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Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for The Netherlands

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  1. West, Jens & Börjesson, Maria & Engelson, Leonid, 2016. "Accuracy of the Gothenburg congestion charges forecast," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 266-277.
  2. Börjesson, Maria & Jonsson , Daniel & Berglund, Svante & Almström , Peter, 2013. "Land-use impacts in transport appraisal," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:32, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
  3. Daly, Andrew & Hess, Stephane & de Jong, Gerard, 2012. "Calculating errors for measures derived from choice modelling estimates," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 333-341.
  4. Bastian, Anne & Börjesson, Maria, 2014. "It's the economy, stupid: increasing fuel price is enough to explain Peak Car in Sweden," Working papers in Transport Economics 2014:15, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
  5. Andersson, Matts & Brundell-Freij, Karin & Eliasson, Jonas, 2017. "Validation of aggregate reference forecasts for passenger transport," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 101-118.
  6. Westin, Jonas & de Jong, Gerard & Vierth, Inge & Krüger, Niclas & Karlsson, Rune & Johansson, Magnus, 2015. "Baserunning - analyzing the sensitivity and economies of scale of the Swedish national freight model system using stochastic production-consumption-matrices," Working papers in Transport Economics 2015:10, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 15 Sep 2016.
  7. Sanko, Nobuhiro & Morikawa, Takayuki & Nagamatsu, Yoshitaka, 2013. "Post-project evaluation of travel demand forecasts: Implications from the case of a Japanese railway," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 209-218.
  8. Holz-Rau, Christian & Scheiner, Joachim, 2011. "Safety and travel time in cost-benefit analysis: A sensitivity analysis for North Rhine-Westphalia," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 336-346, March.
  9. Barreto Martins, Diogo & Strambi, Orlando, 2021. "Forecasting upon a star: Forecasting or wishful thinking?," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  10. David Hartgen, 2013. "Hubris or humility? Accuracy issues for the next 50 years of travel demand modeling," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(6), pages 1133-1157, November.
  11. Asplund, Disa & Eliasson, Jonas, 2016. "Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 195-205.
  12. Parthasarathi, Pavithra & Levinson, David, 2010. "Post-construction evaluation of traffic forecast accuracy," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 428-443, November.
  13. Wheat, Phill & Batley, Richard, 2015. "Quantifying and decomposing the uncertainty in appraisal value of travel time savings," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 134-142.
  14. Gang Lin & Honglei Xu & Shaoli Wang & Conghua Lin & Fan Zhang & Junxiang Zhu, 2024. "Navigating Uncertainty: A Framework for Optimising Public Transport Networks’ Performance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-24, February.
  15. Kim, Kangsoo & Cho, Hyejin & Park, Sunwook & You, Soyoung Iris, 2024. "Uncertainties in the economic analysis of Korea’s preliminary feasibility study," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
  16. Ton, Danique & Bekhor, Shlomo & Cats, Oded & Duives, Dorine C. & Hoogendoorn-Lanser, Sascha & Hoogendoorn, Serge P., 2020. "The experienced mode choice set and its determinants: Commuting trips in the Netherlands," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 744-758.
  17. Nobuhiro Sanko, 2017. "Temporal transferability: trade-off between data newness and the number of observations for forecasting travel demand," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(6), pages 1403-1420, November.
  18. Glenn Lyons & Greg Marsden, 2021. "Opening out and closing down: the treatment of uncertainty in transport planning’s forecasting paradigm," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 595-616, April.
  19. Noelia Caceres & Luis M. Romero & Francisco J. Morales & Antonio Reyes & Francisco G. Benitez, 2018. "Estimating traffic volumes on intercity road locations using roadway attributes, socioeconomic features and other work-related activity characteristics," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(5), pages 1449-1473, September.
  20. Niek Mouter & Jan Annema & Bert Wee, 2015. "Managing the insolvable limitations of cost-benefit analysis: results of an interview based study," Transportation, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 277-302, March.
  21. Greg Marsden & Noreen C. McDonald, 2019. "Institutional issues in planning for more uncertain futures," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1075-1092, August.
  22. Andrew Daly, 2013. "Forecasting behaviour: with applications to transport," Chapters, in: Stephane Hess & Andrew Daly (ed.), Choice Modelling, chapter 2, pages 48-72, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  23. Hoque, Jawad Mahmud & Erhardt, Gregory D. & Schmitt, David & Chen, Mei & Wachs, Martin, 2021. "Estimating the uncertainty of traffic forecasts from their historical accuracy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 339-349.
  24. Kangsoo Kim & Jinseog Kim & Hyejin Cho & Donghyung Yook, 2024. "Determining contract conditions in a PPP project among deep uncertainty in future outturn travel demand," Transportation, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 937-961, June.
  25. Anna Matas & Josep-Lluis Raymond & Adriana Ruiz, 2012. "Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 1-17, January.
  26. Zannat, Khatun E. & Choudhury, Charisma F. & Hess, Stephane, 2024. "Modelling time-of-travel preferences capturing correlations between departure times and activity durations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
  27. Rafael Bernardo Carmona-Benítez & María Rosa Nieto, 2017. "Comparison of bootstrap estimation intervals to forecast arithmetic mean and median air passenger demand," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(7), pages 1211-1224, May.
  28. Bastian, Anne & Börjesson, Maria, 2015. "Peak car? Drivers of the recent decline in Swedish car use," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 94-102.
  29. Andrew Daly, 2014. "Forecasting choice," Chapters, in: Stephane Hess & Andrew Daly (ed.), Handbook of Choice Modelling, chapter 25, pages 627-646, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  30. Morten Skou Nicolaisen & Patrick A. Driscoll, 2016. "An International Review of Ex-Post Project Evaluation Schemes in the Transport Sector," Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (JEAPM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(01), pages 1-33, March.
  31. Manzo, Stefano & Nielsen, Otto Anker & Prato, Carlo Giacomo, 2015. "How uncertainty in input and parameters influences transport model :output A four-stage model case-study," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 64-72.
  32. Börjesson, Maria & Jonsson, R. Daniel & Berglund, Svante & Almström, Peter, 2014. "Land-use impacts in transport appraisal," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 82-91.
  33. Aguas, Oriana & Bachmann, Chris, 2022. "Assessing the effects of input uncertainties on the outputs of a freight demand model," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
  34. Maria Börjesson & Jonas Eliasson & Mattias Lundberg, 2014. "Is CBA Ranking of Transport Investments Robust?," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 48(2), pages 189-204, May.
  35. Yang, Chao & Chen, Anthony & Xu, Xiangdong & Wong, S.C., 2013. "Sensitivity-based uncertainty analysis of a combined travel demand model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 225-244.
  36. Andersson, Matts & Brundell-Freij, Karin & Eliasson, Jonas, 2016. "Validation of reference forecasts for passenger transport," Working papers in Transport Economics 2016:15, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 07 Jul 2016.
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