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A small forward-looking inter-country model (Belarus, Russia and Ukraine)

Author

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  • Charemza, Wojciech
  • Makarova, Svetlana
  • Prytula, Yaroslav
  • Raskina, Julia
  • Vymyatnina, Yulia

Abstract

The paper describes an inter-country model developed on the New Keynesian Phillips curve principle for the economies of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. Technically the modelling idea has been grounded within the concept of the infinite dimensional vector autoregressive models by Chudik and Pesaran [Chudik A., Pesara M.H., 2007. Infinite-dimensional VAR's and factor models. IZA; DP No. 3206]. The main developments are such that the model is 1) interdependent rather than vector autoregressive, 2) estimated by the generalised method of moments and 3) forward-looking. The primary linkage of the country models is provided through the real effective exchange rates of particular countries, while the secondary linkages are through the Chudik and Pesaran cross-sectional augmentations. A series of Monte Carlo experiments confirms that the small cross-dimension of the model and a possible dominance of one country in the panel (Russia) should not distort the results in a significant way. A series of stochastic simulation experiments made with and without the assumption of observational equivalence principle shows a possible spread of the Dutch Disease from Russia to other countries in the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Charemza, Wojciech & Makarova, Svetlana & Prytula, Yaroslav & Raskina, Julia & Vymyatnina, Yulia, 2009. "A small forward-looking inter-country model (Belarus, Russia and Ukraine)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1172-1183, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:26:y:2009:i:6:p:1172-1183
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Oleksandr Faryna & Heli Simola, 2018. "The Transmission of International Shocks to CIS Economies: A Global VAR Approach," Working Papers 04/2018, National Bank of Ukraine.
    3. Faryna, Oleksandr & Simola, Heli, 2018. "The transmission of international shocks to CIS economies: A Global VAR approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2018, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    4. Yulia Vymyatnina, 2013. "Money Supply and Monetary Policy in Russia: A Post-Keynesian Approach Revisited," EUSP Department of Economics Working Paper Series 2013/04, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics.
    5. Yulia Vymyatnina, 2016. "Credit Dynamics of Various Entities in Russia: Impact of Oil Prices and Sanctions," EcoMod2016 9543, EcoMod.
    6. Yulia Vymyatnina, 2013. "Money Supply and Monetary Policy in Russia: A Post-Keynesian Approach Revisited," EUSP Department of Economics Working Paper Series Ec-04/13, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics.
    7. Yulia Vymyatnina, 2014. "Spillover Effects in the Customs Union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus," EcoMod2014 7160, EcoMod.
    8. Darya Antonova & Yulia Vymyatnina, 2018. "Inflation and Population Age Structure: The Case of Emerging Economies," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(4), pages 3-25, December.

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