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Density and Dispersion: The Co-Development of Land use and Rail in London

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  • David Levinson

    () (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)

Abstract

This paper examines the changes that occurred in the rail network and density of population in London during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. It aims to disentangle the 'chicken and egg' problem of which came first, network or land development, through a set of statistical analyses using clearly distinguishing events by order. Using a panel of data representing the 33 boroughs of London over each decade from 1871 to 2001, the research finds that there is a positive feedback effect between population density and network density. Additional rail stations (either underground or surface) are positive factors leading to subsequent increases in population in the suburbs of London, while additional population density is a subsequent factor in deploying more rail. These effects differ in central London, where the additional accessibility produced by rail led to commercial development and led to a depopulation. There are also few differences in the effects associated with surface rail stations and underground stations, as the underground was able to get into central London in a way that surface rail could not. However the two networks were weak (and statistically insignificant) substitutes for each other in the suburbs, but the density of surface rail stations was a complement to the Underground in the center, though not vice versa.

Suggested Citation

  • David Levinson, 2007. "Density and Dispersion: The Co-Development of Land use and Rail in London," Working Papers 200801, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:nex:wpaper:codeploy
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11299/179976
    File Function: First version, 2007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Cervero & Mark Hansen, 2002. "Induced Travel Demand and Induced Road Investment: A Simultaneous Equation Analysis," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(3), pages 469-490, September.
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    7. David Levinson & Seshasai Kanchi, 2002. "Road Capacity and the Allocation of Time," Working Papers 200203, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    8. Pavithra Parthasarathi & David M. Levinson & Ramachandra Karamalaputi, 2003. "Induced Demand: A Microscopic Perspective," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(7), pages 1335-1351, June.
    9. Feng Xie & David Levinson, 2007. "The Weakest Link: A Model of the Decline of Surface Transportation Networks," Working Papers 200803, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    10. David Levinson & Wei Chen, 2004. "Paving New Ground," Working Papers 200509, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    11. Roger Behrens & Lisa Kane, 2004. "Road capacity change and its impact on traffic in congested networks: evidence and implications," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 587-602.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Kristoffer Moeller & Nicolai Wendland, 2015. "Chicken or egg? The PVAR econometrics of transportation," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(6), pages 1169-1193.
    2. Gabriel Ahlfeldt & Elisabetta Pietrostefani, 2017. "The Economic Effects of Density: A Synthesis," CESifo Working Paper Series 6744, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Atack, Jeremy & Margo, Robert, 2011. "The Impact of Access to Rail Transportation on Agricultural Improvement: The American Midwest as a Test Case, 1850-1860," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 4(2), pages 5-18.
    4. Banister, David, 2012. "Viewpoint: Assessing the reality—Transport and land use planning to achieve sustainability," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 5(3), pages 1-14.
    5. Gabriel M. Ahfeldt & Elisabetta Pietrostefani, 2017. "The Compact City in Empirical Research: A Quantitative Literature Review," SERC Discussion Papers 0215, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
    6. Ding, Rui & Ujang, Norsidah & Hamid, Hussain bin & Manan, Mohd Shahrudin Abd & Li, Rong & Wu, Jianjun, 2017. "Heuristic urban transportation network design method, a multilayer coevolution approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 71-83.
    7. Darroch, Nathan, 2014. "A brief introduction to London’s underground railways and land use," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 7(1), pages 105-116.
    8. Ahfeldt, Gabriel M. & Pietrostefani, Elisabetta, 2017. "The compact city in empirical research: A quantitative literature review," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 83638, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. repec:eee:transb:v:106:y:2017:i:c:p:464-488 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Robin Hickman & Moshe Givoni & David Bonilla & David Banister (ed.), 2015. "Handbook on Transport and Development," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14586, April.
    11. Xu, Mingtao & Ye, Zhirui & Shan, Xiaofeng, 2016. "Modeling, analysis, and simulation of the co-development of road networks and vehicle ownership," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 442(C), pages 417-428.
    12. Dröes, Martijn I. & Rietveld, Piet, 2015. "Rail-based public transport and urban spatial structure: The interplay between network design, congestion and urban form," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 421-439.
    13. Haibing Jiang & David Levinson, 2016. "Accessibility and the Evaluation of Investments on the Beijing Subway," Working Papers 000146, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    14. Guerra, Erick, 2014. "Mexico City's suburban land use and transit connection: The effects of the Line B Metro expansion," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 105-114.
    15. Fangxia Zhao & Jianjun Wu & Huijun Sun & Ziyou Gao & Ronghui Liu, 2016. "Population-driven Urban Road Evolution Dynamic Model," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 997-1018, December.
    16. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Elisabetta Pietrostefani, 2017. "The Economic Effects of Density: A Synthesis," SERC Discussion Papers 0210, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
    17. Feng Xie & David Levinson, 2010. "How streetcars shaped suburbanization: a Granger causality analysis of land use and transit in the Twin Cities," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 453-470, May.
    18. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Pietrostefani, Elisabetta, 2017. "The economic effects of density: A synthesis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 83628, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Israel, Emil & Cohen-Blankshtain, Galit, 2010. "Testing the decentralization effects of rail systems: Empirical findings from Israel," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 523-536, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transport; land use; London Underground; London railways; network growth; induced demand; induced supply;

    JEL classification:

    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • N73 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N74 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: 1913-

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