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Chicken or egg? the PVAR econometrics of transportation

Author

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  • Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.
  • Moeller, Kristoffer
  • Wendland, Nicolai

Abstract

To analyze the mutually dependent relationship between local economic performance and the demand for and supply of transport services, we employ the structural panel VAR method that is popular in the macroeconomic literature, but which has not previously been applied to the modeling of within-city dynamics of transportation. We focus on a within-city panel of Berlin, Germany, during the heyday of the construction of its dense public transit network (1880–1914). Our results suggest that economic outcomes and supply of transport infrastructure mutually determine each other. Both transport demand and supply seem to be driven more by firms than by residents.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Moeller, Kristoffer & Wendland, Nicolai, 2014. "Chicken or egg? the PVAR econometrics of transportation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 57873, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:57873
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/57873/
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen Gibbons & Teemu Lyytikäinen & Henry Overman & Rosa Sanchis-Guarner, 2012. "New Road Infrastructure: the Effects on Firms," SERC Discussion Papers 0117, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
    2. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Wendland, Nicolai, 2009. "Looming stations: Valuing transport innovations in historical context," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 97-99, October.
    3. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Nicolai Wendland, 2013. "How polycentric is a monocentric city? Centers, spillovers and hysteresis," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 53-83, January.
    4. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    5. Gibbons, Stephen & Machin, Stephen, 2005. "Valuing rail access using transport innovations," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 148-169, January.
    6. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Wendland, Nicolai, 2009. "Looming stations: Valuing transport innovations in historical context," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 97-99, October.
    7. Vasilis Sarafidis & Donald Robertson, 2009. "On the impact of error cross-sectional dependence in short dynamic panel estimation," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(1), pages 62-81, March.
    8. McMillen, Daniel P., 1996. "One Hundred Fifty Years of Land Values in Chicago: A Nonparametric Approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 100-124, July.
    9. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    10. David Levinson, 2008. "Density and dispersion: the co-development of land use and rail in London," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 55-77, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Elisabetta Pietrostefani, 2017. "The Economic Effects of Density: A Synthesis," SERC Discussion Papers 0210, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
    2. Ahfeldt, Gabriel M. & Pietrostefani, Elisabetta, 2017. "The compact city in empirical research: A quantitative literature review," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 83638, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. repec:eee:transa:v:107:y:2018:i:c:p:1-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Damian Damianov & Cheng Yan & Xiangdong Wang, 2018. "Measures of mortgage default risk and local house price dynamics ," ERES eres2018_163, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    5. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:8:p:2931-:d:164315 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Gabriel M. Ahfeldt & Elisabetta Pietrostefani, 2017. "The Compact City in Empirical Research: A Quantitative Literature Review," SERC Discussion Papers 0215, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
    7. Odolinski, Kristofer & Wheat , Phillip, 2016. "Dynamics in rail infrastructure provision: maintenance and renewal costs in Sweden," Working papers in Transport Economics 2016:23, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    8. repec:wfo:wstudy:60468 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Waights, Sevrin, 2018. "Does the law of one price hold for hedonic prices?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86418, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. repec:spr:lsprsc:v:10:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s12076-016-0171-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:eee:ecotra:v:14:y:2018:i:c:p:21-30 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:oup:cesifo:v:64:y:2018:i:2:p:216-240. is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Gabriel Ahlfeldt & Volker Nitsch & Nicolai Wendland, 2016. "Ease vs. Noise: On the Conflicting Effects of Transportation Infrastructure," CESifo Working Paper Series 6058, CESifo Group Munich.
    14. Jussila Hammes, Johanna, 2015. "Political economics or Keynesian demand-side policies: What determines transport infrastructure investment in Swedish municipalities?," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 49-60.
    15. repec:eee:trapol:v:61:y:2018:i:c:p:17-25 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    transport; land use; Berlin; history; panel vector; autoregression;

    JEL classification:

    • N73 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N74 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: 1913-
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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