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The group size and loyalty of football fans: a two-stage estimation procedure to compare customer potentials across teams


  • Leif Brandes
  • Egon Franck
  • Philipp Theiler


This paper presents estimation results on the size and loyalty of sport teams' supporter groups in professional German football. Based on a novel two-stage estimation procedure, we find clear evidence for heterogeneity across teams. In a first stage, a random utility model for a representative consumer is modeled and fitted to more than 1,700 matches over the seasons 1996 - 2001. In a second-step, attendance prob- abilities are predicted for the seasons 2002 - 2003 to estimate group sizes. A team's group size is positively correlated with its memberships (rho =0.61, p
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  • Leif Brandes & Egon Franck & Philipp Theiler, 2013. "The group size and loyalty of football fans: a two-stage estimation procedure to compare customer potentials across teams," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(2), pages 347-369, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:176:y:2013:i:2:p:347-369
    DOI: j.1467-985X.2011.01033.x

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jeffery Borland, 2003. "Demand for Sport," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 478-502, Winter.
    2. David Forrest & Robert Simmons & Babatunde Buraimo, 2005. "Outcome Uncertainty And The Couch Potato Audience," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 52(4), pages 641-661, September.
    3. S. Dellavigna., 2011. "Psychology and Economics: Evidence from the Field," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 5.
    4. Forrest, David & Simmons, Robert & Feehan, Patrick, 2002. "A Spatial Cross-Sectional Analysis of the Elasticity of Demand for Soccer," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(3), pages 336-355, August.
    5. Stefan Szymanski, 2003. "The Economic Design of Sporting Contests," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 1137-1187, December.
    6. Men-Andri Benz & Leif Brandes & Egon Franck, 2009. "Do Soccer Associations Really Spend On A Good Thing? Empirical Evidence On Heterogeneity In The Consumer Response To Match Uncertainty Of Outcome," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(2), pages 216-235, April.
    7. Georg Stadtmann & Dirk Czarnitzki, 2002. "Uncertainty of outcome versus reputation: Empirical evidence for the First German Football Division," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 101-112.
    8. Daniel McFadden, 2001. "Economic Choices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 351-378, June.
    9. Falkinger, Josef, 2005. "Limited Attention as the Scarce Resource in an Information-Rich Economy," IZA Discussion Papers 1538, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    10. Babatunde Buraimo & David Forrest & Robert Simmons, 2007. "Freedom of Entry, Market Size, and Competitive Outcome: Evidence from English Soccer," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 74(1), pages 204-213, July.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism


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