IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade Protectionism and US Manufacturing Employment


  • Li, Chunding

    (China Agricultural University, Beijing)

  • Wang, Jing

    (Western University (UWO))

  • Whalley, John

    (Western University (UWO))


This paper uses a numerical global general equilibrium model to simulate the possible effects of US initiated trade protection measures on US manufacturing employment. The simulation results show that US trade protection measures do not increase but will instead reduce manufacturing employment, and US losses will further increase if trade partners take retaliatory measures. The mechanism is that although the substitution effects between domestic and foreign goods have positive impacts, the substitution effects between manufacturing and service sectors and the retaliatory effects both have negative influences, therefore the whole effect is that the US will lose manufacturing employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Chunding & Wang, Jing & Whalley, John, 2019. "Trade Protectionism and US Manufacturing Employment," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 410, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
  • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:410

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Antoine Bouet & David Laborde, 2017. "US trade wars with emerging countries: make America (and its partners) lose again !," Post-Print hal-02149133, HAL.
    2. Feenstra, Robert C. & Ma, Hong & Xu, Yuan, 2019. "US exports and employment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 46-58.
    3. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    4. Ann Harrison & Margaret McMillan, 2022. "Offshoring Jobs? Multinationals And U.S. Manufacturing Employment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Globalization, Firms, and Workers, chapter 11, pages 255-273, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Dennis Novy, 2013. "Gravity Redux: Measuring International Trade Costs With Panel Data," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 101-121, January.
    6. Meixin Guo & Lin Lu & Liugang Sheng & Miaojie Yu, 2018. "The Day After Tomorrow: Evaluating the Burden of Trump's Trade War," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 17(1), pages 101-120, Winter/Sp.
    7. Avraham Ebenstein & Ann Harrison & Margaret McMillan & Shannon Phillips, 2022. "Estimating The Impact Of Trade And Offshoring On American Workers Using The Current Population Surveys," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Globalization, Firms, and Workers, chapter 12, pages 275-289, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Fontagne, Lionel & Harrison, Ann (ed.), 2017. "The Factory-Free Economy: Outsourcing, Servitization, and the Future of Industry," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198779162.
    9. Lionel Fontagné & Ann Harrison, 2017. "The Factory-Free Economy. Outsourcing, Servitization, and the Future of Industry," Post-Print halshs-02923043, HAL.
    10. Gabriel Felbermayr & Marina Steininger & Erdal Yalcin, 2017. "Konsequenzen einer protektionistischen Handelspolitik der USA," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 89.
    11. G. C. Archibald & R. C. Lipsey, 1960. "A Symposium on Monetary Theory: Monetary and Value Theory: Further Comment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(1), pages 50-56.
    12. Wilko Bolt & Kostas Mavromatis & Sweder van Wijnbergen, "undated". "The Global Macroeconomics of a Trade War: The EAGLE model on the US-China trade conflict," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-015/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Chunding Li & Chuantian He & Chuangwei Lin, 2018. "Economic Impacts of the Possible China–US Trade War," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(7), pages 1557-1577, May.
    14. Monique Carvalho & André Azevedo & Angélica Massuquetti, 2019. "Emerging Countries and the Effects of the Trade War between US and China," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-21, May.
    15. Carlos Caceres & Rui Mano & Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro, 2019. "Trade Wars and Trade Deals: Estimated Effects using a Multi-Sector Model," IMF Working Papers 2019/143, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Zhuo Chen & Bo Yan, 2022. "The impact of trade policy on soybean futures in China," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 1152-1163, June.
    2. Edward Price, 2020. "Jurisdictional Competition in the International Financial System," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 11(3), pages 400-402, May.
    3. Christian Dustmann, 2021. "Trade, Labor Markets, and the China Shock: What Can Be Learned from the German Experience?," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2112, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
    4. Oshodi, Ayodele Folorunso & Kilishi, Abdulhakeem Abdullahi & Muhammed, Ismail Aremu, 2021. "The Nexus between Trade Policy and Manufacturing Employment in Nigeria: A Panel Cointegrating Regression," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(1), December.
