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Safety and travel time in cost-benefit analysis: A sensitivity analysis for North Rhine-Westphalia

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  • Holz-Rau, Christian
  • Scheiner, Joachim

Abstract

Decisions on large-scale infrastructure concepts are frequently based on cost benefit analysis (CBA). Using 431 road projects evaluated in the integrated transport planning process in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany (IGVP NRW) this paper examines the evaluation dimensions traffic safety (fatalities) and travel time in private passenger transport. The unit values of traffic fatalities and travel time are varied, and the effects of the variations on the rank order of the projects are examined. Target conflicts between safety and travel time are studied as well as the contribution of these two dimensions to the total benefit values. The sensitivity analysis shows that the evaluation results are fairly stable against variations in unit values of travel time and fatalities. The relevance of traffic safety in terms of its contribution to total benefit as well as in terms of the unit value appears to be relatively minor. The unit value of travel time is higher than that of lifetime. Some projects turn out as feasible in the evaluation even though they are likely to increase the number of fatalities. The paper therefore suggests the higher weighting of traffic safety in CBA.

Suggested Citation

  • Holz-Rau, Christian & Scheiner, Joachim, 2011. "Safety and travel time in cost-benefit analysis: A sensitivity analysis for North Rhine-Westphalia," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 336-346, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:18:y:2011:i:2:p:336-346
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    1. Entorf, Horst, 2013. "Der Wert der Sicherheit: Anmerkungen zur Ökonomie der Sicherheit [The value of safety: Some remarks on the economics of safety]," MPRA Paper 49690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Noland, Robert B., 2013. "From theory to practice in road safety policy: Understanding risk versus mobility," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 71-84.
    3. Maria Börjesson & Jonas Eliasson & Mattias Lundberg, 2014. "Is CBA Ranking of Transport Investments Robust?," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 48(2), pages 189-204, May.
    4. Asplund, Disa & Eliasson, Jonas, 2016. "Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 195-205.
    5. Mouter, Niek & Annema, Jan Anne & van Wee, Bert, 2013. "Ranking the substantive problems in the Dutch Cost–Benefit Analysis practice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 241-255.
    6. Mackie, Peter & Worsley, Tom & Eliasson, Jonas, 2014. "Transport appraisal revisited," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 3-18.

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