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Chicken or Egg? The PVAR Econometrics of Transportation

  • Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt
  • Kristoffer Moeller
  • Nicolai Wendland

To analyze the mutually dependent relationship between local economic performance and the demand for and supply of transport services, we employ the structural panel VAR method that is popular in the macroeconomic literature, but which has not previously been applied to the modeling of within-city dynamics of transportation. We focus on a within-city panel of Berlin, Germany, during the heyday of the construction of its dense public transit network (1880-1914). Our results suggest that economic outcomes and supply of transport infrastructure mutually determine each other. Both transport demand and supply seem to be driven more by firms than by residents.

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Paper provided by Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE in its series SERC Discussion Papers with number 0158.

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Date of creation: Mar 2014
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Handle: RePEc:cep:sercdp:0158
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  1. David Levinson, 2007. "Density and Dispersion: The Co-Development of Land use and Rail in London," Working Papers 200801, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
  2. McMillen, Daniel P., 1996. "One Hundred Fifty Years of Land Values in Chicago: A Nonparametric Approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 100-124, July.
  3. Stephen Gibbons & Teemu Lyytikäinen & Henry Overman & Rosa Sanchis-Guarner, 2012. "New Road Infrastructure: the Effects on Firms," SERC Discussion Papers 0117, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
  4. Pesaran, M.H., 2003. "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0346, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Steve Gibbons & Stephen Machin, 2004. "Valuing Rail Access Using Transport Innovations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0611, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  6. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  7. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Nicolai Wendland, 2013. "How polycentric is a monocentric city? Centers, spillovers and hysteresis," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 53-83, January.
  8. Vasilis Sarafidis & Donald Robertson, 2009. "On the impact of error cross-sectional dependence in short dynamic panel estimation," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(1), pages 62-81, 03.
  9. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Wendland, Nicolai, 2009. "Looming stations: Valuing transport innovations in historical context," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 97-99, October.
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