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Highway capital expenditures and induced vehicle travel

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  • Concas, Sisinnio

Abstract

We investigate the effects of public capital investment on the demand for travel. We define capital stock as a productive flow that accounts for the physical deterioration of infrastructure over time. We present a framework where additions to capital stock only cover a portion of the long-run equilibrium level, and where policy decisions are dictated by expectations of economic and travel growth. To the extent that these investments increase productivity, they generate induced travel. Using a panel dataset at the state level for the period 1982-2005, we find that the elasticity of travel demand with respect to changes in state highway capital stock is equal to 0.041in the short run, while the long-run is 0.237. Our results show that changes in capital expenditures in response to past levels of traffic are characterized by a three-year lag, suggesting that the investment response to changes in travel is slow to converge to the desired long-run levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Concas, Sisinnio, 2012. "Highway capital expenditures and induced vehicle travel," MPRA Paper 40757, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Aug 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:40757
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. A. B. Prakash & E. H. D'A. Oliver & K. Balcombe, 2001. "Does building new roads really create extra traffic? Some new evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(12), pages 1579-1585.
    2. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    3. Gramlich, Edward M, 1994. "Infrastructure Investment: A Review Essay," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1176-1196, September.
    4. Fisher, Walter H & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1998. "Public Investment, Congestion, and Private Capital Accumulation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 399-413, March.
    5. Dessus, Sebastien & Herrera, Remy, 2000. "Public Capital and Growth Revisited: A Panel Data Assessment," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(2), pages 407-418, January.
    6. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    7. Phil Goodwin & Robert Noland, 2003. "Building new roads really does create extra traffic: a response to Prakash et al," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(13), pages 1451-1457.
    8. Demetriades, Panicos O & Mamuneas, Theofanis P, 2000. "Intertemporal Output and Employment Effects of Public Infrastructure Capital: Evidence from 12 OECD Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(465), pages 687-712, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    highway capital; public capital; capital accumulation; induced vehicle travel; induced vehicle miles of travel;

    JEL classification:

    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • R4 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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