IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cep/sercdp/0158.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Chicken or Egg? The PVAR Econometrics of Transportation

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt
  • Kristoffer Moeller
  • Nicolai Wendland

Abstract

To analyze the mutually dependent relationship between local economic performance and the demand for and supply of transport services, we employ the structural panel VAR method that is popular in the macroeconomic literature, but which has not previously been applied to the modeling of within-city dynamics of transportation. We focus on a within-city panel of Berlin, Germany, during the heyday of the construction of its dense public transit network (1880-1914). Our results suggest that economic outcomes and supply of transport infrastructure mutually determine each other. Both transport demand and supply seem to be driven more by firms than by residents.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Kristoffer Moeller & Nicolai Wendland, 2014. "Chicken or Egg? The PVAR Econometrics of Transportation," SERC Discussion Papers 0158, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:sercdp:0158
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/sercdp0158.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gibbons, Stephen & Lyytikäinen, Teemu & Overman, Henry G. & Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa, 2019. "New road infrastructure: The effects on firms," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 35-50.
    2. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Wendland, Nicolai, 2009. "Looming stations: Valuing transport innovations in historical context," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 97-99, October.
    3. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Nicolai Wendland, 2013. "How polycentric is a monocentric city? Centers, spillovers and hysteresis," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 53-83, January.
    4. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    6. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Wendland, Nicolai, 2011. "Fifty years of urban accessibility: The impact of the urban railway network on the land gradient in Berlin 1890-1936," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 77-88, March.
    7. Gibbons, Stephen & Machin, Stephen, 2005. "Valuing rail access using transport innovations," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 148-169, January.
    8. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Wendland, Nicolai, 2009. "Looming stations: Valuing transport innovations in historical context," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 97-99, October.
    9. Vasilis Sarafidis & Donald Robertson, 2009. "On the impact of error cross-sectional dependence in short dynamic panel estimation," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(1), pages 62-81, March.
    10. McMillen, Daniel P., 1996. "One Hundred Fifty Years of Land Values in Chicago: A Nonparametric Approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 100-124, July.
    11. David Levinson, 2008. "Density and dispersion: the co-development of land use and rail in London," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 55-77, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rayaprolu, Hema & Levinson, David, 2024. "Co-evolution of public transport access and ridership," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    2. Qiu, Guo & Xu, Wangtu (Ato) & Li, Ling, 2018. "Key factors to annual investment in public transportation sector: The case of China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-19.
    3. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Nitsch, Volker & Wendland, Nicolai, 2019. "Ease vs. noise: Long-run changes in the value of transport (dis)amenities," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    4. Waights, Sevrin, 2018. "Does the law of one price hold for hedonic prices?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 55(15), pages 3299-3317.
    5. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Nitsch, Volker & Wendland, Nicolai, 2019. "Ease versus noise: long-run changes in the value of transport (dis)amenities," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102824, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Ahfeldt, Gabriel M. & Pietrostefani, Elisabetta, 2017. "The compact city in empirical research: A quantitative literature review," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 83638, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Jean Dubé & Charles-David Babin & Jean-Christophe Dubé & Hemza Lekkat & Alexandre Potvin & Olivier Ringue, 2017. "What comes first, residential or commercial development? Measuring the causal links for a Canadian city over a century," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 57-74, March.
    8. Kristoffer Moeller, 2018. "Culturally clustered or in the cloud? How amenities drive firm location decision in Berlin," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 728-758, September.
    9. Jussila Hammes, Johanna, 2015. "Political economics or Keynesian demand-side policies: What determines transport infrastructure investment in Swedish municipalities?," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 49-60.
    10. Shutian Zhou & Guofang Zhai & Yijun Shi, 2018. "What Drives the Rise of Metro Developments in China? Evidence from Nantong," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-20, August.
    11. Philipp Piribauer & Peter Huber, 2017. "Beschäftigungseffekte entlang des hochrangigen Straßennetzes in Österreich," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 60468, July.
    12. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Pietrostefani, Elisabetta, 2019. "The economic effects of density: A synthesis," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 93-107.
    13. Gabriel Ahlfeldt & Volker Nitsch & Nicolai Wendland, 2016. "Ease vs. Noise: On the Conflicting Effects of Transportation Infrastructure," CESifo Working Paper Series 6058, CESifo.
