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Building new roads really does create extra traffic: a response to Prakash et al

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  • Phil Goodwin
  • Robert Noland

Abstract

A recent article by Prakash et al. (Applied Economics, 33, 1579-85, 2001) asserted that induced travel effects do not occur. This paper is criticized on several grounds. It disregards much of the recent work in this area that has empirically estimated induced travel relationships. The models specified are inappropriate for properly addressing this question, both in their use of road expenditure data (based on a misunderstanding of how this may relate to traffic growth) and specification of a model that does not account for other variables that generally have a large effect on traffic growth (notably population and income growth). The evidence in the literature is summarized and an analysis of UK road expenditure data shows that expenditure is not a good measure of actual road capacity that is built.

Suggested Citation

  • Phil Goodwin & Robert Noland, 2003. "Building new roads really does create extra traffic: a response to Prakash et al," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(13), pages 1451-1457.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:13:p:1451-1457
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684032000089872
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. B. Prakash & E. H. D'A. Oliver & K. Balcombe, 2001. "Does building new roads really create extra traffic? Some new evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(12), pages 1579-1585.
    2. Noland, Robert B., 2001. "Relationships between highway capacity and induced vehicle travel," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 47-72, January.
    3. Daniel J. Graham & Stephen Glaister, 2002. "The Demand for Automobile Fuel: A Survey of Elasticities," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(1), pages 1-25, January.
    4. Robert Cervero & Mark Hansen, 2002. "Induced Travel Demand and Induced Road Investment: A Simultaneous Equation Analysis," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(3), pages 469-490, September.
    5. Robert Noland & William Cowart, 2000. "Analysis of Metropolitan Highway Capacity and the growth in vehicle miles of travel," Transportation, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 363-390, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Börjesson, Maria & Jonsson, R. Daniel & Lundberg, Mattias, 2014. "An ex-post CBA for the Stockholm Metro," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 135-148.
    2. David Levinson, 2008. "Density and dispersion: the co-development of land use and rail in London," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 55-77, January.
    3. Robert Noland, 2005. "Transport and Environmental Planning - Research, Rhetoric and Reality," ERSA conference papers ersa05p548, European Regional Science Association.
    4. Ison, Stephen & Merkert, Rico & Mulley, Corinne, 2014. "Policy approaches to public transport at airports—Some diverging evidence from the UK and Australia," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 265-274.
    5. Wu, Di & Yin, Yafeng & Lawphongpanich, Siriphong & Yang, Hai, 2012. "Design of more equitable congestion pricing and tradable credit schemes for multimodal transportation networks," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(9), pages 1273-1287.
    6. González, Rosa Marina & Marrero, Gustavo A., 2012. "Induced road traffic in Spanish regions: A dynamic panel data model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 435-445.
    7. Börjesson, Maria & Jonsson, R. Daniel & Berglund, Svante & Almström, Peter, 2014. "Land-use impacts in transport appraisal," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 82-91.
    8. Concas, Sisinnio, 2012. "Highway capital expenditures and induced vehicle travel," MPRA Paper 40757, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Aug 2012.
    9. Börjesson, Maria & Jonsson, Daniel & Lundberg , Mattias, 2013. "An ex-post CBA for the Stockholm Metro," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:34, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    10. Santos, Georgina & Behrendt, Hannah & Teytelboym, Alexander, 2010. "Part II: Policy instruments for sustainable road transport," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 46-91.

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