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School Re-Openings after Summer Breaks in Germany Did Not Increase SARS-CoV-2 Cases

Author

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  • Isphording, Ingo E.

    (IZA)

  • Lipfert, Marc

    (University of Bonn)

  • Pestel, Nico

    (Maastricht University)

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of the end of school summer breaks on SARS-CoV-2 cases in Germany. We exploit variation in the staggered timing of summer breaks across federal states which allows us to implement an event study design. We base our analysis on official daily counts of confirmed coronavirus infections by age groups across all 401 German counties. We consider an event window of two weeks before and three weeks after the end of summer breaks. Over a large number of specifications, sub-group analyses and robustness checks, we do not find any evidence of a positive effect of school re-openings on case numbers. On the contrary, our preferred specification indicates that the end of summer breaks had a negative effect on the number of new confirmed cases. Three weeks after the end of summer breaks, cases have decreased by 0.55 cases per 100,000 inhabitants or 27 percent of a standard deviation. Our results are not explained by changes in mobility patterns around school re-openings arising from travel returnees. We conclude that school re-openings in Germany under strict hygiene measures combined with quarantine and containment measures have not increased the number of newly confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Suggested Citation

  • Isphording, Ingo E. & Lipfert, Marc & Pestel, Nico, 2020. "School Re-Openings after Summer Breaks in Germany Did Not Increase SARS-CoV-2 Cases," IZA Discussion Papers 13790, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13790
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    1. Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultfœuille, 2020. "Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2964-2996, September.
    2. Nicola Fuchs-Schünde & Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2022. "The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare Effects of Covid-19 School Closures," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(645), pages 1647-1683.
    3. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    4. Kurt Schmidheiny & Sebastian Siegloch, 2019. "On Event Study Designs and Distributed-Lag Models: Equivalence, Generalization and Practical Implications," CESifo Working Paper Series 7481, CESifo.
    5. Kurt Schmidheiny & Sebastian Siegloch, 2023. "On event studies and distributed‐lags in two‐way fixed effects models: Identification, equivalence, and generalization," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(5), pages 695-713, August.
    6. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
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    Cited by:

    1. Clara von Bismarck-Osten & Kirill Borusyak & Uta Schönberg, 2022. "The role of schools in transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus: quasi-experimental evidence from Germany," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(109), pages 87-130.
    2. Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Dirk Krueger & André Kurmann & Etienne Lalé & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2023. "The Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Policy Responses to the Covid-19 School Closures," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 35-98, March.
    3. Dan Goldhaber & Scott A. Imberman & Katharine O. Strunk & Bryant G. Hopkins & Nate Brown & Erica Harbatkin & Tara Kilbride, 2022. "To What Extent Does In‐Person Schooling Contribute To The Spread Of Covid‐19? Evidence From Michigan And Washington," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 318-349, January.
    4. Youngsoo Jang & Minchul Yum, 2024. "Aggregate and Intergenerational Implications of School Closures: A Quantitative Assessment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 90-130, July.
    5. Dena Bravata & Jonathan H. Cantor & Neeraj Sood & Christopher M. Whaley, 2021. "Back to School: The Effect of School Visits During COVID-19 on COVID-19 Transmission," NBER Working Papers 28645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Franziska Hommes & Welmoed van Loon & Marlene Thielecke & Igor Abramovich & Sascha Lieber & Ralf Hammerich & Sabine Gehrke-Beck & Elisabeth Linzbach & Angela Schuster & Katja von dem Busche & Stefanie, 2021. "SARS-CoV-2 Infection, Risk Perception, Behaviour and Preventive Measures at Schools in Berlin, Germany, during the Early Post-Lockdown Phase: A Cross-Sectional Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-12, March.
    7. Casey B. Mulligan, 2021. "The incidence and magnitude of the health costs of in-person schooling during the COVID-19 pandemic," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 188(3), pages 303-332, September.
    8. Julia Bock-Schappelwein & Ulrike Famira-Mühlberger, 2021. "Die COVID-19-Pandemie und Schule. Eine bildungsökonomische Kurzanalyse," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67333.
    9. Anna Godøy & Maja Weemes Grøtting & Rannveig Kaldager Hart, 2022. "Reopening schools in a context of low COVID-19 contagion: consequences for teachers, students and their parents," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 935-961, July.
    10. Philipp Breidenbach & Timo Mitze, 2022. "Large-scale sport events and COVID-19 infection effects: evidence from the German professional football ‘experiment’," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 15-45.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy

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