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Partial current information and signal extraction in a rational expectations macroeconomic model: A computational solution

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  • Lungu, L.
  • Matthews, K.G.P.
  • Minford, A.P.L.

Abstract

Previous attempts at modelling current observed endogenous financial variables in a macroeconomic model have concentrated on only one observed endogenous variable - namely the short-term rate of interest. The solution method for dealing with more than one observed endogenous variable has thus far been computationally intractable. This paper applies a general search algorithm to a macroeconomic model with an observed interest rate and exchange rate to solve the signal extraction problem. The informational advantage of applying the signal extraction algorithm to all the current observed endogenous variables is examined in terms of the implication for policy from the misperceptions of specific macroeconomic shocks.
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Suggested Citation

  • Lungu, L. & Matthews, K.G.P. & Minford, A.P.L., 2008. "Partial current information and signal extraction in a rational expectations macroeconomic model: A computational solution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 255-273, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:25:y:2008:i:2:p:255-273
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Charemza, Wojciech & Makarova, Svetlana & Prytula, Yaroslav & Raskina, Julia & Vymyatnina, Yulia, 2009. "A small forward-looking inter-country model (Belarus, Russia and Ukraine)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1172-1183, November.
    2. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Bo Yang, 2012. "Imperfect Information, Optimal Monetary Policy and Informational Consistency," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1012, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    3. Carravetta, Francesco & Sorge, Marco M., 2013. "Model reference adaptive expectations in Markov-switching economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 551-559.
    4. Kiani, Khurshid M., 2013. "Can signal extraction help predict risk premia in foreign exchange rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 926-939.

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    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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