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Direct versus indirect models for the effects of unreliability


  • Hollander, Yaron


Two distinguishable modelling approaches exist for modelling the attitudes of travellers to the unexpected day-to-day variability of travel times. The direct approach sees the extent of travel time variability (TTV) as the variable that travellers react to, whereas the indirect approach claims that TTV effects are fully explained by trip scheduling considerations. Past research has not yet overcome the issue of which of these concepts is preferable, especially for public transport users. In the current paper, factors affecting bus users' scheduling behaviour and attitudes to TTV are investigated, based on a survey among bus users in the city of York, England. The survey methodology and its Internet-based design are described. The results confirm that the influence of TTV on bus users is best explained indirectly through scheduling considerations. The penalty placed on early arrival to the destination is found similar to the penalty on travel time itself; late arrivals are much more heavily penalised. Since the common treatment of TTV in practice is through models that ignore the effect of lateness and earliness, we also examine how using the simple approach rather than the correct one affects the economic interpretation of TTV; the results reveal a massive bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Hollander, Yaron, 2006. "Direct versus indirect models for the effects of unreliability," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 699-711, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:40:y:2006:i:9:p:699-711

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Small, Kenneth A, 1987. "A Discrete Choice Model for Ordered Alternatives," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 409-424, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carrion, Carlos & Levinson, David, 2012. "Value of travel time reliability: A review of current evidence," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 720-741.
    2. Li, Hao & Tu, Huizhao & Hensher, David A., 2016. "Integrating the mean–variance and scheduling approaches to allow for schedule delay and trip time variability under uncertainty," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 151-163.
    3. Dixit, Vinayak V. & Harb, Rami C. & Martínez-Correa, Jimmy & Rutström, Elisabet E., 2015. "Measuring risk aversion to guide transportation policy: Contexts, incentives, and respondents," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 15-34.
    4. Chakrabarti, Sandip & Giuliano, Genevieve, 2015. "Does service reliability determine transit patronage? Insights from the Los Angeles Metro bus system," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 12-20.
    5. Matthias Sweet & Mengke Chen, 2011. "Does regional travel time unreliability influence mode choice?," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 625-642, July.
    6. repec:eee:transb:v:104:y:2017:i:c:p:409-436 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Sun, Lijun & Tirachini, Alejandro & Axhausen, Kay W. & Erath, Alexander & Lee, Der-Horng, 2014. "Models of bus boarding and alighting dynamics," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 447-460.
    8. Mark Wardman & Richard Batley, 2014. "Travel time reliability: a review of late time valuations, elasticities and demand impacts in the passenger rail market in Great Britain," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(5), pages 1041-1069, September.
    9. Zheng Li & David Hensher, 2013. "Behavioural implications of preferences, risk attitudes and beliefs in modelling risky travel choice with travel time variability," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 505-523, May.
    10. Sevcíková, Hana & Raftery, Adrian E. & Waddell, Paul A., 2011. "Uncertain benefits: Application of Bayesian melding to the Alaskan Way Viaduct in Seattle," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 540-553, July.
    11. Kou, Weibin & Chen, Xumei & Yu, Lei & Qi, Yi & Wang, Ying, 2017. "Urban commuters’ valuation of travel time reliability based on stated preference survey: A case study of Beijing," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 372-380.
    12. Pavithra Parthasarathi & Anupam Srivastava & Nikolas Geroliminis & David Levinson, 2011. "The importance of being early," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 227-247, March.
    13. Fosgerau, Mogens & Karlström, Anders, 2010. "The value of reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 38-49, January.
    14. Xiao, Yu & Coulombel, Nicolas & Palma, André de, 2017. "The valuation of travel time reliability: does congestion matter?," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 113-141.
    15. Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas, 2011. "On the use of "average delay" as a measure of train reliability," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 171-184, March.
    16. Bliemer, Michiel C.J. & Rose, John M., 2011. "Experimental design influences on stated choice outputs: An empirical study in air travel choice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 63-79, January.
    17. Batley, Richard & Ibáñez, J. Nicolás, 2012. "Randomness in preference orderings, outcomes and attribute tastes: An application to journey time risk," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 157-175.
    18. Mouter, Niek & Annema, Jan Anne & van Wee, Bert, 2013. "Ranking the substantive problems in the Dutch Cost–Benefit Analysis practice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 241-255.
    19. Hess, Stephane & Daly, Andrew & Dekker, Thijs & Cabral, Manuel Ojeda & Batley, Richard, 2017. "A framework for capturing heterogeneity, heteroskedasticity, non-linearity, reference dependence and design artefacts in value of time research," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 126-149.
    20. Kato, Hironori & Kaneko, Yuichiro & Soyama, Yoshihiko, 2014. "Economic benefits of urban rail projects that improve travel-time reliability: Evidence from Tokyo, Japan," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 202-210.
    21. Kawasaki, Tomoya & Hanaoka, Shinya & Nguyen, Long Xuan, 2014. "The valuation of shipment time variability in Greater Mekong Subregion," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 25-33.
    22. de Jong, Gerard C. & Bliemer, Michiel C.J., 2015. "On including travel time reliability of road traffic in appraisal," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 80-95.
    23. Hensher, David A. & Greene, William H. & Li, Zheng, 2011. "Embedding risk attitude and decision weights in non-linear logit to accommodate time variability in the value of expected travel time savings," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 954-972, August.
    24. Emily Lancsar & Peter Burge, 2014. "Choice modelling research in health economics," Chapters,in: Handbook of Choice Modelling, chapter 28, pages 675-687 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    25. Li, Zheng & Hensher, David A. & Rose, John M., 2013. "Accommodating perceptual conditioning in the valuation of expected travel time savings for cars and public transport," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 270-276.

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