Induced Demand: A Microscopic Perspective
This paper analyses the induced demand hypothesis using a disaggregate approach at the link level. A panel data-set of Minneapolis-Saint Paul highway network for the years 1980-98 is constructed. A model that predicts the traffic flow on the link in terms of vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) based on the flow and capacity conditions existing on the link in the previous years is specified and estimated. The flow and capacity conditions existing on the identified neighbouring parallel links are also taken into account. Socio-demographic characteristics like population of the Minor Civil Division (MCD) to which the link belongs and the surrounding MCDs are also considered. The results indicate that capacity enhancements in the previous years, given by lane additions, have a positive and significant effect on the VKT of the link, confirming the induced demand hypothesis. The elasticities are lower than reported in previous research, indicating the importance of separating new construction from the expansion of existing links.
Volume (Year): 40 (2003)
Issue (Month): 7 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.gla.ac.uk/departments/urbanstudiesjournal|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Levinson & Ajay Kumar, 1994. "Integrating Feedback into the Transportation Planning Mode," Working Papers 199404, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
- David Levinson & Ajay Kumar, 1994. "The Rational Locator: Why Travel Times Have Remained Stable," Working Papers 199402, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
- Patricia Mokhtarian & Francisco Samaniego & Robert Shumway & Neil Willits, 2002. "Revisiting the notion of induced traffic through a matched-pairs study," Transportation, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 193-220, May.
- Hansen, Mark & Huang, Yuanlin, 1997. "Road supply and traffic in California urban areas," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 205-218, May.
- Noland, Robert B., 2001. "Relationships between highway capacity and induced vehicle travel," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 47-72, January.
- David Levinson & Seshasai Kanchi, 2002. "Road Capacity and the Allocation of Time," Working Papers 200203, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
- Hansen, Mark, 1995. "Do New Highways Generate Traffic?," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt3rj612zh, University of California Transportation Center.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:40:y:2003:i:7:p:1335-1351. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (SAGE Publications)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.