    14. Damian Damianov & Cheng Yan & Xiangdong Wang, 2018. "Measures of mortgage default risk and local house price dynamics ," ERES eres2018_163, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    15. Odolinski, Kristofer & Wheat, Phillip, 2016. "Dynamics in rail infrastructure provision: maintenance and renewal costs in Sweden," Working papers in Transport Economics 2016:23, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 11 Dec 2017.
    16. Gabriel M Ahlfeldt, 2018. "Weights to Address Non-parallel Trends in Panel Difference-in-differences Models," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 64(2), pages 216-240.
    17. Gabriel M. Ahfeldt & Elisabetta Pietrostefani, 2017. "The Compact City in Empirical Research: A Quantitative Literature Review," SERC Discussion Papers 0215, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    18. Jiang, Liangyu & Xuan, Ye & Zhang, Kerong, 2025. "Dynamic interaction and evolution analysis of the resource-environment-economy-society complex system in China under the advancement of smart cities," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    19. Odolinski, Kristofer & Wheat, Phill, 2018. "Dynamics in rail infrastructure provision: Maintenance and renewal costs in Sweden," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 21-30.
    20. Marta Santagata, 2022. "Roads and intra‐national trade: Evidence from Italian regions," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(6), pages 1383-1409, December.
    21. Li, Hongbo & Liu, Yali & Peng, Kaili, 2018. "Characterizing the relationship between road infrastructure and local economy using structural equation modeling," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 17-25.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Waights, Sevrin, 2018. "Does the law of one price hold for hedonic prices?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 55(15), pages 3299-3317.
    2. Nicolai Wendland, 2015. "All access: a micro-level case study on the secondary center of Berlin (1871–1936)," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(2), pages 375-399, March.
    3. Gabriel M Ahlfeldt, 2013. "If We Build it, Will They Pay? Predicting Property Price Effects of Transport Innovations," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 45(8), pages 1977-1994, August.
    4. Rosa M. González-Marrero & Rosa M. Lorenzo-Alegría & Gustavo A. Marrero, 2011. "Los Efectos Territoriales de las Infraestructuras: La inversión en redes de alta velocidad ferroviaria," Economic Reports 05-2011, FEDEA.
    5. Shadi O. Tehrani & Shuling J. Wu & Jennifer D. Roberts, 2019. "The Color of Health: Residential Segregation, Light Rail Transit Developments, and Gentrification in the United States," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-19, September.
    6. Andre Gbato, 2017. "Impact of Taxation on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: New Evidence Based on a New Data Set," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(11), pages 173-193, November.
    7. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Arne Feddersen, 2010. "From periphery to core: economic adjustments to high speed rail," Working Papers 2010/38, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    8. Dong, Hongwei, 2017. "Rail-transit-induced gentrification and the affordability paradox of TOD," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-10.
    9. Rosa Sanchis-Guarner, 2012. "Driving Up Wages: The Effects of Road Construction in Great Britain," SERC Discussion Papers 0120, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    10. Claudia N. Berg & Uwe Deichmann & Yishen Liu & Harris Selod, 2017. "Transport Policies and Development," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(4), pages 465-480, April.
    11. Andre Gbato, 2017. "Impact of Taxation on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: New Evidence Based on a New Data Set," Post-Print hal-01673738, HAL.
    12. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Wendland, Nicolai, 2011. "Fifty years of urban accessibility: The impact of the urban railway network on the land gradient in Berlin 1890-1936," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 77-88, March.
    13. Li, Mingxi, 2024. "Transportation, decentralization, and path dependence: How did the old tramway shape Shanghai, China?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    14. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M., 2012. "Rail mega-projects in the realm of inter- and intra-city accessibility: evidence and outlooks for Berlin," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 43493, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Cem Ertur & Antonio Musolesi, 2017. "Weak and Strong Cross‐Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 477-503, April.
    16. Hany Eldemerdash & Hugh Metcalf & Sara Maioli, 2014. "Twin deficits: new evidence from a developing (oil vs. non-oil) countries’ perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 825-851, November.
    17. Ostadzad, Ali Hossein, 2022. "Innovation and carbon emissions: Fixed-effects panel threshold model estimation for renewable energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 602-617.
    18. Naima Chrid & Sami Saafi & Mohamed Chakroun, 2021. "Export Upgrading and Economic Growth: a Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(2), pages 811-841, June.
    19. László KÓNYA, 2023. "Per Capita Income Convergence and Divergence of Selected OECD Countries to and from the US: A Reappraisal for the period 1900-2018," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 23(1), pages 33-56.
    20. Antonio Afonso & Hüseyin Sen & Ayse Kaya, 2021. "Government Size, Unemployment and Inflation Nexus in Eight Large Emerging Market Economies," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 235(1), pages 133-170, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transport; land use; Berlin; history; panel vector; autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • N73 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N74 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: 1913-

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cep:sercdp:0158. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/serc-papers/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.