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Mostly Harmless Simulations? Using Monte Carlo Studies for Estimator Selection

Author

Listed:
  • Advani, Arun

    (University of Warwick, CAGE, and Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Kitagawa, Toru

    (University College London and cemmap)

  • Sloczynski, Tymon

    (Brandeis University and IZA)

Abstract

We consider two recent suggestions for how to perform an empirically motivated Monte Carlo study to help select a treatment effect estimator under unconfoundedness. We show theoretically that neither is likely to be informative except under restrictive conditions that are unlikely to be satisfied in many contexts. To test empirical relevance, we also apply the approaches to a real-world setting where estimator performance is known. Both approaches are worse than random at selecting estimators which minimise absolute bias. They are better when selecting estimators that minimise mean squared error. However, using a simple bootstrap is at least as good and often better. For now researchers would be best advised to use a range of estimators and compare estimates for robustness.

Suggested Citation

  • Advani, Arun & Kitagawa, Toru & Sloczynski, Tymon, 2019. "Mostly Harmless Simulations? Using Monte Carlo Studies for Estimator Selection," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 411, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:411
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    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/411-2019_advani.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frölich, Markus & Huber, Martin & Wiesenfarth, Manuel, 2017. "The finite sample performance of semi- and non-parametric estimators for treatment effects and policy evaluation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 91-102.
    2. Martin Huber & Michael Lechner & Giovanni Mellace, 2016. "The Finite Sample Performance of Estimators for Mediation Analysis Under Sequential Conditional Independence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 139-160, January.
    3. Bodory, Hugo & Camponovo, Lorenzo & Huber, Martin & Lechner, Michael, 2016. "The Finite Sample Performance of Inference Methods for Propensity Score Matching and Weighting Estimators," IZA Discussion Papers 9706, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Keisuke Hirano & Guido W. Imbens & Geert Ridder, 2003. "Efficient Estimation of Average Treatment Effects Using the Estimated Propensity Score," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1161-1189, July.
    5. Arun Advani & Toru Kitagawa & Tymon S{l}oczy'nski, 2018. "Mostly Harmless Simulations? Using Monte Carlo Studies for Estimator Selection," Papers 1809.09527, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2019.
    6. Bryan S. Graham & Cristine Campos De Xavier Pinto & Daniel Egel, 2012. "Inverse Probability Tilting for Moment Condition Models with Missing Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1053-1079.
    7. repec:taf:emetrv:v:38:y:2019:i:2:p:193-207 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Hansen, Christian B., 2007. "Generalized least squares inference in panel and multilevel models with serial correlation and fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 670-694, October.
    9. Juan Díaz & Tomás Rau & Jorge Rivera, 2015. "A Matching Estimator Based on a Bilevel Optimization Problem," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(4), pages 803-812, October.
    10. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    11. repec:wly:japmet:v:34:y:2019:i:6:p:893-910 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Heckman, J.J. & Hotz, V.J., 1988. "Choosing Among Alternative Nonexperimental Methods For Estimating The Impact Of Social Programs: The Case Of Manpower Training," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 88-12, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
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    15. Zhong Zhao, 2004. "Using Matching to Estimate Treatment Effects: Data Requirements, Matching Metrics, and Monte Carlo Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 91-107, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lechner, Michael, 2018. "Modified Causal Forests for Estimating Heterogeneous Causal Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 12040, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Arun Advani & Toru Kitagawa & Tymon Słoczyński, 2019. "Mostly harmless simulations? Using Monte Carlo studies for estimator selection," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 893-910, September.
    3. Susan Athey & Guido Imbens & Jonas Metzger & Evan Munro, 2019. "Using Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Networks for the Design of Monte Carlo Simulations," Papers 1909.02210, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    empirical Monte Carlo studies; program evaluation; selection on observables; treatment effects JEL Classification: C15; C21; C25; C52;

    JEL classification:

    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J71 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Discrimination - - - Hiring and Firing

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