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Induced Demand: A Microscopic Perspective

  • Pavithra Parthasarathi
  • David Levinson

    ()

    (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)

  • Ramachandra Karamalaputi

This paper analyzes the induced demand hypothesis using a disaggregate approach at the link level. A panel data set of Minneapolis/Saint Paul highway network for the years 1980-1998 is constructed. A model that predicts the traffic flow on the link in terms of Vehicle Kilometers Traveled (VKT) based on the flow and capacity conditions existing on the link in the previous years is specified and estimated. The flow and capacity conditions existing on the identified neighboring parallel links are also taken into account. Socio-demographic characteristics like population of the Minor Civil Division (MCD) to which the link belongs and the surrounding MCDs are also considered. The results indicate that capacity enhancements in the previous years, given by lane additions have a positive and significant effect on the VKT of the link, confirming the induced demand hypothesis. The elasticities are lower than reported in previous research, indicating the importance of separating new construction from the expansion of existing links.

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File URL: http://nexus.umn.edu/Papers/InducedDemand.pdf
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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0042098032000084631
File Function: First version, 2007
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Paper provided by University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group in its series Working Papers with number 200301.

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Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Urban Studies Volume 40, Number 7 June 2003 pp. 1335-1353.
Handle: RePEc:nex:wpaper:induceddemand
Contact details of provider: Postal: Dept. of Civil Engineering, 500 Pillsbury Drive SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455
Phone: +01 (612) 625-6354
Fax: +01 (612) 626-7750
Web page: http://nexus.umn.edu

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  1. Patricia Mokhtarian & Francisco Samaniego & Robert Shumway & Neil Willits, 2002. "Revisiting the notion of induced traffic through a matched-pairs study," Transportation, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 193-220, May.
  2. Hansen, Mark, 1995. "Do New Highways Generate Traffic?," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt3rj612zh, University of California Transportation Center.
  3. David Levinson & Ajay Kumar, 1994. "The Rational Locator: Why Travel Times Have Remained Stable," Working Papers 199402, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
  4. David Levinson & Seshasai Kanchi, 2002. "Road Capacity and the Allocation of Time," Working Papers 200203, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
  5. David Levinson & Ajay Kumar, 1994. "Integrating Feedback into the Transportation Planning Mode," Working Papers 199404, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
  6. Noland, Robert B., 2001. "Relationships between highway capacity and induced vehicle travel," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 47-72, January.
  7. Hansen, Mark & Huang, Yuanlin, 1997. "Road supply and traffic in California urban areas," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 205-218, May.
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