Specializing in growing sectors: Wage returns and gender differences

For eight high-income OECD countries we match individual data with national statistics to test whether those who specialized in fields of study when related sectors were growing later earn higher wages. We estimate 2-3% higher hourly wages for these individuals compared to others of similar characteristics and abilities who made their specialization choices under comparable macroeconomic conditions, and who specialized in the same field but when related sectors were not growing. We also find that men overall are less likely to specialize in growing fields because they avoid traditionally female fields that have grown more over recent decades (e.g. health care or education). While for men with at least a bachelor's degree, specializing in traditionally female fields is associated with lower wages, this is not the case for men with vocational degrees, for whom non-wage factors must drive their reluctance towards female fields.Gendered specialization choices, paired with growth in sectors related to traditionally female fields can generate around 20-30% of the reduction in gender wage gaps in recent decades.