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The role of schools in transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus: quasi-experimental evidence from Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Clara von Bismarck-Osten
  • Kirill Borusyak
  • Uta Schönberg

Abstract

This paper considers the role of school closures in the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. To isolate the impact of the closures from other containment measures and identify a causal effect, we exploit variation in the start and end dates of the summer and fall school holidays across the 16 federal states in Germany using a difference-in-differences design with staggered adoption. We show that neither the summer closures nor the closures in the fall had a significant containing effect on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 among children or a spill-over effect on older generations. There is also no evidence that the return to school at full capacity after the summer holidays increased infections among children or adults. Instead, we find that the number of children infected increased during the last weeks of the summer holiday and decreased in the first weeks after schools reopened, a pattern we attribute to travel returnees.

Suggested Citation

  • Clara von Bismarck-Osten & Kirill Borusyak & Uta Schönberg, 2022. "The role of schools in transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus: quasi-experimental evidence from Germany," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(109), pages 87-130.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecpoli:v:37:y:2022:i:109:p:87-130.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/epolic/eiac001
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    Cited by:

    1. Petri Bockerman & Mika Haapanen & Christopher Jepsen, 2021. "Dark Passage: Mental Health Consequences of Parental Death," Working Papers 202107, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    2. Werner, Katharina & Woessmann, Ludger, 2021. "The Legacy of COVID-19 in Education," IZA Discussion Papers 14796, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Stefan Lamp, 2023. "Sunspots That Matter: The Effect of Weather on Solar Technology Adoption," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(4), pages 1179-1219, April.
    4. Clara Augustin & Daniel Gutknecht & Cenchen Liu, 2025. "Staggered Adoption DiD Designs with Misclassification and Anticipation," Papers 2507.20415, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    5. Backhaus, Andreas, 2022. "International travel in times of the COVID-19 pandemic: The case of German school breaks," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    6. Devi, Tanmay & Sengupta, Reshmi & Rooj, Debasis & Gopathi, Manvika, 2025. "Investing in education: The impact of scholarships on school attendance in India," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    7. Anger, Silke & Christoph, Bernhard & Galkiewicz, Agata & Margaryan, Shushanik & Peter, Frauke & Sandner, Malte & Siedler, Thomas, 2024. "War, international spillovers, and adolescents: Evidence from Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 181-193.
    8. Alexander Cuntz & Matthias Sahli, 2021. "COVID-19 Impact on Artistic Income," WIPO Economic Research Working Papers 65, World Intellectual Property Organization - Economics and Statistics Division.
    9. Lattanzio, Salvatore, 2024. "Schools and the transmission of Sars-Cov-2: Evidence from Italy," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    10. Malte Sandner & Alexander Patzina & Silke Anger & Sarah Bernhard & Hans Dietrich, 2023. "The COVID-19 pandemic, well-being, and transitions to post-secondary education," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 461-483, June.
    11. Carolin Linckh & Caroline Neuber-Pohl & Harald Pfeifer, 2023. "The employment effects of raising negotiated minimum wages for apprentices," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0202, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    12. Natalia Danzer & Sebastian Garcia-Torres & Max Friedrich Steinhardt & Luca Stella, 2024. "Women in political power and school closure during COVID times," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 39(120), pages 765-810.
    13. Fischer Kai, 2022. "Thinning out spectators: Did football matches contribute to the second COVID-19 wave in Germany?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(4), pages 595-640, December.
    14. Anna Godøy & Maja Weemes Grøtting & Rannveig Kaldager Hart, 2022. "Reopening schools in a context of low COVID-19 contagion: consequences for teachers, students and their parents," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 935-961, July.
    15. Isphording, Ingo E. & Lipfert, Marc & Pestel, Nico, 2021. "Does re-opening schools contribute to the spread of SARS-CoV-2? Evidence from staggered summer breaks in Germany," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    16. Philipp Breidenbach & Timo Mitze, 2022. "Large-scale sport events and COVID-19 infection effects: evidence from the German professional football ‘experiment’," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 15-45.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy

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