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Land-use impacts in transport appraisal



Cost-Benefit analysis (CBA) is sometimes criticized for not taking account of induced demand due to planning policy or relocalization triggered by large infrastructure investments. There is also a notion among planers and decision makers that accounting for these effects can underestimate the relative merits of rail investments. In this paper we explore if induced demand from relocalization triggered by an infrastructure investment have any significant impact on the CBA outcome. A second aim is to investigate the robustness of the relative CBA ranking of rail and road investments with respect to the general planning policy in the region 25 years ahead. We use a large-scale integrated land-use and traffic model calibrated for the Stockholm region. We find that the induced demand from relocalization triggered by infrastructure investments has a very limited impact on the CBA outcome. This result is largely due to the fact that the population that relocates over 20-30 years is limited in comparison to the total population. Moreover, the uncertainty in the CBA outcome, and in particular the relative ranking of rail and road investments, caused by uncertainties in future land-use policies is limited. As expected, however, the CBA outcome of rail investments is to a larger extent dependent on stronger planning policy than road investments. The results underscores that the planning policy in the region have a considerably stronger impact on accessibility and total car use than individual road or rail investments. Only the largest road investment, a second bypass in the region, induces car use of the same magnitude as the impact of the planning policy in the region.

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  • Börjesson, Maria & Jonsson , Daniel & Berglund, Svante & Almström , Peter, 2013. "Land-use impacts in transport appraisal," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:32, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2013_032

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Noland, Robert B., 2001. "Relationships between highway capacity and induced vehicle travel," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 47-72, January.
    2. Mackie, Peter & Preston, John, 1998. "Twenty-one sources of error and bias in transport project appraisal," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-7, January.
    3. Gerard Jong & Andrew Daly & Marits Pieters & Stephen Miller & Ronald Plasmeijer & Frank Hofman, 2007. "Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for The Netherlands," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 375-395, July.
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    More about this item


    Cost-Benefit Analysis; Transport planning; Land-use planning;

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning

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