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How polycentric is a monocentric city? Centers, spillovers and hysteresis

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  • Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt
  • Nicolai Wendland

Abstract

We assess the extent to which firms in an environment of decreasing transport costs and industrial transformation value the benefits of proximity to a historic central business district (CBD) and agglomeration economies in their location decisions. Taking a hybrid perspective of classical bid-rent theory and a world where clustering of economic activity is driven by between-firm spillovers, Berlin, Germany, from 1890 to 1936 serves as a case in point. Our results suggest that the average productivity effect of a doubling of between-firm spillovers over the study period increases from 3.5% to 8.3%. As the city transforms into a service-based economy, several micro-agglomerations emerge. Their locations close to the CBD still make the city look roughly monocentric. This is in line with a hysteresis effect in which second-nature geography drives the ongoing strength of a historic city center even though the importance of the originally relevant first-nature geography has vanished.
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  • Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Nicolai Wendland, 2013. "How polycentric is a monocentric city? Centers, spillovers and hysteresis," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 53-83, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jecgeo:v:13:y:2013:i:1:p:53-83
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    Cited by:

    1. Huai, Yue & Lo, Hong K. & Ng, Ka Fai, 2021. "Monocentric versus polycentric urban structure: Case study in Hong Kong," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 99-118.
    2. Quentin Lepetit & Vincent Viguié & Charlotte Liotta, 2023. "A gridded dataset on densities, real estate prices, transport, and land use inside 192 worldwide urban areas," Post-Print hal-04433873, HAL.
    3. Waights, Sevrin, 2018. "Does the law of one price hold for hedonic prices?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 55(15), pages 3299-3317.
    4. Gabriel M Ahlfeldt, 2013. "If We Build it, Will They Pay? Predicting Property Price Effects of Transport Innovations," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 45(8), pages 1977-1994, August.
    5. Ahfeldt, Gabriel M. & Pietrostefani, Elisabetta, 2017. "The compact city in empirical research: A quantitative literature review," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 83638, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Yu-Hui Chen & Chien-Wen Peng & Chung-Hsien Yang, 2022. "Vertical Housing Price Gradient and Ground Floor Premium in Taipei City," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 25(2), pages 199-216.
    7. Mingshu Wang, 2021. "Polycentric urban development and urban amenities: Evidence from Chinese cities," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 48(3), pages 400-416, March.
    8. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Pietrostefani, Elisabetta, 2019. "The economic effects of density: A synthesis," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 93-107.
    9. Hanlon, W.Walker & Heblich, Stephan, 2022. "History and urban economics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    10. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Kristoffer Moeller & Nicolai Wendland, 2015. "Chicken or egg? The PVAR econometrics of transportation," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(6), pages 1169-1193.
    11. Jayson Danton & Alexander Himbert, 2017. "Residential Vertical Rent Gradients in the City," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 17.11, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    12. Mona Jabbari & Fernando Fonseca & Rui Ramos, 2021. "Accessibility and Connectivity Criteria for Assessing Walkability: An Application in Qazvin, Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-18, March.
    13. Gabriel M. Ahfeldt & Elisabetta Pietrostefani, 2017. "The Compact City in Empirical Research: A Quantitative Literature Review," SERC Discussion Papers 0215, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    14. Cuberes, David & Roberts, Jennifer & Sechel, Cristina, 2019. "Household location in English cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 120-135.
    15. Nicolai Wendland, 2015. "All access: a micro-level case study on the secondary center of Berlin (1871–1936)," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(2), pages 375-399, March.
    16. Eric J. Heikkila & Ying Xu, 2022. "Polycentric Urbanization and Sustainable Development in China," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(S1), pages 69-78, April.
    17. Hang Ren & Wei Guo & Zhenke Zhang & Leonard Musyoka Kisovi & Priyanko Das, 2020. "Population Density and Spatial Patterns of Informal Settlements in Nairobi, Kenya," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-14, September.
    18. Konstantin Axenov & Alisa Timoshina & Alexandra Zemlyanova, 2020. "Commercial redevelopment of industrial and residential periphery of Russian metropolis: St. Petersburg, 1989–2017," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 705-722, August.
    19. Jordan Rappaport, 2014. "Monocentric city redux," Research Working Paper RWP 14-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N7 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services
    • N9 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets

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