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Export Credit Guarantees and Export Performance: An Empirical Analysis for Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Felbermayr
  • Erdal Yalcin
  • Gabriel J. Felbermayr

Abstract

Recent literature finds that exporters are particularly vulnerable to financial market frictions. As a consequence, exports may be lower than their efficient levels. For this reason, many countries support exporters by underwriting export credit guarantees. The empirical evidence on the effects of those policies is, however, very limited. In this paper, we use sectoral data on export credit guarantees issued by the German government. We investigate whether those guarantees indeed do increase exports, and whether they remedy the exportrestricting effect of credit market imperfections both on the sectoral and on the export market levels. Exploiting the sectoral structure of a rich three-ways panel data set of German exports, we control for unobserved heterogeneity on the country-year, sectoryear, and country-sector dimensions. We document a robust export-increasing effect of guarantees. There is some evidence that the effect is larger for export markets with poor financial institutions and in sectors that rely more on external finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Felbermayr & Erdal Yalcin & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2011. "Export Credit Guarantees and Export Performance: An Empirical Analysis for Germany," ifo Working Paper Series 116, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_116
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    Cited by:

    1. Brandi, Clara & Schmitz, Birgit, 2015. "Trade flows in developing countries: what is the role of trade finance?," Discussion Papers 13/2015, German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE).
    2. Yalcin, Erdal & Heiland, Inga, 2014. "Export Market Risk and the Role of Public Credit Guarantees," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100478, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Gabriel Felbermayr & Erdal Yalcin & Inga Heiland, 2013. "Beschäftigungseffekte der Exportkreditgarantien der Bundesrepublik Deutschland (Hermesdeckungen)," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 63.
    4. Johannes Van Biesebroeck & Jozef Konings & Christian Volpe Martincus, 2016. "Did export promotion help firms weather the crisis?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 31(88), pages 653-702.
    5. Kemal Turkcan, 2016. "Evolving Patterns of Payment Methods in Turkish Foreign Trade," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 2(1), pages 3-29, June.
    6. Harald Badinger & Thomas Url, 2014. "Users and Effects of Austrian Export Credit Guarantees," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(3), pages 39-44, August.
    7. Arup Chatterjee & Arjun Goswami & Jules Hugot & Marianne Vital, 2020. "The Case for Regional Cooperation in Trade and Investment Finance for Asia," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 11(3), pages 367-374, May.
    8. Defever, F. & Riaño, A. & Varela, G., 2020. "Evaluating the Impact of Export Finance Support On Firm-level Export Performance: Evidence from Pakistan," Working Papers 20/14, Department of Economics, City University London.
    9. Janda, Karel, 2014. "Czech Export Credit Agencies and their Market Power," MPRA Paper 54097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Auboin, Marc & Engemann, Martina, 2013. "Trade finance in periods of crisis: What have we learned in recent years?," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2013-01, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    11. Kugler Franziska & Schwerdt Guido & Wößmann Ludger, 2014. "Ökonometrische Methoden zur Evaluierung kausaler Effekte der Wirtschaftspolitik," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 105-132, June.
    12. Agarwal, Natasha & Lodefalk, Magnus & Tang, Aili & Tano, Sofia & Wang, Zheng, 2018. "Institutions for Non-Simultaneous Exchange: Microeconomic Evidence from Export Insurance," Working Papers 2018:12, Örebro University, School of Business, revised 13 Nov 2019.
    13. Natasha Agarwal & Zheng Wang, 2018. "Does the US EXIM Bank really promote US exports?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 1378-1414, May.
    14. Karel Janda, 2014. "Export Credit Agencies in the Czech Republic and Their Market Power," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(03), pages 45-51, August.
    15. Salvador Gil-Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero & José Antonio Martínez-Serrano, 2017. "Does the Degree of Development Matter in the Impact of Banking Crises on International Trade?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 829-848, August.
    16. Harald Badinger & Thomas Url, 2013. "Export Credit Guarantees and Export Performance: Evidence from Austrian Firm-level Data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1115-1130, September.
    17. Zheng, J., 2012. "Essays on pensions, health expectancy and credit insurance," Other publications TiSEM 922b794a-7d11-4463-9843-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Auboin, Marc & Engemann, Martina, 2012. "Testing the trade credit and trade link: Evidence from data on export credit insurance," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2012-18, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    19. Defever, F. & Riaño, A. & Varela, G., 2020. "Evaluating the Impact of Export Finance Support On Firm-level Export Performance: Evidence from Pakistan," Working Papers 20/14, Department of Economics, City University London.
    20. Gabriel Felbermayr & Inga Heiland & Erdal Yalcin & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2012. "Mitigating Liquidity Constraints: Public Export Credit Guarantees in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 3908, CESifo.
    21. Marc Auboin & Martina Engemann, 2014. "Testing the trade credit and trade link: evidence from data on export credit insurance," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(4), pages 715-743, November.
    22. Inga Heiland & Erdal Yalcin, 2015. "Export Market Risk and the Role of State Credit Guarantees," CESifo Working Paper Series 5176, CESifo.
    23. Thomas Url, 2016. "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Auswirkungen der Exportgarantien in Österreich," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58839, August.
    24. Karel Janda, 2014. "Export Credit Agencies in the Czech Republic and Their Market Power," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(3), pages 45-51, August.
    25. Auboin, Marc & DiCaprio, Alisa, 2016. "Why do trade finance gaps persist: Does it matter for trade and development?," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2017-01, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial development; credit constraints; gravity equation; financial crisis.;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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