IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/transp/v48y2021i2d10.1007_s11116-019-10067-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Opening out and closing down: the treatment of uncertainty in transport planning’s forecasting paradigm

Author

Listed:
  • Glenn Lyons

    (University of the West of England)

  • Greg Marsden

    (University of Leeds)

Abstract

Since the 1960s, development of the transport system has been framed by the notion of forecasting future demand. Yet the past decade or more appears to signal some significant changes to the role of travel in society which are having a material impact on how much people travel (and may travel in the future). Coupled with the potential for major technological changes and a range of climate adaptation scenarios, the future of mobility presents today’s decision making on transport strategy and investment with a broader set of uncertainties than has previously been considered. This paper examines current mainstream practice for incorporating uncertainty into decision-making, through an illustrative case study of the highly codified approaches of the Department for Transport in England. It deconstructs the issue by first focussing on different ways in which there is an opening out or acceptance of new uncertainties and how this creates a (wider) set of potential futures. It then turns to consider how this set of futures is used, or not, in decision-making, i.e. the process of closing down uncertainty to arrive at or at least inform a decision. We demonstrate that, because the range of uncertainties has broadened in scope and scale, the traditional technocratic approach of closing down decisions through sensitivity testing is at odds with the greater breadth now being called for at the opening out stage. We conclude that transport decision-making would benefit from a rebalancing of technical depth with analytical breadth. The paper outlines a plausible new approach to opening out and closing down that is starting to be applied in practice. This approach must be accompanied by an opening up of the processes by which technical advice for decisions are reached and how uncertainties are understood and negotiated.

