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Eksport, import i kurs złotego: 2000−2014

Author

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  • Robert Kelm

    (Uniwersytet Łódzki, Wydział Ekonomiczno-Socjologiczny, Katedra Modeli i Prognoz Ekonometrycznych)

Abstract

Gwałtowna deprecjacja złotego i wzrost eksportu netto w latach 2008−2009 zdają się potwierdzać tezę, że reżim płynnego kursu walutowego umożliwił znaczny wzrost konkurencyjności cenowej w apogeum kryzysu subprime i odizolował gospodarkę Polski od negatywnych zewnętrznych szoków popytowych. Podstawową słabością takiej argumentacji jest to, że zawęża ona listę determinant handlu zagranicznego Polski do wahań popytu i cen relatywnych oraz ignoruje wpływ czynników o charakterze podażowym. W artykule podjęto próbę oszacowania rzeczywistej skali oddziaływania popytu, podaży oraz kursu walutowego na import i eksport.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Kelm, 2016. "Eksport, import i kurs złotego: 2000−2014," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(6), pages 585-620.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:47:y:2016:i:6:p:585-620
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    handel zagraniczny; kurs walutowy; wektorowy model korekty błędem;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models

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