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Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for The Netherlands

Author

Listed:
  • Gerard Jong

    ()

  • Andrew Daly
  • Marits Pieters
  • Stephen Miller
  • Ronald Plasmeijer
  • Frank Hofman

Abstract

This paper provides a review of transport model applications that not only provide a central traffic forecast (or forecasts for a few scenarios), but also quantify the uncertainty in the traffic forecasts in the form of a confidence interval or related measures. Both uncertainty that results from using uncertain inputs (e.g. on income) and uncertainty in the model itself are treated. The paper goes on to describe the methods used and the results obtained for a case study in quantifying uncertainty in traffic forecasts in The Netherlands. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007

Suggested Citation

  • Gerard Jong & Andrew Daly & Marits Pieters & Stephen Miller & Ronald Plasmeijer & Frank Hofman, 2007. "Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for The Netherlands," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 375-395, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:34:y:2007:i:4:p:375-395
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-006-9110-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hugosson, Muriel Beser, 2005. "Quantifying uncertainties in a national forecasting model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 531-547, July.
    2. Rodier, Caroline J. & Johnston, Robert A., 2002. "Uncertain socioeconomic projections used in travel demand and emissions models: could plausible errors result in air quality nonconformity?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 613-631, August.
    3. Andrew Daly & James Fox & Jan Gerrit Tuinenga, 2005. "Pivot-Point Procedures in Practical Travel Demand Forecasting," ERSA conference papers ersa05p784, European Regional Science Association.
    4. Yong Zhao & Kara Maria Kockelman, 2002. "The propagation of uncertainty through travel demand models: An exploratory analysis," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 36(1), pages 145-163.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. West, Jens & Börjesson, Maria & Engelson, Leonid, 2016. "Accuracy of the Gothenburg congestion charges forecast," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 266-277.
    2. Börjesson, Maria & Jonsson , Daniel & Berglund, Svante & Almström , Peter, 2013. "Land-use impacts in transport appraisal," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:32, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    3. Daly, Andrew & Hess, Stephane & de Jong, Gerard, 2012. "Calculating errors for measures derived from choice modelling estimates," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 333-341.
    4. Andrew Daly, 2013. "Forecasting behaviour: with applications to transport," Chapters,in: Choice Modelling, chapter 2, pages 48-72 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Andersson, Matts & Brundell-Freij, Karin & Eliasson, Jonas, 2017. "Validation of aggregate reference forecasts for passenger transport," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 101-118.
    6. Parthasarathi, Pavithra & Levinson, David, 2010. "Post-construction evaluation of traffic forecast accuracy," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 428-443, November.
    7. Westin, Jonas & de Jong, Gerard & Vierth, Inge & Krüger, Niclas & Karlsson, Rune & Johansson, Magnus, 2015. "Baserunning - analyzing the sensitivity and economies of scale of the Swedish national freight model system using stochastic production-consumption-matrices," Working papers in Transport Economics 2015:10, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 15 Sep 2016.
    8. Sanko, Nobuhiro & Morikawa, Takayuki & Nagamatsu, Yoshitaka, 2013. "Post-project evaluation of travel demand forecasts: Implications from the case of a Japanese railway," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 209-218.
    9. Holz-Rau, Christian & Scheiner, Joachim, 2011. "Safety and travel time in cost-benefit analysis: A sensitivity analysis for North Rhine-Westphalia," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 336-346, March.
    10. repec:taf:japsta:v:44:y:2017:i:7:p:1211-1224 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Bastian, Anne & Börjesson, Maria, 2015. "Peak car? Drivers of the recent decline in Swedish car use," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 94-102.
    12. Andrew Daly, 2014. "Forecasting choice," Chapters,in: Handbook of Choice Modelling, chapter 25, pages 627-646 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Asplund, Disa & Eliasson, Jonas, 2016. "Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 195-205.
    14. Morten Skou Nicolaisen & Patrick A. Driscoll, 2016. "An International Review of Ex-Post Project Evaluation Schemes in the Transport Sector," Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (JEAPM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(01), pages 1-33, March.
    15. Wheat, Phill & Batley, Richard, 2015. "Quantifying and decomposing the uncertainty in appraisal value of travel time savings," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 134-142.
    16. Manzo, Stefano & Nielsen, Otto Anker & Prato, Carlo Giacomo, 2015. "How uncertainty in input and parameters influences transport model :output A four-stage model case-study," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 64-72.
    17. Börjesson, Maria & Jonsson, R. Daniel & Berglund, Svante & Almström, Peter, 2014. "Land-use impacts in transport appraisal," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 82-91.
    18. Niek Mouter & Jan Annema & Bert Wee, 2015. "Managing the insolvable limitations of cost-benefit analysis: results of an interview based study," Transportation, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 277-302, March.
    19. Yang, Chao & Chen, Anthony & Xu, Xiangdong & Wong, S.C., 2013. "Sensitivity-based uncertainty analysis of a combined travel demand model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 225-244.
    20. Andersson, Matts & Brundell-Freij, Karin & Eliasson, Jonas, 2016. "Validation of reference forecasts for passenger transport," Working papers in Transport Economics 2016:15, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 07 Jul 2016.

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