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Validation of aggregate reference forecasts for passenger transport

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  • Andersson, Matts
  • Brundell-Freij, Karin
  • Eliasson, Jonas

Abstract

We have compared Swedish national forecasts for passenger transport produced from 1975 to 2009 with the actual outcomes, and we found substantial differences between forecasts of passenger kilometers by mode and actual outcomes. In forecasts produced since the early 1990s, road and air traffic growth rates have generally been overpredicted. Aggregate railway growth has been fairly accurate, but commercial long-distance railway growth has been overpredicted, and the growth of subsidized intra-regional railway travel has been underpredicted (following vast unanticipated supply increases).

Suggested Citation

  • Andersson, Matts & Brundell-Freij, Karin & Eliasson, Jonas, 2017. "Validation of aggregate reference forecasts for passenger transport," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 101-118.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:96:y:2017:i:c:p:101-118
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2016.12.008
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand modeling; Forecast; Transport; Accuracy; Validation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning

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