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Induced Demand: A Microscopic Perspective

  • Pavithra Parthasarathi

    (URS, 700 Thresher Square, Third Street South, Minneapolis, MN 55415, USA, pavithra_parthasarathi@URSCorp.com)

  • David M. Levinson

    (Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota, 500 Pillsbury Drive SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA, Levin031 @tc.umn.edu)

  • Ramachandra Karamalaputi

    (CTPS, 10 Park Plaza, Suite 2150, Boston, MA 02116, USA, knvrama@ ctps.org)

This paper analyses the induced demand hypothesis using a disaggregate approach at the link level. A panel data-set of Minneapolis-Saint Paul highway network for the years 1980-98 is constructed. A model that predicts the traffic flow on the link in terms of vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) based on the flow and capacity conditions existing on the link in the previous years is specified and estimated. The flow and capacity conditions existing on the identified neighbouring parallel links are also taken into account. Socio-demographic characteristics like population of the Minor Civil Division (MCD) to which the link belongs and the surrounding MCDs are also considered. The results indicate that capacity enhancements in the previous years, given by lane additions, have a positive and significant effect on the VKT of the link, confirming the induced demand hypothesis. The elasticities are lower than reported in previous research, indicating the importance of separating new construction from the expansion of existing links.

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File URL: http://usj.sagepub.com/content/40/7/1335.abstract
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Article provided by Urban Studies Journal Limited in its journal Urban Studies.

Volume (Year): 40 (2003)
Issue (Month): 7 (June)
Pages: 1335-1351

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Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:40:y:2003:i:7:p:1335-1351
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.gla.ac.uk/departments/urbanstudiesjournal

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  1. Hansen, Mark, 1995. "Do New Highways Generate Traffic?," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt3rj612zh, University of California Transportation Center.
  2. David Levinson & Ajay Kumar, 1994. "The Rational Locator: Why Travel Times Have Remained Stable," Working Papers 199402, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
  3. David Levinson & Seshasai Kanchi, 2002. "Road Capacity and the Allocation of Time," Working Papers 200203, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
  4. Noland, Robert B., 2001. "Relationships between highway capacity and induced vehicle travel," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 47-72, January.
  5. Patricia Mokhtarian & Francisco Samaniego & Robert Shumway & Neil Willits, 2002. "Revisiting the notion of induced traffic through a matched-pairs study," Transportation, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 193-220, May.
  6. David Levinson & Ajay Kumar, 1994. "Integrating Feedback into the Transportation Planning Mode," Working Papers 199404, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
  7. Hansen, Mark & Huang, Yuanlin, 1997. "Road supply and traffic in California urban areas," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 205-218, May.
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