for empirical macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 2, pages 4-42, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Takamitsu Kurita & Bent Nielsen, 2019. "Partial Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models with Structural Breaks in Deterministic Terms," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-35, October.
    13. Bjørnar Karlsen Kivedal, 2018. "A new Keynesian framework and wage and price dynamics in the USA," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1271-1289, November.
    14. Joanna Bęza-Bojanowska, 2009. "Behavioral and Permanent Zloty/Euro Equilibrium," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 1(1), pages 35-55, March.
    15. Christian Schoder, 2012. "Effective demand, exogenous normal utilization and endogenous capacity in the long run. Evidence from a CVAR analysis for the US," IMK Working Paper 103-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    16. Eilev S. Jansen, 2004. "Modelling inflation in the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 4104, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 01 Jun 2004.
    17. Hallin, M. & van den Akker, R. & Werker, B.J.M., 2012. "Rank-based Tests of the Cointegrating Rank in Semiparametric Error Correction Models," Other publications TiSEM bc68a2f2-3ca3-443c-b3ac-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2014. "The pairwise approach to model a large set of disaggregates with common trends," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws141309, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    19. Robert Kelm, 2017. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle and Imperfect Knowledge: The Case of the Polish Zloty," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, March.
    20. Guender, Alfred V., 2008. ""Leaning with the wind"? An open-economy example," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 941-964, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:polgne:360098. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/irsghpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.