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Induced Supply: A Model of Highway Network Expansion at the Microscopic Level

  • David Levinson
  • Ramachandra Karamalaputi

This paper examines the growth of a highway network based on the present and historical conditions of the network, traffic demand, demographic characteristics, project costs, and budget. The effects of expanding a link on its upstream and downstream neighbours, as well as on parallel links, are also considered. Data span two decades and consist of physical attributes of the network, their construction and expansion history, and traffic levels on each of the links. An observation of this research is that the rate of network expansion has decreased over time. The pattern of expansion for each type of highway was found to differ only marginally, indicating that the model estimated is reliable for general use. The models developed here have important implications for planning and forecasting. © The London School of Economics and the University of Bath 2003

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Article provided by London School of Economics and University of Bath in its journal Journal of Transport Economics and Policy.

Volume (Year): 37 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 297-318

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Handle: RePEc:tpe:jtecpo:v:37:y:2003:i:3:p:297-318
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bath.ac.uk/e-journals/jtep

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  1. Crain, W Mark & Oakley, Lisa K, 1995. "The Politics of Infrastructure," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(1), pages 1-17, April.
  2. Brownstone, David & Train, Kenneth, 1999. "Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt3tb6j874, University of California Transportation Center.
  3. Bhat, Chandra R. & Castelar, Saul, 2002. "A unified mixed logit framework for modeling revealed and stated preferences: formulation and application to congestion pricing analysis in the San Francisco Bay area," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 593-616, August.
  4. Pavithra Parthasarathi & David Levinson & Ramachandra Karamalaputi, 2003. "Induced Demand: A Microscopic Perspective," Working Papers 200301, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
  5. Daniel McFadden & Kenneth Train, 2000. "Mixed MNL models for discrete response," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 447-470.
  6. Noland, Robert B., 2001. "Relationships between highway capacity and induced vehicle travel," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 47-72, January.
  7. Bhat, Chandra R., 2001. "Quasi-random maximum simulated likelihood estimation of the mixed multinomial logit model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 677-693, August.
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