IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/crm/wpaper/2022.html

The Role of Schools in Transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Virus: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Clara von Bismarck-Osten

    (University College London)

  • Kirill Borusyak

    (University College London and CEPR)

  • Uta Schönberg

    (University College London, CReAM, IAB and RWI)

Abstract

This paper considers the role of school closures in the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. To isolate the impact of the closures from other containment measures and identify a causal effect, we exploit variation in the start and end dates of the summer school and fall holiday across the 16 federal states in Germany. Leveraging a difference-in-differences design with staggered adoption, we show that neither the summer closures nor the closures in the fall have had any significant containing effect on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 among children or any spill-over effect on older generations. We also do not find any evidence that the return to school at full capacity after the summer holidays increased infections among children or adults. Instead, we find the number of children infected increased during the last weeks of the summer holiday and decreased in the first weeks after schools reopen, a pattern we attribute to travel returnees and increased testing.

Suggested Citation

  • Clara von Bismarck-Osten & Kirill Borusyak & Uta Schönberg, 2020. "The Role of Schools in Transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Virus: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Germany," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 2022, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    • Handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:2022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cream-migration.org/publ_uploads/CDP_22_20.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Isphording, Ingo E. & Lipfert, Marc & Pestel, Nico, 2020. "School Re-Openings after Summer Breaks in Germany Did Not Increase SARS-CoV-2 Cases," IZA Discussion Papers 13790, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Moritz Kuhn & Michèle Tertilt, 2020. "The short-run macro implications of school and childcare closures," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 006, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    3. Eric A. Hanushek & Ludger Woessmann, 2020. "The economic impacts of learning losses," OECD Education Working Papers 225, OECD Publishing.
    4. Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultfœuille, 2020. "Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2964-2996, September.
    5. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    6. Sergio Correia & Paulo Guimarães & Tom Zylkin, 2020. "Fast Poisson estimation with high-dimensional fixed effects," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 20(1), pages 95-115, March.
    7. Engzell, Per & Frey, Arun & Verhagen, Mark D., 2020. "Learning Inequality During the Covid-19 Pandemic," SocArXiv ve4z7, Center for Open Science.
    8. Alon, Titan & Doepke, Matthias & Olmstead-Rumsey, Jane & Tertilt, Michèle, 2020. "This Time It's Different: The Role of Women's Employment in a Pandemic Recession," IZA Discussion Papers 13562, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Jérôme Adda, 2016. "Economic Activity and the Spread of Viral Diseases: Evidence from High Frequency Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(2), pages 891-941.
    10. repec:boc:pcon20:13 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Clara Augustin & Daniel Gutknecht & Cenchen Liu, 2025. "Staggered Adoption DiD Designs with Misclassification and Anticipation," Papers 2507.20415, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    2. Carolin Linckh & Caroline Neuber-Pohl & Harald Pfeifer, 2023. "The employment effects of raising negotiated minimum wages for apprentices," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0202, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    3. Backhaus, Andreas, 2022. "International travel in times of the COVID-19 pandemic: The case of German school breaks," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    4. Petri Bockerman & Mika Haapanen & Christopher Jepsen, 2021. "Dark Passage: Mental Health Consequences of Parental Death," Working Papers 202107, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    5. Anna Godøy & Maja Weemes Grøtting & Rannveig Kaldager Hart, 2022. "Reopening schools in a context of low COVID-19 contagion: consequences for teachers, students and their parents," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 935-961, July.
    6. Werner, Katharina & Woessmann, Ludger, 2021. "The Legacy of COVID-19 in Education," IZA Discussion Papers 14796, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Natalia Danzer & Sebastian Garcia-Torres & Max Friedrich Steinhardt & Luca Stella, 2024. "Women in political power and school closure during COVID times," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 39(120), pages 765-810.
    8. Devi, Tanmay & Sengupta, Reshmi & Rooj, Debasis & Gopathi, Manvika, 2025. "Investing in education: The impact of scholarships on school attendance in India," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    9. Anger, Silke & Christoph, Bernhard & Galkiewicz, Agata & Margaryan, Shushanik & Peter, Frauke & Sandner, Malte & Siedler, Thomas, 2024. "War, international spillovers, and adolescents: Evidence from Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 181-193.
    10. Isphording, Ingo E. & Lipfert, Marc & Pestel, Nico, 2021. "Does re-opening schools contribute to the spread of SARS-CoV-2? Evidence from staggered summer breaks in Germany," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    11. Philipp Breidenbach & Timo Mitze, 2022. "Large-scale sport events and COVID-19 infection effects: evidence from the German professional football ‘experiment’," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 15-45.
