IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v5y1998i1p1-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Twenty-one sources of error and bias in transport project appraisal

Author

Listed:
  • Mackie, Peter
  • Preston, John

Abstract

Twenty-one sources of error and bias in the appraisal of transport projects are identified. These relate to objectives, definitions, data, models and evaluation conventions. Objectives may be unclear, incompletely specified or inconsistent with appraisal criteria. Definitions of study areas and scheme options for testing may bias the outcome. There are multifarious sources of data and model error. Double counting, inappropriate values, and failure to balance quantified and non-quantified items can all affect the evaluation. We suggest that there is a systematic tendency to a mega-error--that of appraisal optimism. Three antidotes to this condition are briefly suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • Mackie, Peter & Preston, John, 1998. "Twenty-one sources of error and bias in transport project appraisal," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-7, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:5:y:1998:i:1:p:1-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967-070X(98)00004-3
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Westin, Richard B., 1974. "Predictions from binary choice models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, May.
    2. Szymanski, Stefan, 1995. "Rational pricing strategies in the cross channel market," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 169-177, July.
    3. Mohring, Herbert, 1993. "Maximizing, measuring, and not double counting transportation-improvement benefits: A primer on closed- and open-economy cost-benefit analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 413-424, December.
    4. Sugden, Robert, 1972. "Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Withdrawal of Railway Services," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 23-32, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul Allison, 2020. "Better predicted probabilities from linear probability models with applications to multiple imputation," 2020 Stata Conference 1, Stata Users Group.
    2. Eliasson, Jonas & Fosgerau, Mogens, 2019. "Cost-benefit analysis of transport improvements in the presence of spillovers, matching and an income tax," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-9.
    3. Ginés de Rus & M. Pilar Socorro & Jorge Valido & Javier Campos, 2023. "Cost–Benefit Analysis of Transport Projects: Theoretical Framework and Practical Rules," Springer Books, in: Economic Evaluation of Transport Projects, chapter 0, pages 11-42, Springer.
    4. Daniel McFadden & Kenneth Train, 2000. "Mixed MNL models for discrete response," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 447-470.
    5. Lee, D. B., 2000. "Methods for evaluation of transportation projects in the USA," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 41-50, January.
    6. Wozniak, Gregory Dean, 1980. "The adoption decision: a human capital approach," ISU General Staff Papers 198001010800008144, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Truong, Truong P. & Hensher, David A., 2012. "Linking discrete choice to continuous demand within the framework of a computable general equilibrium model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(9), pages 1177-1201.
    8. Grimaldi, Raffaele & Beria, Paolo, 2013. "Open issues in the practice of cost benefit analysis of transport projects," MPRA Paper 53766, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Vörös, Tünde, 2018. "Methodological Challenges in Cost-Benefit Analysis," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 63(3), pages 402-423.
    10. Holmgren, Johan, 2020. "The effect of public transport quality on car ownership – A source of wider benefits?," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    11. Daniel McFadden, 1976. "A Comment on Discriminant Analysis "Versus" Logit Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 511-523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Prem J. Thapa, 2004. "On the risk of unemployment: a comparative assessment of the labour market success of migrants in Australia," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 7(2), pages 199-229, June.
    13. Lehner, Stephan & Peer, Stefanie, 2019. "The price elasticity of parking: A meta-analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 177-191.
    14. Margaret Aksoy-Pierson & Gad Allon & Awi Federgruen, 2013. "Price Competition Under Mixed Multinomial Logit Demand Functions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(8), pages 1817-1835, August.
    15. Jérôme Massiani, 2020. "Towards Improved Guidelines for Cost–Benefit Analysis of Sport and Cultural Events," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 39(3), pages 270-289, September.
    16. Panina, L.V. & Mohri, K. & Uchiyama, T., 1997. "Giant magneto-impedance (GMI) in amorphous wire, single layer film and sandwich film," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 241(1), pages 429-438.
    17. Lakshmanan, T.R., 2011. "The broader economic consequences of transport infrastructure investments," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-12.
    18. Wal van Lierop & Peter Nijkamp, 1980. "Spatial Choice and Interaction Models: Criteria and Aggregation," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 17(3), pages 299-311, October.
    19. Prem Thapa, 2004. "On The Risk Of Unemployment: A Comparative Assessment of the Labour Market Success of Migrants in Australia," CEPR Discussion Papers 473, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    20. Hansen, Wiljar & Johansen, Bjørn Gjerde, 2017. "Regional repercussions of new transport infrastructure investments: An SCGE model analysis of wider economic impacts," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 38-49.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:5:y:1998:i:1:p:1-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.