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Chicken or Egg? The PVAR Econometrics of Transportation

  • Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt
  • Kristoffer Moeller
  • Nicolai Wendland

To analyze the mutually dependent relationship between local economic performance and the demand for and supply of transport services, we employ the structural panel VAR method that is popular in the macroeconomic literature, but which has not previously been applied to the modeling of within-city dynamics of transportation. We focus on a within-city panel of Berlin, Germany, during the heyday of the construction of its dense public transit network (1880-1914). Our results suggest that economic outcomes and supply of transport infrastructure mutually determine each other. Both transport demand and supply seem to be driven more by firms than by residents.

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File URL: http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/textonly/SERC/publications/download/sercdp0158.pdf
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Paper provided by Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE in its series SERC Discussion Papers with number 0158.

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Date of creation: Mar 2014
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Handle: RePEc:cep:sercdp:0158
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/SERC/publications/default.asp

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  1. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Nicolai Wendland, 2009. "Looming stations: valuing transport innovations in historical context," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 25514, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Nicolai Wendland, 2013. "How polycentric is a monocentric city?: centers, spillovers and hysteresis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 44318, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  3. Stephen Gibbons & Teemu Lyytikainen & Henry G. Overman & Rosa Sanchis-Guarner, 2012. "New road infrastructure: the effects on firms," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58527, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  4. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
  5. Gibbons, Stephen & Machin, Stephen, 2005. "Valuing rail access using transport innovations," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 148-169, January.
  6. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  7. David Levinson, 2007. "Density and Dispersion: The Co-Development of Land use and Rail in London," Working Papers 200801, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
  8. Vasilis Sarafidis & Donald Robertson, 2009. "On the impact of error cross-sectional dependence in short dynamic panel estimation," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(1), pages 62-81, 03.
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