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Chicken or Egg? The PVAR Econometrics of Transportation

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  • Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt
  • Kristoffer Moeller
  • Nicolai Wendland

Abstract

To analyze the mutually dependent relationship between local economic performance and the demand for and supply of transport services, we employ the structural panel VAR method that is popular in the macroeconomic literature, but which has not previously been applied to the modeling of within-city dynamics of transportation. We focus on a within-city panel of Berlin, Germany, during the heyday of the construction of its dense public transit network (1880-1914). Our results suggest that economic outcomes and supply of transport infrastructure mutually determine each other. Both transport demand and supply seem to be driven more by firms than by residents.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Kristoffer Moeller & Nicolai Wendland, 2014. "Chicken or Egg? The PVAR Econometrics of Transportation," SERC Discussion Papers 0158, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:sercdp:0158
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    1. Gibbons, Stephen & Lyytikäinen, Teemu & Overman, Henry G. & Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa, 2019. "New road infrastructure: The effects on firms," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 35-50.
    2. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Wendland, Nicolai, 2009. "Looming stations: Valuing transport innovations in historical context," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 97-99, October.
    3. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Nicolai Wendland, 2013. "How polycentric is a monocentric city? Centers, spillovers and hysteresis," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 53-83, January.
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    6. Gibbons, Stephen & Machin, Stephen, 2005. "Valuing rail access using transport innovations," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 148-169, January.
    7. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Wendland, Nicolai, 2009. "Looming stations: Valuing transport innovations in historical context," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 97-99, October.
    8. Vasilis Sarafidis & Donald Robertson, 2009. "On the impact of error cross-sectional dependence in short dynamic panel estimation," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(1), pages 62-81, March.
    9. McMillen, Daniel P., 1996. "One Hundred Fifty Years of Land Values in Chicago: A Nonparametric Approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 100-124, July.
    10. David Levinson, 2008. "Density and dispersion: the co-development of land use and rail in London," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 55-77, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Ahlfeldt & Elisabetta Pietrostefani, 2017. "The Economic Effects of Density: A Synthesis," CESifo Working Paper Series 6744, CESifo.
    2. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Nitsch, Volker & Wendland, Nicolai, 2019. "Ease vs. noise: Long-run changes in the value of transport (dis)amenities," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    3. Qiu, Guo & Xu, Wangtu (Ato) & Li, Ling, 2018. "Key factors to annual investment in public transportation sector: The case of China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-19.
    4. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M., 2018. "Weights to address non‐parallel trends in panel difference‐in‐differences models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87666, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Gabriel M. Ahfeldt & Elisabetta Pietrostefani, 2017. "The Compact City in Empirical Research: A Quantitative Literature Review," SERC Discussion Papers 0215, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
    6. Waights, Sevrin, 2018. "Does the law of one price hold for hedonic prices?," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 3299-3317.
    7. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Nitsch, Volker & Wendland, Nicolai, 2019. "Ease versus noise: long-run changes in the value of transport (dis)amenities," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102824, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Ahfeldt, Gabriel M. & Pietrostefani, Elisabetta, 2017. "The compact city in empirical research: A quantitative literature review," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 83638, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Pietrostefani, Elisabetta, 2019. "The economic effects of density: A synthesis," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 93-107.
    10. Jean Dubé & Charles-David Babin & Jean-Christophe Dubé & Hemza Lekkat & Alexandre Potvin & Olivier Ringue, 2017. "What comes first, residential or commercial development? Measuring the causal links for a Canadian city over a century," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 57-74, March.
    11. Kristoffer Moeller, 2018. "Culturally clustered or in the cloud? How amenities drive firm location decision in Berlin," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 728-758, September.
    12. Jussila Hammes, Johanna, 2015. "Political economics or Keynesian demand-side policies: What determines transport infrastructure investment in Swedish municipalities?," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 49-60.
    13. Shutian Zhou & Guofang Zhai & Yijun Shi, 2018. "What Drives the Rise of Metro Developments in China? Evidence from Nantong," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(8), pages 1-20, August.
    14. Philipp Piribauer & Peter Huber, 2017. "Beschäftigungseffekte entlang des hochrangigen Straßennetzes in Österreich," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 60468.
    15. Odolinski, Kristofer & Wheat, Phill, 2018. "Dynamics in rail infrastructure provision: Maintenance and renewal costs in Sweden," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 21-30.
    16. Gabriel M Ahlfeldt, 2018. "Weights to Address Non-parallel Trends in Panel Difference-in-differences Models," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 64(2), pages 216-240.
    17. Gabriel Ahlfeldt & Volker Nitsch & Nicolai Wendland, 2016. "Ease vs. Noise: On the Conflicting Effects of Transportation Infrastructure," CESifo Working Paper Series 6058, CESifo.
    18. Damian Damianov & Cheng Yan & Xiangdong Wang, 2018. "Measures of mortgage default risk and local house price dynamics ," ERES eres2018_163, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    19. Odolinski, Kristofer & Wheat, Phillip, 2016. "Dynamics in rail infrastructure provision: maintenance and renewal costs in Sweden," Working papers in Transport Economics 2016:23, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 11 Dec 2017.
    20. Li, Hongbo & Liu, Yali & Peng, Kaili, 2018. "Characterizing the relationship between road infrastructure and local economy using structural equation modeling," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 17-25.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transport; land use; Berlin; history; panel vector; autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • N73 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N74 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: 1913-

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