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Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints

Author

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  • Anna Matas

    ()

  • Josep-Lluis Raymond
  • Adriana Ruiz

Abstract

Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the paper proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. This methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires.
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Suggested Citation

  • Anna Matas & Josep-Lluis Raymond & Adriana Ruiz, 2012. "Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 1-17, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:39:y:2012:i:1:p:1-17
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-011-9325-1
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11116-011-9325-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anna Matas & José-Luis Raymond, 2002. "The demand elasticity on tolled motorways," Working Papers wp0203, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    2. Geoff Riddington, 2006. "Long Range Air Traffic Forecasts for the UK: A Critique," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 40(2), pages 297-314, May.
    3. Robert Bain, 2009. "Error and optimism bias in toll road traffic forecasts," Transportation, Springer, vol. 36(5), pages 469-482, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Esther Vayá & José Ramón García & Joaquim Murillo & Javier Romaní & Jordi Suriñach, 2016. "“Economic Impact of Cruise Activity: The Port of Barcelona”," AQR Working Papers 201609, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Nov 2016.
    2. Anna Castañer & Mª Mercè Claramunt & Alba Tadeo & Javier Varea, 2016. "Modelización de la dependencia del número de siniestros. Aplicación a Solvencia II," Working Papers XREAP2016-01, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Sep 2016.
    3. Manzo, Stefano & Nielsen, Otto Anker & Prato, Carlo Giacomo, 2015. "How uncertainty in input and parameters influences transport model :output A four-stage model case-study," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 64-72.
    4. Gomez, Juan & Vassallo, José Manuel, 2015. "Evolution over time of heavy vehicle volume in toll roads: A dynamic panel data to identify key explanatory variables in Spain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 282-297.
    5. Catalina Bolancé & Zuhair Bahraoui & Ramon Alemany, 2015. "Estimating extreme value cumulative distribution functions using bias-corrected kernel approaches," Working Papers XREAP2015-01, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Jan 2015.
    6. Anna Castañer & Mª Mercè Claramunt, 2014. "Optimal stop-loss reinsurance: a dependence analysis," Working Papers XREAP2014-04, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Apr 2014.
    7. Garrido, Laura & Gomez, Juan & Baeza, María de los Ángeles & Vassallo, José Manuel, 2017. "Is EU financial support enhancing the economic performance of PPP projects? An empirical analysis on the case of spanish road infrastructure," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 19-28.
    8. Mercedes Ayuso & Montserrat Guillén & Jens Perch Nielsen, 2016. "Improving automobile insurance ratemaking using telematics: incorporating mileage and driver behaviour data," Working Papers XREAP2016-08, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Dec 2016.
    9. Juan Gomez & José Manuel Vassallo & Israel Herraiz, 2016. "Explaining light vehicle demand evolution in interurban toll roads: a dynamic panel data analysis in Spain," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 677-703, July.
    10. Juan Gomez & Anestis Papanikolaou & José Manuel Vassallo, 2017. "Users’ perceptions and willingness to pay in interurban toll roads: identifying differences across regions from a nationwide survey in Spain," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 449-474, May.
    11. Antonio Manresa & Ferran Sancho, 2012. "Leontief versus Ghosh: two faces of the same coin," Working Papers XREAP2012-18, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Oct 2012.

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    Keywords

    Traffic forecast; Uncertainty; Toll motorways;

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