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Chicken or egg? The PVAR econometrics of transportation

Author

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  • Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt
  • Kristoffer Moeller
  • Nicolai Wendland

Abstract

To analyse the mutually dependent relationship between local economic performance, demand for and supply of transport services, we employ the structural panel VAR method that is popular in the macroeconomic literature, but has not previously been applied to the modelling of the within-city dynamics of transportation. We focus on a within-city panel of Berlin, Germany during the heyday of the construction of its dense public transit network (1890–1914). Our results suggest that economic outcomes and a supply of transport infrastructure mutually determine each other. We find a short-run (long-run) elasticity of property prices with respect to transport supply of 2% (8.5%). Both transport demand and supply seem to be driven more by firms than by residents.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Kristoffer Moeller & Nicolai Wendland, 2015. "Chicken or egg? The PVAR econometrics of transportation," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(6), pages 1169-1193.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:jecgeo:v:15:y:2015:i:6:p:1169-1193.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jeg/lbu037
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephen Gibbons & Teemu Lyytikäinen & Henry Overman & Rosa Sanchis-Guarner, 2012. "New Road Infrastructure: the Effects on Firms," SERC Discussion Papers 0117, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
    2. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Wendland, Nicolai, 2009. "Looming stations: Valuing transport innovations in historical context," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 97-99, October.
    3. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Nicolai Wendland, 2013. "How polycentric is a monocentric city? Centers, spillovers and hysteresis," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 53-83, January.
    4. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    6. Gibbons, Stephen & Machin, Stephen, 2005. "Valuing rail access using transport innovations," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 148-169, January.
    7. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Wendland, Nicolai, 2009. "Looming stations: Valuing transport innovations in historical context," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 97-99, October.
    8. Vasilis Sarafidis & Donald Robertson, 2009. "On the impact of error cross-sectional dependence in short dynamic panel estimation," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(1), pages 62-81, March.
    9. McMillen, Daniel P., 1996. "One Hundred Fifty Years of Land Values in Chicago: A Nonparametric Approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 100-124, July.
    10. David Levinson, 2008. "Density and dispersion: the co-development of land use and rail in London," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 55-77, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Elisabetta Pietrostefani, 2017. "The Economic Effects of Density: A Synthesis," SERC Discussion Papers 0210, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
    2. repec:eee:transa:v:107:y:2018:i:c:p:1-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Gabriel M. Ahfeldt & Elisabetta Pietrostefani, 2017. "The Compact City in Empirical Research: A Quantitative Literature Review," SERC Discussion Papers 0215, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
    4. repec:wfo:wstudy:60468 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Waights, Sevrin, 2018. "Does the law of one price hold for hedonic prices?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86418, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. repec:eee:ecotra:v:14:y:2018:i:c:p:21-30 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:oup:cesifo:v:64:y:2018:i:2:p:216-240. is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Gabriel Ahlfeldt & Volker Nitsch & Nicolai Wendland, 2016. "Ease vs. Noise: On the Conflicting Effects of Transportation Infrastructure," CESifo Working Paper Series 6058, CESifo Group Munich.
    9. Ahfeldt, Gabriel M. & Pietrostefani, Elisabetta, 2017. "The compact city in empirical research: A quantitative literature review," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 83638, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Odolinski, Kristofer & Wheat , Phillip, 2016. "Dynamics in rail infrastructure provision: maintenance and renewal costs in Sweden," Working papers in Transport Economics 2016:23, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    11. repec:spr:lsprsc:v:10:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s12076-016-0171-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Jussila Hammes, Johanna, 2015. "Political economics or Keynesian demand-side policies: What determines transport infrastructure investment in Swedish municipalities?," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 49-60.
    13. repec:eee:trapol:v:61:y:2018:i:c:p:17-25 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • N73 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N74 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: 1913-

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