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Route choice decision under travel time uncertainty

  • de Palma, André
  • Picard, Nathalie

We study route choice behavior when travel time is uncertain. In this case, users choice depends both on expected travel time and travel time variability. We collected survey data in the Paris area and analyzed them using a method based on the ordered probit. This leads to an ordinal as well as to different cardinal measures of risk aversion. Such an approach is consistent with expected and with non-expected utility theory. Econometric estimates suggest that absolute risk aversion is constant and show that risk aversion is larger for transit users, blue collars and for business appointments.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice.

Volume (Year): 39 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 (May)
Pages: 295-324

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Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:39:y:2005:i:4:p:295-324
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  1. Joop Hartog & Ada Ferrer-i-Carbonell & Nicole Jonker, 2000. "On a Simple Survey Measure of Individual Risk Aversion," CESifo Working Paper Series 363, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Small, Kenneth A, 1987. "A Discrete Choice Model for Ordered Alternatives," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 409-24, March.
  3. Smith, Richard J & Blundell, Richard W, 1986. "An Exogeneity Test for a Simultaneous Equation Tobit Model with an Application to Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 679-85, May.
  4. Palfrey, Thomas R. & Goeree, Jacob & Holt, Charles, 2000. "Quantal Response Equilibrium and Overbidding in Private-value Auctions," Working Papers 1073, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  5. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December.
  6. Noland, R.B. & Small, K.A. & Koskenoja, P.M. & Chu, X., 1996. "Simulating Travel Reliability," Papers 95-96-7, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
  7. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March.
  8. Machina, Mark J & Pratt, John W, 1997. "Increasing Risk: Some Direct Constructions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 103-27, March.
  9. Machina, Mark J, 1987. "Choice under Uncertainty: Problems Solved and Unsolved," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 121-54, Summer.
  10. André de Palma & Nathalie Picard, 2006. "Route Choice Behaviour with Risk-Averse Users," Chapters, in: Spatial Dynamics, Networks and Modelling, chapter 7 Edward Elgar.
  11. McFadden, Daniel L., 2000. "Economic Choices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2000-6, Nobel Prize Committee.
  12. Camerer, Colin F, 1989. " An Experimental Test of Several Generalized Utility Theories," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 61-104, April.
  13. Goeree, Jacob K. & Holt, Charles A. & Palfrey, Thomas R., 2003. "Risk averse behavior in generalized matching pennies games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 97-113, October.
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