Suggested Citation

  • Glenn Lyons & Greg Marsden, 2021. "Opening out and closing down: the treatment of uncertainty in transport planning’s forecasting paradigm," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 595-616, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:48:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11116-019-10067-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-019-10067-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11116-019-10067-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11116-019-10067-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Lempert & David G. Groves & Steven W. Popper & Steve C. Bankes, 2006. "A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 514-528, April.
    2. Contestabile, Marcello & Alajaji, Mohammed & Almubarak, Bader, 2017. "Will current electric vehicle policy lead to cost-effective electrification of passenger car transport?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 20-30.
    3. Katy Roelich & Jannik Giesekam, 2019. "Decision making under uncertainty in climate change mitigation: introducing multiple actor motivations, agency and influence," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 175-188, February.
    4. Banister, David & Hickman, Robin, 2013. "Transport futures: Thinking the unthinkable," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 283-293.
    5. Dodgson, JS & Spackman, M & Pearman, A & Phillips, LD, 2009. "Multi-criteria analysis: a manual," Economic History Working Papers 12761, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    6. Peter Mackie & John Nellthorp & James Laird, 2005. "Notes on the Economic Evaluation of Transport Projects," World Bank Publications - Reports 11787, The World Bank Group.
    7. Itf, 2015. "Forecasting Airport Demand: Review of UK Airports Commission Forecasts and Scenarios," International Transport Forum Policy Papers 13, OECD Publishing.
    8. Nellthorp, J. & Mackie, P. J., 2000. "The UK Roads Review--a hedonic model of decision making," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 127-138, April.
    9. Greg Marsden & Noreen C. McDonald, 2019. "Institutional issues in planning for more uncertain futures," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1075-1092, August.
    10. Lyons, Glenn & Davidson, Cody, 2016. "Guidance for transport planning and policymaking in the face of an uncertain future," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 104-116.
    11. Shaheen, Susan PhD & Totte, Hannah & Stocker, Adam, 2018. "Future of Mobility White Paper," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt68g2h1qv, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    12. Peter Mackie & John Nellthorp & James Laird, 2005. "Notes on the Economic Evaluation of Transport Projects," World Bank Publications - Reports 11791, The World Bank Group.
    13. Gerard Jong & Andrew Daly & Marits Pieters & Stephen Miller & Ronald Plasmeijer & Frank Hofman, 2007. "Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for The Netherlands," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 375-395, July.
    14. Dawson, David & Shaw, Jon & Roland Gehrels, W., 2016. "Sea-level rise impacts on transport infrastructure: The notorious case of the coastal railway line at Dawlish, England," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 97-109.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marsden, Greg & Docherty, Iain, 2021. "Mega-disruptions and policy change: Lessons from the mobility sector in response to the Covid-19 pandemic in the UK," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 86-97.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Greg Marsden & Noreen C. McDonald, 2019. "Institutional issues in planning for more uncertain futures," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1075-1092, August.
    2. Andronis, Lazaros & Maredza, Mandy & Petrou, Stavros, 2019. "Measuring, valuing and including forgone childhood education and leisure time costs in economic evaluation: Methods, challenges and the way forward," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Kannapiran C. Arjunan, 2019. "Non‐monotonic NPV Function Leads to Spurious NPVs and Multiple IRR Problems: A New Method that Resolves these Problems," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 38(1), pages 56-69, March.
    4. Hoque, Jawad Mahmud & Erhardt, Gregory D. & Schmitt, David & Chen, Mei & Wachs, Martin, 2021. "Estimating the uncertainty of traffic forecasts from their historical accuracy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 339-349.
    5. Zi-Yun Zhang & Fang-Le Peng & Chen-Xiao Ma & Hui Zhang & Su-Juan Fu, 2021. "External Benefit Assessment of Urban Utility Tunnels Based on Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-23, January.
    6. Soria-Lara, Julio A. & Ariza-Álvarez, Amor & Aguilera-Benavente, Francisco & Cascajo, Rocío & Arce-Ruiz, Rosa M. & López, Cristina & Gómez-Delgado, Montserrat, 2021. "Participatory visioning for building disruptive future scenarios for transport and land use planning," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    7. Leslie Paul Thiele, 2020. "Integrating political and technological uncertainty into robust climate policy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 521-538, November.
    8. Steurer, Nora & Bonilla, David, 2016. "Building sustainable transport futures for the Mexico City Metropolitan Area," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 121-133.
    9. Ariza-Álvarez, Amor & Soria-Lara, Julio A. & Arce-Ruiz, Rosa M. & López-Lambas, María Eugenia & Jimenez-Espada, Montaña, 2021. "Experimenting with scenario-building narratives to integrate land use and transport," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 57-70.
    10. Chiara Pancotti & Matteo Pedralli & Geert Smit & Silvia Vignetti, 2020. "Understanding transport project appraisal in its institutional dimension," Working Papers 201902, CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies.
    11. Helena Sustar & Miloš N. Mladenović & Moshe Givoni, 2020. "The Landscape of Envisioning and Speculative Design Methods for Sustainable Mobility Futures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-24, March.
    12. Stanton, Muriel C. Bonjean & Roelich, Katy, 2021. "Decision making under deep uncertainties: A review of the applicability of methods in practice," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    13. Luca Staricco & Valentina Rappazzo & Jacopo Scudellari & Elisabetta Vitale Brovarone, 2019. "Toward Policies to Manage the Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on the City: A Visioning Exercise," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-21, September.
    14. Pierluigi Coppola & Diego Deponte & Alessandro Vacca & Federico Messa & Fulvio Silvestri, 2022. "Multi-Dimensional Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Prioritizing Railway Station Investments: A General Framework with an Application to the Italian Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-18, April.
    15. Tomislav Letnik & Katja Hanžič & Giuseppe Luppino & Matej Mencinger, 2022. "Impact of Logistics Trends on Freight Transport Development in Urban Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-18, December.
    16. Bastian, Anne & Börjesson, Maria, 2014. "It's the economy, stupid: increasing fuel price is enough to explain Peak Car in Sweden," Working papers in Transport Economics 2014:15, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    17. Majumder, Suman & De, Krishnarti & Kumar, Praveen & Sengupta, Bodhisattva & Biswas, Pabitra Kumar, 2021. "Techno-commercial analysis of sustainable E-bus-based public transit systems: An Indian case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    18. Baker, Erin & Bosetti, Valentina & Salo, Ahti, 2016. "Finding Common Ground when Experts Disagree: Belief Dominance over Portfolios of Alternatives," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways 243147, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    19. Jonas Eliasson & Mattias Lundberg, 2011. "Do Cost--Benefit Analyses Influence Transport Investment Decisions? Experiences from the Swedish Transport Investment Plan 2010--21," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 29-48, April.
    20. Laird, James J. & Venables, Anthony J., 2017. "Transport investment and economic performance: A framework for project appraisal," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-11.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:48:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11116-019-10067-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.