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Twenty-one sources of error and bias in transport project appraisal

  • Mackie, Peter
  • Preston, John
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    Twenty-one sources of error and bias in the appraisal of transport projects are identified. These relate to objectives, definitions, data, models and evaluation conventions. Objectives may be unclear, incompletely specified or inconsistent with appraisal criteria. Definitions of study areas and scheme options for testing may bias the outcome. There are multifarious sources of data and model error. Double counting, inappropriate values, and failure to balance quantified and non-quantified items can all affect the evaluation. We suggest that there is a systematic tendency to a mega-error--that of appraisal optimism. Three antidotes to this condition are briefly suggested.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transport Policy.

    Volume (Year): 5 (1998)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 1-7

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:5:y:1998:i:1:p:1-7
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    1. Westin, Richard B., 1974. "Predictions from binary choice models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, May.
    2. Sugden, Robert, 1972. "Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Withdrawal of Railway Services," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 23-32, May.
    3. Mohring, Herbert, 1993. "Maximizing, measuring, and not double counting transportation-improvement benefits: A primer on closed- and open-economy cost-benefit analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 413-424, December.
    4. Szymanski, Stefan, 1995. "Rational pricing strategies in the cross channel market," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 169-177, July.
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