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Valuing travel time variability: Characteristics of the travel time distribution on an urban road

  • Fosgerau, Mogens
  • Fukuda, Daisuke

Fosgerau and Karlstrom [The value of reliability. Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 43 (8–9), pp. 813–820, 2010] presented a derivation of the value of travel time variability (VTTV) with a number of desirable properties. This definition of the VTTV depends on certain properties of the distribution of random travel times that require empirical verification. This paper therefore provides a detailed empirical investigation of the distribution of travel times on an urban road. Applying a range of nonparametric statistical techniques to data giving minute-by-minute travel times for a congested urban road over a period of five months, we show that the standardized travel time is roughly independent of the time of day as required by the theory. Except for the extreme right tail, a stable distribution seems to fit the data well. The travel time distributions on consecutive links seem to share a common stability parameter such that the travel time distribution for a sequence of links is also a stable distribution. The parameters of the travel time distribution for a sequence of links can then be derived analytically from the link level distributions.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24330/1/MPRA_paper_24330.pdf
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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/49149/1/MPRA_paper_24330.pdf
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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/47049/1/MPRA_paper_24330.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 24330.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:24330
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  1. Brownstone, David & Small, Kenneth A., 2005. "Valuing time and reliability: assessing the evidence from road pricing demonstrations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 279-293, May.
  2. Ichimura, Tsuyoshi & Fukuda, Daisuke, 2010. "A fast algorithm for computing least-squares cross-validations for nonparametric conditional kernel density functions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(12), pages 3404-3410, December.
  3. Fosgerau, Mogens & Engelson, Leonid, 2010. "The value of travel time variance," MPRA Paper 42272, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Lam, Terence C. & Small, Kenneth A., 2003. "The Value of Time and Reliability: Measurement from a Value Pricing Experiment," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt47s4z7z5, University of California Transportation Center.
  5. Noland, R.B. & Small, K.A. & Koskenoja, P.M. & Chu, X., 1996. "Simulating Travel Reliability," Papers 95-96-7, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
  6. Peter Hall & Jeff Racine & Qi Li, 2004. "Cross-Validation and the Estimation of Conditional Probability Densities," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 1015-1026, December.
  7. Fosgerau, Mogens, 2008. "On the relation between the mean and variance of delay in dynamic queues with random capacity and demand," MPRA Paper 11994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Robert B. Noland & John W. Polak, 2002. "Travel time variability: A review of theoretical and empirical issues," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 39-54, January.
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