    12. Alexander Cuntz & Matthias Sahli, 2021. "COVID-19 Impact on Artistic Income," WIPO Economic Research Working Papers 65, World Intellectual Property Organization - Economics and Statistics Division.
    13. Lattanzio, Salvatore, 2024. "Schools and the transmission of Sars-Cov-2: Evidence from Italy," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    14. Fischer Kai, 2022. "Thinning out spectators: Did football matches contribute to the second COVID-19 wave in Germany?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(4), pages 595-640, December.
    15. Stefan Lamp, 2023. "Sunspots That Matter: The Effect of Weather on Solar Technology Adoption," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(4), pages 1179-1219, April.
    16. Malte Sandner & Alexander Patzina & Silke Anger & Sarah Bernhard & Hans Dietrich, 2023. "The COVID-19 pandemic, well-being, and transitions to post-secondary education," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 461-483, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Youngsoo Jang & Minchul Yum, 2024. "Aggregate and Intergenerational Implications of School Closures: A Quantitative Assessment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 90-130, July.
    2. Dan Goldhaber & Scott A. Imberman & Katharine O. Strunk & Bryant G. Hopkins & Nate Brown & Erica Harbatkin & Tara Kilbride, 2022. "To What Extent Does In‐Person Schooling Contribute To The Spread Of Covid‐19? Evidence From Michigan And Washington," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 318-349, January.
    3. Johannes Buggle & Thierry Mayer & Seyhun Orcan Sakalli & Mathias Thoenig, 2023. "The Refugee’s Dilemma: Evidence from Jewish Migration out of Nazi Germany," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 1273-1345.
    4. Alex Hollingsworth & Krzysztof Karbownik & Melissa A. Thomasson & Anthony Wray, 2024. "The Gift of a Lifetime: The Hospital, Modern Medicine, and Mortality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(7), pages 2201-2238, July.
    5. Cucu, Florin, 2025. "Roads, internal migration and the spatial sorting of U.S. high-skill workers," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    6. Bacher, Etienne & Beine, Michel & Rapoport, Hillel, 2025. "Do Anti-Immigration Attitudes Discourage Immigration? Evidence from a New Instrument," IZA Discussion Papers 18192, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Wang, Lisha & Pan, Minjie & Qian, Xinlei & Lv, Kangjuan, 2025. "Do specialized courts matter? Environmental judiciary and corporate emissions in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    8. Chen, Simiao & Jin, Zhangfeng & Bloom, David E., 2020. "Act Early to Prevent Infections and Save Lives: Causal Impact of Diagnostic Efficiency on the COVID-19 Pandemic," IZA Discussion Papers 13749, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Maclean, J. Catherine & Pichler, Stefan & Ziebarth, Nicolas R., 2020. "Mandated Sick Pay: Coverage, Utilization, and Welfare Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 13132, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Harald Oberhofer & Michael Pfaffermayr & Yvonne Wolfmayr, 2021. "Die Auswirkungen des Brexit auf Österreichs Wirtschaft," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 66782, October.
    11. Max Brüning & Josselin Thuilliez, 2019. "Mortality and Macroeconomic Conditions: What Can We Learn From France?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(5), pages 1747-1764, October.
    12. Natalie Chen & Dennis Novy, 2022. "Gravity and Heterogeneous Trade Cost Elasticities," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(644), pages 1349-1377.
    13. Luisa Kinzius & Alexander Sandkamp & Erdal Yalcin, 2019. "Trade protection and the role of non-tariff barriers," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(4), pages 603-643, November.
    14. Simone Balestra & Helge Liebert & Nicole Maestas & Tisamarie B. Sherry, 2021. "Behavioral Responses to Supply-Side Drug Policy During the Opioid Epidemic," NBER Working Papers 29596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Jordi Ripollés & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2021. "African Asylum Seekers in Europe: The Interplay between Foreign Aid and Governance in Origin Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 829-865, November.
    16. Joana Garcia, 2022. "Multinationals and services imports from havens: when policies stand in the way of tax planning," Working Papers w202214, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    17. Delatte, Anne-Laure & Guillin, Amelie & Vicard, Vincent, 2022. "Grey zones in global finance: The distorted geography of cross-border investments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    18. Alexander Cuntz & Alessio Muscarnera & Utsav Bahl & Prince C. Oguguo, 2024. "Are the best tunes played on the oldest fiddles? Distribution and digitization of recorded classical music," WIPO Economic Research Working Papers 87, World Intellectual Property Organization - Economics and Statistics Division.
    19. Weidner, Martin & Zylkin, Thomas, 2021. "Bias and consistency in three-way gravity models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    20. Claudio Neidhöfer & Guido Neidhöfer, 2020. "The Effectiveness of School Closures and Other Pre-Lockdown COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies in Argentina, Italy, and South Korea," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0266, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:2022. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Moritz Lubczyk or Matthew Nibloe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cmucluk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.