IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2011-064.html

Reviving the Competitive Storage Model: A Holistic Approach to Food Commodity Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Norbert Funke
  • Weifeng Wu
  • Yanliang Miao

Abstract

We revive in this paper the empirical relevance of the competitive storage model by taking a holistic approach to food commodity prices. We augment the seminal Deaton and Laroque (1992, 1996) model by incorporating more comprehensive and realistic supply and demand factors: output and demand trends, shocks to the yield, and time-varying interest rates. While the computational burden increases exponentially, the augmented model succeeds in replicating all four key patterns of food commodity prices. Our simulation and comparative statics also show that (i) the long-run declining trend of food prices may come to a halt or even reverse due to the shifting balance between supply and demand; (ii) short-run price fluctuations are mainly attributable to sizeable, though low-probability, shocks to output such as inclement weather; and (iii) the impact of monetary policy, though small in normal times, is nonlinear and asymmetric, and can become large if the real rate passes a certain threshold.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Norbert Funke & Weifeng Wu & Yanliang Miao, 2011. "Reviving the Competitive Storage Model: A Holistic Approach to Food Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 2011/064, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/064
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24720
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carroll, Christopher D., 2006. "The method of endogenous gridpoints for solving dynamic stochastic optimization problems," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 312-320, June.
    2. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 2003. "A model of commodity prices after Sir Arthur Lewis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 289-310, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hirbod Assa & Amal Dabbous & Nikolay Gospodinov, 2013. "A staggered pricing approach to modeling speculative storage: implications for commodity price dynamics," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2013-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    2. Pfuderer, Simone, 2014. "Are stockholders rational? An experimental approach to testing the competitive storage model," 88th Annual Conference, April 9-11, 2014, AgroParisTech, Paris, France 170537, Agricultural Economics Society.
    3. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Li, Jian, 2016. "On the Economics of Commodity Price Dynamics and Price Volatility," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235070, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Kleppe, Tore Selland & Oglend, Atle, 2017. "Estimating the competitive storage model: A simulated likelihood approach," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 4(C), pages 39-56.
    5. Nader Karimi & Hirbod Assa & Erfan Salavati & Hojatollah Adibi, 2023. "Calibration of Storage Model by Multi-Stage Statistical and Machine Learning Methods," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(4), pages 1437-1455, December.
    6. Ahmed, Shamseddin Musa, 2020. "Impacts of drought, food security policy and climate change on performance of irrigation schemes in Sub-saharan Africa: The case of Sudan," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    7. Shrimali, Gireesh & Tirumalachetty, Sumala, 2013. "Renewable energy certificate markets in India—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 702-716.
    8. Tore S. Kleppe & Atle Oglend, 2019. "Can limits‐to‐arbitrage from bounded storage improve commodity term‐structure modeling?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 865-889, July.
    9. David M Arseneau & Sylvain Leduc, 2013. "Commodity Price Movements in a General Equilibrium Model of Storage," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 199-224, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sebastian Dyrda & Marcelo Pedroni, 2015. "Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Model with Uninsurable Idiosyncratic Shocks," Working Papers tecipa-550, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    2. Greg Kaplan, 2012. "Inequality and the life cycle," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 3(3), pages 471-525, November.
    3. Damiano Sandri & FabiÁn Valencia, 2013. "Financial Crises and Recapitalizations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 59-86, December.
    4. Peijnenburg, J.M.J. & Nijman, T.E. & Werker, B.J.M., 2010. "Optimal Annuitization with Incomplete Annuity Markets and Background Risk During Retirement," Other publications TiSEM 0b8e2130-a64a-48c1-97d6-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Ma, Chang, 2020. "Financial stability, growth and macroprudential policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    6. Stephen J. Terry, 2017. "Alternative Methods for Solving Heterogeneous Firm Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(6), pages 1081-1111, September.
    7. Adrien Auclert, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2333-2367, June.
    8. Rabah Arezki & Daniel Lederman & Hongyan Zhao, 2014. "The Relative Volatility of Commodity Prices: A Reappraisal," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(3), pages 939-951.
    9. Roche, Hervé & Tompaidis, Stathis & Yang, Chunyu, 2013. "Why does junior put all his eggs in one basket? A potential rational explanation for holding concentrated portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 775-796.
    10. repec:mea:meawpa:13274 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Jaroslava Hlouskova & Michael Obersteiner, 2021. "Agricultural commodity price dynamics and their determinants: A comprehensive econometric approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1245-1273, November.
    12. J. Ignacio García‐Pérez & Sílvio Rendon, 2020. "Family job search and wealth: The added worker effect revisited," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(4), pages 1431-1459, November.
    13. Winkelried, Diego, 2021. "Unit roots in real primary commodity prices? A meta-analysis of the Grilli and Yang data set," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    14. Reona Hagiwara, 2022. "Welfare Effects of Health Insurance Reform: The Role of Elastic Medical Demand," IMES Discussion Paper Series 22-E-05, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    15. de Groot, Oliver & Haas, Alexander, 2023. "The signalling channel of negative interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 87-103.
    16. Den Haan, Wouter J. & Rendahl, Pontus, 2010. "Solving the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty using explicit aggregation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 69-78, January.
    17. Arango, Santiago & Larsen, Erik, 2011. "Cycles in deregulated electricity markets: Empirical evidence from two decades," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2457-2466, May.
    18. Joachim Hubmer & Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith., 2021. "Sources of US Wealth Inequality: Past, Present, and Future," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 391-455.
    19. Koijen, R.S.J. & Nijman, T.E. & Werker, B.J.M., 2006. "Optimal Portfolio Choice with Annuitization," Discussion Paper 2006-78, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    20. Mr. Damiano Sandri & Mr. Fabian Valencia, 2012. "Balance-Sheet Shocks and Recapitalizations," IMF Working Papers 2012/068, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Adrien Auclert & Bence Bardóczy & Matthew Rognlie & Ludwig Straub, 2021. "Using the Sequence‐Space Jacobian to Solve and Estimate Heterogeneous‐Agent Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2375-2408, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/064. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.