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The Accuracy of Transit System Ridership Forecasts and Capital Cost Estimates

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  • Hardy, Matthew H.
  • Doh, Soogwan
  • Yuan, Junyang
  • Zhou, Xin
  • Button, Kenneth J.

Abstract

In 1992, Pickrell published a seminal piece examining the accuracy of ridership forecasts and capital cost estimates for fixed-guideway transit systems in the US. His research created heated discussions in the transit industry regarding the ability of transit planners to properly plan largescale transit systems. Since then, evidence has arisen to suggest that ridership forecasting and capital cost estimation of both new transit systems and extensions to existing transit system has improved. However, no statistical analysis has been conducted of US transit systems to determine this. This research fills this gap in the literature by examining 47 fixed-guideway transit projects planned in the US between 1972 and 2005 to see whether or not a Pickrell Effect can be observed whereby ridership forecasting and capital cost estimations improved due to Pickrell’s work.

Suggested Citation

  • Hardy, Matthew H. & Doh, Soogwan & Yuan, Junyang & Zhou, Xin & Button, Kenneth J., 2009. "The Accuracy of Transit System Ridership Forecasts and Capital Cost Estimates," 50th Annual Transportation Research Forum, Portland, Oregon, March 16-18, 2009 207489, Transportation Research Forum.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ndtr09:207489
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.207489
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeroen C. J. M. van den Bergh & Kenneth J. Button, 1997. "Meta-analysis of Environmental Issues in Regional, Urban and Transport Economics," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 34(5-6), pages 927-944, May.
    2. Daniel McFadden, 2001. "Economic Choices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 351-378, June.
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    1. Andersson, Matts & Brundell-Freij, Karin & Eliasson, Jonas, 2017. "Validation of aggregate reference forecasts for passenger transport," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 101-118.
    2. Nicolaisen, Morten Skou & Næss, Petter, 2015. "Roads to nowhere: The accuracy of travel demand forecasts for do-nothing alternatives," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 57-63.
    3. Hoque, Jawad Mahmud & Zhang, Ian & Schmitt, David & Erhardt, Gregory D., 2024. "Are public transit investments based on accurate forecasts? An analysis of the improving trend of transit ridership forecasts in the United States," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    4. Carlos Oliveira Cruz & Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, 2020. "Traffic forecast inaccuracy in transportation: a literature review of roads and railways projects," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1571-1606, August.
    5. Kim, Kimin & Kim, JeGuk, 2025. "Beyond project segments: An econometric evaluation of traffic network volume forecasting," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    6. Carole Turley Voulgaris, 2020. "Trust in forecasts? Correlates with ridership forecast accuracy for fixed-guideway transit projects," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(5), pages 2439-2477, October.
    7. Kenneth Button & Brien Benson, 2013. "Handling biases in forecasting when making transportation policy," Chapters, in: Thomas Vanoutrive & Ann Verhetsel (ed.), Smart Transport Networks, chapter 4, pages 49-67, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Andersson, Matts & Brundell-Freij, Karin & Eliasson, Jonas, 2016. "Validation of reference forecasts for passenger transport," Working papers in Transport Economics 2016:15, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 07 Jul 2016.

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