IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/keo/dpaper/2017-018.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of a Natural Disaster on Foreign Direct Investment and Vertical Linkages

Author

Listed:
  • Hayato Kato

    (Faculty of Economics, Keio University)

  • Toshihiro Okubo

    (Faculty of Economics, Keio University)

Abstract

How do multinational enterprises (MNEs) affect the host country through their vertical industrial linkages when large natural disasters occur? To answer this question, we develop a simple theoretical framework and show that, as trade costs decline, the host country is first dominated by MNEs and then later by local firms. Thus, when natural disasters seriously damage capital, the industrial configurations in the host country switch from domination by MNEs to domination by local firms. The replacement of MNEs with local firms can raise the welfare of the host country.

Suggested Citation

  • Hayato Kato & Toshihiro Okubo, 2017. "The Impact of a Natural Disaster on Foreign Direct Investment and Vertical Linkages," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2017-018, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    • Handle: RePEc:keo:dpaper:2017-018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ies.keio.ac.jp/upload/pdf/en/DP2017-018.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kugler, Maurice, 2006. "Spillovers from foreign direct investment: Within or between industries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 444-477, August.
    2. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    3. Richard Baldwin & Rikard Forslid & Philippe Martin & Gianmarco Ottaviano & Frederic Robert-Nicoud, 2005. "Economic Geography and Public Policy," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 7524.
    4. Hallegatte, Stéphane & Dumas, Patrice, 2009. "Can natural disasters have positive consequences? Investigating the role of embodied technical change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 777-786, January.
    5. Markusen, James R. & Venables, Anthony J., 1999. "Foreign direct investment as a catalyst for industrial development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 335-356, February.
    6. Trond G. Husby & Henri L.F. Groot & Marjan W. Hofkes & Martijn I. Dröes, 2014. "Do Floods Have Permanent Effects? Evidence From The Netherlands," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 355-377, June.
    7. Andrew B Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2007. "Firm Structure, Multinationals, and Manufacturing Plant Deaths," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 193-204, May.
    8. Noy, Ilan, 2009. "The macroeconomic consequences of disasters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 221-231, March.
    9. Baldwin, Richard E., 2001. "Core-periphery model with forward-looking expectations," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 21-49, February.
    10. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Volatility and Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(1), pages 243-287.
    11. Mark Skidmore & Hideki Toya, 2002. "Do Natural Disasters Promote Long-Run Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 664-687, October.
    12. Okubo, Toshihiro & Kimura, Fukunari & Teshima, Nozomu, 2014. "Asian fragmentation in the Global Financial Crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 114-127.
    13. Strobl, Eric, 2012. "The economic growth impact of natural disasters in developing countries: Evidence from hurricane strikes in the Central American and Caribbean regions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 130-141.
    14. Russ, Katheryn Niles, 2007. "The endogeneity of the exchange rate as a determinant of FDI: A model of entry and multinational firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 344-372, April.
    15. Obashi, Ayako, 2010. "Stability of production networks in East Asia: Duration and survival of trade," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 21-30, January.
    16. Andrea Leiter & Harald Oberhofer & Paul Raschky, 2009. "Creative Disasters? Flooding Effects on Capital, Labour and Productivity Within European Firms," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 333-350, July.
    17. Blalock, Garrick & Gertler, Paul J., 2008. "Welfare gains from Foreign Direct Investment through technology transfer to local suppliers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 402-421, March.
    18. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 52-82.
    19. Aizenman, Joshua, 2003. "Volatility, employment and the patterns of FDI in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 585-601, December.
    20. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Matsuura, Toshiyuki & Okubo, Fumihiro, 2015. "Firm-level impacts of natural disasters on production networks: Evidence from a flood in Thailand," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 244-259.
    21. Monica Escaleras & Charles A. Register, 2011. "Natural Disasters and Foreign Direct Investment," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 87(2), pages 346-363.
    22. Carluccio, Juan & Fally, Thibault, 2013. "Foreign entry and spillovers with technological incompatibilities in the supply chain," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 123-135.
    23. Matthew A. COLE & Robert J R ELLIOTT & OKUBO Toshihiro & Eric STROBL, 2015. "Natural Disasters, Industrial Clusters and Manufacturing Plant Survival," Discussion papers 15008, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    24. Mitsuyo ANDO & Fukunari KIMURA, 2012. "How Did the Japanese Exports Respond to Two Crises in the International Production Network?: The Global Financial Crisis and the East Japan Earthquake," Working Papers DP-2012-01, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    25. Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 1996. "Multinationals, Linkages, and Economic Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 852-873, September.
    26. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2004. "The merits of horizontal versus vertical FDI in the presence of uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 125-148, January.
    27. Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2009. "The Economics of Natural Disasters: A Survey," Research Department Publications 4649, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    28. Martin, Philippe & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1995. "Industrial location and public infrastructure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 335-351, November.