    5. Munisamy Gopinath, 2021. "Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect Agriculture?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 604-618, June.
    6. Jayamaha, D.K.J.S. & Lidula, N.W.A. & Rajapakse, A.D., 2020. "Protection and grounding methods in DC microgrids: Comprehensive review and analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    7. Shouxin Bai & Shicheng Zhou & Yuyao Sheng & Xingwei Wang, 2022. "Does Lockdown Reduce Employment in Major Developing Countries? An Assessment Based on Multiregional Input–Output Model and Scenario Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-19, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muendler, Marc-Andreas, 2017. "Trade, technology, and prosperity: An account of evidence from a labor-market perspective," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2017-15, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    2. Harrison Ann, 2018. "International Trade or Technology? Who is Left Behind and What to do about it," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Boehm, Christoph E. & Flaaen, Aaron & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2020. "Multinationals, Offshoring, and the Decline of U.S. Manufacturing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Lionel Fontagné & Ann Harrison, 2017. "The Factory-Free Economy. Outsourcing, Servitization, and the Future of Industry," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-02923043, HAL.
    5. NI Bin & KATO Hayato & LIU Yang, 2020. "Does It Matter Where You Invest? The Impact of FDI on Domestic Job Creation and Destruction," Discussion papers 20008, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Liu, Runjuan & Trefler, Daniel, 2019. "A sorted tale of globalization: White collar jobs and the rise of service offshoring," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 105-122.
    7. Thomas Kemeny & David Rigby & Abigail Cooke, 2015. "Cheap Imports and the Loss of US Manufacturing Jobs," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(10), pages 1555-1573, October.
    8. Marcio Cruz & Emmanuel Milet & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2020. "Online exports and the skilled-unskilled wage gap," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-24, May.
    9. Eppinger, Peter S., 2019. "Service offshoring and firm employment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 209-228.
    10. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Gary Pisano & Pian Shu, 2020. "Foreign Competition and Domestic Innovation: Evidence from US Patents," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 357-374, September.
    11. Daron Acemoglu & David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Brendan Price, 2016. "Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag of the 2000s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 141-198.
    12. Avraham Ebenstein & Ann Harrison & Margaret McMillan, 2015. "Why are American Workers getting Poorer? China, Trade and Offshoring," NBER Working Papers 21027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Monarch, Ryan & Park, Jooyoun & Sivadasan, Jagadeesh, 2017. "Domestic gains from offshoring? Evidence from TAA-linked U.S. microdata," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 150-173.
    14. Aleksandra Parteka & Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz, 2017. "Workers, Firms and Task Heterogeneity in International Trade Analysis: An Example of Wage Effects of Trade Within GVC," Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review, Centre for Strategic and International Entrepreneurship at the Cracow University of Economics., vol. 5(2), pages 9-25.
    15. Benjamin G. Hyman, 2022. "Can Displaced Labor Be Retrained? Evidence from Quasi-Random Assignment to Trade Adjustment Assistance," Working Papers 22-05, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    16. Connell, William & Simons, Wouter & Vandenbussche, Hylke, 2018. "The cost of non-TTIP: A Global Value Chain Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 12705, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Dani Rodrik, 2018. "Populism and the economics of globalization," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 1(1), pages 12-33, June.
    18. Aleksandra Parteka & Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz, 2020. "Wage response to global production links: evidence for workers from 28 European countries (2005–2014)," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(4), pages 769-801, November.
    19. Tiago Pereira, 2016. "The effect of developing countries' competition on regional labour markets in Portugal," GEE Papers 0058, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Mar 2016.
    20. Ignat Stepanok, 2016. "Creative destruction and unemployment in an open economy model," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(3), pages 931-948, August.

    More about this item


    Trade Protectionism; Manufacturing Employment; United States; Numerical Simulation JEL Classification: F16; C68; F62;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:410. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jane Snape (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.