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Valuing travel time variability: Characteristics of the travel time distribution on an urban road

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  • Fosgerau, Mogens
  • Fukuda, Daisuke

Abstract

Fosgerau and Karlstrom [The value of reliability. Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 43 (8–9), pp. 813–820, 2010] presented a derivation of the value of travel time variability (VTTV) with a number of desirable properties. This definition of the VTTV depends on certain properties of the distribution of random travel times that require empirical verification. This paper therefore provides a detailed empirical investigation of the distribution of travel times on an urban road. Applying a range of nonparametric statistical techniques to data giving minute-by-minute travel times for a congested urban road over a period of five months, we show that the standardized travel time is roughly independent of the time of day as required by the theory. Except for the extreme right tail, a stable distribution seems to fit the data well. The travel time distributions on consecutive links seem to share a common stability parameter such that the travel time distribution for a sequence of links is also a stable distribution. The parameters of the travel time distribution for a sequence of links can then be derived analytically from the link level distributions.

Suggested Citation

  • Fosgerau, Mogens & Fukuda, Daisuke, 2010. "Valuing travel time variability: Characteristics of the travel time distribution on an urban road," MPRA Paper 24330, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:24330
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jenelius, Erik & Koutsopoulos, Haris N., 2013. "Travel time estimation for urban road networks using low frequency probe vehicle data," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 64-81.
    2. Xiao, Yu & Fukuda, Daisuke, 2015. "On the cost of misperceived travel time variability," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 96-112.
    3. Hjorth, Katrine & Börjesson, Maria & Engelson, Leonid & Fosgerau, Mogens, 2015. "Estimating exponential scheduling preferences," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 230-251.
    4. Selin Damla Ahipaşaoğlu & Uğur Arıkan & Karthik Natarajan, 2019. "Distributionally Robust Markovian Traffic Equilibrium," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(6), pages 1546-1562, November.
    5. Vodopivec, Neža & Miller-Hooks, Elise, 2017. "An optimal stopping approach to managing travel-time uncertainty for time-sensitive customer pickup," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 22-37.
    6. Engelson, Leonid & Fosgerau, Mogens, 2011. "Additive measures of travel time variability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1560-1571.
    7. Gu, Yu & Fu, Xiao & Liu, Zhiyuan & Xu, Xiangdong & Chen, Anthony, 2020. "Performance of transportation network under perturbations: Reliability, vulnerability, and resilience," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Fosgerau, Mogens & Engelson, Leonid & Franklin, Joel P., 2014. "Commuting for meetings," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 104-113.
    9. de Jong, Gerard C. & Bliemer, Michiel C.J., 2015. "On including travel time reliability of road traffic in appraisal," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 80-95.
    10. Jenelius, Erik, 2012. "The value of travel time variability with trip chains, flexible scheduling and correlated travel times," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 762-780.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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