    29. Francisco L. Rivera-Batiz & Luis A. Rivera-Batiz, 2018. "The Effects of Direct Foreign Investment in the Presence of Increasing Returns due to Specialization," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Francisco L Rivera-Batiz & Luis A Rivera-Batiz (ed.), International Trade, Capital Flows and Economic Development, chapter 14, pages 371-396, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    30. Albala-Bertrand, J. M., 1993. "Political Economy of Large Natural Disasters: With Special Reference to Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287650.
    31. Mitsuyo Ando & Fukunari Kimura, 2012. "How did the Japanese Exports Respond to Two Crises in the International Production Networks? The Global Financial Crisis and the Great East Japan Earthquake," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 261-287, September.
    32. Berg, Gunhild & Schrader, Jan, 2012. "Access to credit, natural disasters, and relationship lending," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 549-568.
    33. Sea Jin Chang & Dean Xu, 2008. "Spillovers and competition among foreign and local firms in China," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5), pages 495-518, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. ADACHI Daisuke & SAITO Yukiko, 2020. "Multinational Production and Labor Share," Discussion papers 20012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Hayato Kato & Toshihiro Okubo, 2022. "The Resilience of FDI to Natural Disasters Through Industrial Linkages," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(1), pages 177-225, May.
    3. Lochan Kumar Batala & Wangxing Yu & Anwar Khan & Kalpana Regmi & Xiaoli Wang, 2021. "Natural disasters' influence on industrial growth, foreign direct investment, and export performance in the South Asian region of Belt and road initiative," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(2), pages 1853-1876, September.
    4. Kodad Rajaa & Jingfeng Yuan & Lei Zhang & Junwei Ma & Lei Zhang, 2021. "External Factors Affecting Investment in Overseas Electric Power Projects," Springer Books, in: Gui Ye & Hongping Yuan & Jian Zuo (ed.), Proceedings of the 24th International Symposium on Advancement of Construction Management and Real Estate, pages 1455-1472, Springer.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hayato Kato & Toshihiro Okubo, 2022. "The Resilience of FDI to Natural Disasters Through Industrial Linkages," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(1), pages 177-225, May.
    2. Matthew A. Cole & Robert J R Elliott & Toshihiro Okubo & Eric Strobl, 2014. "Natural Disasters and the Birth, Life and Death of Plants: The Case of the Kobe Earthquake," Working Papers 2014-114, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    3. Matthew A. COLE & Robert J R ELLIOTT & OKUBO Toshihiro & Eric STROBL, 2013. "Natural Disasters and Plant Survival: The impact of the Kobe earthquake," Discussion papers 13063, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Pauline AVRIL & Grégory LEVIEUGE & Camélia TURCU, 2021. "Natural Disasters and Financial Stress: Can Macroprudential Regulation Tame Green Swans?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2913, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    5. Giulia Bettin & Alberto Zazzaro, 2018. "The Impact of Natural Disasters on Remittances to Low- and Middle-Income Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 481-500, March.
    6. Matthew A. COLE & Robert J R ELLIOTT & OKUBO Toshihiro & Eric STROBL, 2015. "Natural Disasters, Industrial Clusters and Manufacturing Plant Survival," Discussion papers 15008, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    7. Elliott, Robert J.R. & Liu, Yi & Strobl, Eric & Tong, Meng, 2019. "Estimating the direct and indirect impact of typhoons on plant performance: Evidence from Chinese manufacturers," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    8. Johanna Choumert-Nkolo & Anaïs Lamour & Pascale Phélinas, 2021. "The Economics of Volcanoes," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 277-299, July.
    9. Matteo Coronese & Davide Luzzati, 2022. "Economic impacts of natural hazards and complexity science: a critical review," LEM Papers Series 2022/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    10. Heger, Martin Philipp & Neumayer, Eric, 2019. "The impact of the Indian Ocean tsunami on Aceh’s long-term economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    11. FERRAGINA, Anna Maria, 2013. "The Impact of FDI on Firm Survival and Employment: A Comparative Analysis for Turkey and Italy," CELPE Discussion Papers 127, CELPE - CEnter for Labor and Political Economics, University of Salerno, Italy.
    12. Lisa Doyle & Ilan Noy, 2015. "The short-run nationwide macroeconomic effects of the Canterbury earthquakes," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 134-156, August.
    13. Davide Antonioli & Alberto Marzucchi & Marco Modica, 2022. "Resilience, Performance and Strategies in Firms’ Reactions to the Direct and Indirect Effects of a Natural Disaster," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 541-565, September.
    14. Ercio Muñoz S. & Alfredo Pistelli M., 2010. "¿Tienen los Terremotos un Impacto Inflacionario en el Corto Plazo? Evidencia para una Muestra de Países," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(2), pages 113-127, April.
    15. Ilan Noy & Eric Strobl, 2023. "Creatively Destructive Hurricanes: Do Disasters Spark Innovation?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(1), pages 1-17, January.
    16. Thomas K.J. McDermott & Frank Barry & Richard S.J. Tol, 2014. "Disasters and development: natural disasters, credit constraints, and economic growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(3), pages 750-773.
    17. Christopher J. Boudreaux & Anand Jha & Monica Escaleras, 2023. "Natural disasters, entrepreneurship activity, and the moderating role of country governance," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1483-1508, April.
    18. Renjie Zhao & Shihu Zhong & Aiping He, 2018. "Disaster Impact, National Aid, and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-22, November.
    19. Loayza, Norman V. & Olaberría, Eduardo & Rigolini, Jamele & Christiaensen, Luc, 2012. "Natural Disasters and Growth: Going Beyond the Averages," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1317-1336.
    20. Ji Guo & Hui Liu & Xianhua Wu & Jiong Gu & Shunfeng Song & Yinshan Tang, 2015. "Natural Disasters, Economic Growth and Sustainable Development in China―An Empirical Study Using Provincial Panel Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(12), pages 1-18, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    MNEs; Natural disasters; Industrial linkage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:keo:dpaper:2017-018. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iekeijp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.