IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_3873.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Simple Theory of Trade, Finance, and Firm Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Felbermayr

    ()

  • Gilbert Spiegel

Abstract

We propose a stylized monopolistic competition model of international trade where firms differ with respect to the expected economic lifetime of their innovations. Upon entry, they receive a commonly observed signal which is updated over time. Jointly with partial irreversibility of investment, this generates heterogeneity in effective discount rates and, thus, in the cost of finance. In line with evidence, the model predicts a negative correlation between firms’ financing costs and their age. Over a firm’s life-cycle, per period net profits and the export participation probability grow. Exporters are less likely to exit than purely domestic firms. Belief updating entails excessive financing of incumbents relative to entrants and too much exporting. Asymptotically, trade liberalization reduces overall general equilibrium exit rates, but it does not necessarily increase welfare. With multiple asymmetric export markets, firms gradually expand their market coverage and total sales. A confidence crisis modeled by belief reversion causes an over-proportional decrease in exports, thereby offering a novel interpretation of the recent trade slump.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Felbermayr & Gilbert Spiegel, 2012. "A Simple Theory of Trade, Finance, and Firm Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series 3873, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3873
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp3873.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2007. "Firms in International Trade," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 105-130, Summer.
    2. Kristian Behrens & Gregory Corcos & Giordano Mion, 2013. "Trade Crisis? What Trade Crisis?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 702-709, May.
    3. Araujo, Luis & Mion, Giordano & Ornelas, Emanuel, 2016. "Institutions and export dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 2-20.
    4. Lawless, Martina, 2009. "Firm export dynamics and the geography of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 245-254, April.
    5. Albornoz, Facundo & Calvo Pardo, Héctor F. & Corcos, Gregory & Ornelas, Emanuel, 2012. "Sequential exporting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 17-31.
    6. Marina-Eliza Spaliara & Holger Görg, 2009. "Financial health, exports, and firm survival: A comparison of British and French firms," Discussion Paper Series 2009_18, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.
    7. Greenaway, David & Gullstrand, Joakim & Kneller, Richard, 2008. "Surviving globalisation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 264-277, March.
    8. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    9. Andrew B Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2007. "Firm Structure, Multinationals, and Manufacturing Plant Deaths," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 193-204, May.
    10. Costa, Stefano & Malgarini, Marco & Margani, Patrizia, 2012. "Access to credit for Italian firms: new evidence from the ISTAT confidence business surveys," MPRA Paper 41389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Aeberhardt, Romain & Buono, Ines & Fadinger, Harald, 2014. "Learning, incomplete contracts and export dynamics: Theory and evidence from French firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 219-249.
    12. Paul R. Bergin & Reuven Glick, 2017. "Endogenous Tradability and Some Macroeconomic Implications," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 7, pages 187-210 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Richard Baldwin & James Harrigan, 2011. "Zeros, Quality, and Space: Trade Theory and Trade Evidence," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 60-88, May.
    14. Impullitti, Giammario & Irarrazabal, Alfonso A. & Opromolla, Luca David, 2013. "A theory of entry into and exit from export markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 75-90.
    15. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-959, December.
    16. Schmitt, Nicolas & Yu, Zhihao, 2001. "Economies of scale and the volume of intra-industry trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 127-132, December.
    17. Hartmut Egger & Udo Kreickemeier, 2017. "Firm Heterogeneity and the Labor Market Effects of Trade Liberalization," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: International Trade and Labor Markets Welfare, Inequality and Unemployment, chapter 10, pages 265-306 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Kremp, Elizabeth & Sevestre, Patrick, 2013. "Did the crisis induce credit rationing for French SMEs?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3757-3772.
    19. Costas Arkolakis & Natalia Ramondo & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare & Stephen Yeaple, 2013. "Innovation and Production in the Global Economy," NBER Working Papers 18972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Ashcraft, Adam B. & Santos, João A.C., 2009. "Has the CDS market lowered the cost of corporate debt?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 514-523, May.
    21. Horst Rottmann & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2013. "A micro data approach to the identification of credit crunches," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(17), pages 2423-2441, June.
    22. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2004. "Entry, Expansion, and Intensity in the US Export Boom, 1987-1992," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 662-675, September.
    23. Sanghamitra Das & Mark J. Roberts & James R. Tybout, 2007. "Market Entry Costs, Producer Heterogeneity, and Export Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(3), pages 837-873, May.
    24. Facundo Albornoz & Hector Calvo-Pardo & Gregory Corcos & Emanuel Ornelas, 2012. "Sequential exporting: how firms break into foreign markets," CentrePiece - The Magazine for Economic Performance 364, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    25. Nguyen, Daniel X., 2012. "Demand uncertainty: Exporting delays and exporting failures," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 336-344.
    26. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum, 2013. "Labor Market Frictions, Firm Growth, and International Trade," NBER Working Papers 19492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Irlacher, Michael & Unger, Florian, 2018. "Capital market imperfections and trade liberalization in general equilibrium," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 402-423.
    2. Ina Jäkel, 2014. "Import-push or export-pull? An industry-level analysis of the impact of trade on firm exit," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 747-775, November.
    3. Benedikt Heid, 2014. "Essays on International Trade and Development," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 55.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    international trade; monopolistic competition; heterogeneous firms; heterogeneous fixed costs; Bayesian updating;

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3873. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.