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Route choice decision under travel time uncertainty

  • de Palma, André
  • Picard, Nathalie

We study route choice behavior when travel time is uncertain. In this case, users choice depends both on expected travel time and travel time variability. We collected survey data in the Paris area and analyzed them using a method based on the ordered probit. This leads to an ordinal as well as to different cardinal measures of risk aversion. Such an approach is consistent with expected and with non-expected utility theory. Econometric estimates suggest that absolute risk aversion is constant and show that risk aversion is larger for transit users, blue collars and for business appointments.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice.

Volume (Year): 39 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 (May)
Pages: 295-324

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Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:39:y:2005:i:4:p:295-324
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  1. Smith, Richard J & Blundell, Richard W, 1986. "An Exogeneity Test for a Simultaneous Equation Tobit Model with an Application to Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 679-85, May.
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  7. Small, Kenneth A, 1987. "A Discrete Choice Model for Ordered Alternatives," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 409-24, March.
  8. Goeree, Jacob K. & Holt, Charles A. & Palfrey, Thomas R., 2003. "Risk averse behavior in generalized matching pennies games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 97-113, October.
  9. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December.
  10. McFadden, Daniel L., 2000. "Economic Choices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2000-6, Nobel Prize Committee.
  11. André de Palma & Nathalie Picard, 2004. "Route Choice behavior with risk averse users," THEMA Working Papers 2004-09, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  12. Camerer, Colin F, 1989. "An Experimental Test of Several Generalized Utility Theories," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 61-104, April.
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