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Commodity price movements in a general equilibrium model of storage

  • David M. Arseneau
  • Sylvain Leduc

We embed the canonical rational expectations competitive storage model into a general equilibrium framework thereby allowing the non-linear commodity price dynamics implied by the competitive storage model to interact with the broader macroeconomy. Our main result is that the endogenous movement in interest rates implied under general equilibrium enhances the effects of competitive storage on commodity prices. Compared to a model in which the real interest rate is fixed, we find that storage in general equilibrium leads to more persistence in commodity prices and somewhat lower volatility. Moreover, the frequency of stockouts is lower in general equilibrium. A key mechanism driving this result is a link between the ability of the household to smooth consumption over time and the level of storage in the stochasic equilibrium. Finally, the model is used to examine the macroeconomic effects of both biofuel subsidies for ethanol producers and, separately, subsidies designed to insulate households from high food prices.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 1054.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1054
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  1. Bruce A. Babcock, 2011. "The Impact of Ethanol and Ethanol Subsidies on Corn Prices: Revisiting History," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 11-pb5, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  2. Martin Bodenstein & Luca Guerrieri, 2011. "Oil efficiency, demand, and prices: a tale of ups and downs," International Finance Discussion Papers 1031, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Julia K. Thomas, 2002. "Is lumpy investment relevant for the business cycle?," Staff Report 302, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Cafiero, Carlo & Bobenrieth H., Eugenio S.A. & Bobenrieth H., Juan R.A. & Wright, Brian D., 2011. "The empirical relevance of the competitive storage model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 44-54, May.
  5. Serena Ng & Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2000. "Explaining the Persistence of Commodity Prices," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 16(1/2), pages 149-171, October.
  6. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2001. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Working Papers 01-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  7. Norbert Funke & Weifeng Wu & Yanliang Miao, 2011. "Reviving the Competitive Storage Model; A Holistic Approach to Food Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 11/64, International Monetary Fund.
  8. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521326162 is not listed on IDEAS
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