Estimating a Nonlinear Rational Expectations Commodity Price Model with Unobservable State Variables
This paper is concerned with the estimation of a model in which a possibly serially correlated stochastic process, the "harvest" of an agricultural commodity, generates a competitive price in a market comprising both final consumers and risk-neutral speculators who can store the commodity at a cost in the anticipation of profit. Because storage cannot be negative, the relationship between prices and harvests is inherently nonlinear and is an unpromising candidate for a linear-quadratic model, or for linearization more generally. Instead, we calculate numerically a policy function in which price is a function of two unobservable state variables, the harvest and current availability, and we use the result to fit the price data. Copyright 1995 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Volume (Year): 10 (1995)
Issue (Month): S (Suppl. Dec.)
Pages: 9-40
| Handle: | RePEc:jae:japmet:v:10:y:1995:i:s:p:s9-40 |
| Contact details of provider: | Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/
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