Uncertain benefits: Application of Bayesian melding to the Alaskan Way Viaduct in Seattle
Uncertainty is inherent in major infrastructure projects, but public decision-making for such projects ignores it. We investigate the uncertainty about the future effects of tearing down the Alaskan Way Viaduct in downtown Seattle, using an integrated model of housing, jobs, land use and transportation, on outcomes including average commute times. Our methodology combines the urban simulation model UrbanSim with the regional transportation model. We assess uncertainty using Bayesian melding, yielding a full predictive distribution of average commute times on 22 different routes in 2020. Of these routes, 14 do not include the viaduct and eight do. For the 14 base routes that do not include the viaduct, the predictive distributions overlap substantially, and so there is no indication that removing the viaduct would increase commute times for these routes. For each of the eight routes that do include the viaduct, the 95% predictive interval for the difference in average travel times between the two scenarios includes zero, so there is not strong statistical support for the conclusion that removing the viaduct would lead to any increase in travel times. However, the median predicted increase is positive for each of these routes, with an average of 6Â min, suggesting that there may be some measurable increase in travel time for drivers that use the viaduct as a core component of their commute.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 45 (2011)
Issue (Month): 6 (July)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description|
|Order Information:|| Postal: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zhu, Shanjiang & Levinson, David & Liu, Henry X. & Harder, Kathleen, 2010.
"The traffic and behavioral effects of the I-35W Mississippi River bridge collapse,"
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice,
Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 771-784, December.
- Shanjiang Zhu & David Levinson & Henry Liu & Kathleen Harder, 2008. "The traffic and behavioral effects of the I-35W Mississippi River bridge collapse," Working Papers 201001, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
- Jou, Rong-Chang & Kitamura, Ryuichi & Weng, Mei-Chuan & Chen, Chih-Cheng, 2008. "Dynamic commuter departure time choice under uncertainty," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 774-783, June.
- Sevcíková, Hana & Raftery, Adrian E. & Waddell, Paul A., 2007. "Assessing uncertainty in urban simulations using Bayesian melding," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 652-669, July.
- Hugosson, Muriel Beser, 2005. "Quantifying uncertainties in a national forecasting model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 531-547, July.
- Kim, Chansung, 2008. "Commuting time stability: A test of a co-location hypothesis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 524-544, March.
- D E Boyce, 1984. "Urban transportation network-equilibrium and design models: recent achievements and future prospects," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 16(11), pages 1445-1474, November.
- de Palma, André & Picard, Nathalie, 2005. "Route choice decision under travel time uncertainty," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 295-324, May.
- Durango-Cohen, Pablo L. & Madanat, Samer M., 2008. "Optimization of inspection and maintenance decisions for infrastructure facilities under performance model uncertainty: A quasi-Bayes approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(8), pages 1074-1085, October.
- Ettema, Dick & Tamminga, Guus & Timmermans, Harry & Arentze, Theo, 2005. "A micro-simulation model system of departure time using a perception updating model under travel time uncertainty," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 325-344, May.
- Flyvbjerg, Bent, 2005.
"Measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: methodological considerations regarding ramp up and sampling,"
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice,
Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 522-530, July.
- Bent Flyvbjerg, 2013. "Measuring Inaccuracy in Travel Demand Forecasting: Methodological Considerations Regarding Ramp Up and Sampling," Papers 1303.7401, arXiv.org.
- Waddell, Paul & Ulfarsson, Gudmundur F. & Franklin, Joel P. & Lobb, John, 2007. "Incorporating land use in metropolitan transportation planning," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 382-410, June.
- D E Boyce, 1984. "Urban Transportation Network-Equilibrium and Design Models: Recent Achievements and Future Prospects," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 16(11), pages 1445-1474, November.
- Salling, Kim Bang & Banister, David, 2009. "Assessment of large transport infrastructure projects: The CBA-DK model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(9-10), pages 800-813, November.
- Sohn, Jungyul, 2006. "Evaluating the significance of highway network links under the flood damage: An accessibility approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 491-506, July.
- Hollander, Yaron, 2006. "Direct versus indirect models for the effects of unreliability," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 699-711, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:45:y:2011:i:6:p:540-553. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.