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Travel time estimation for urban road networks using low frequency probe vehicle data

Author

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  • Jenelius, Erik
  • Koutsopoulos, Haris N.

Abstract

The paper presents a statistical model for urban road network travel time estimation using vehicle trajectories obtained from low frequency GPS probes as observations, where the vehicles typically cover multiple network links between reports. The network model separates trip travel times into link travel times and intersection delays and allows correlation between travel times on different network links based on a spatial moving average (SMA) structure. The observation model presents a way to estimate the parameters of the network model, including the correlation structure, through low frequency sampling of vehicle traces. Link-specific effects are combined with link attributes (speed limit, functional class, etc.) and trip conditions (day of week, season, weather, etc.) as explanatory variables. The approach captures the underlying factors behind spatial and temporal variations in speeds, which is useful for traffic management, planning and forecasting. The model is estimated using maximum likelihood. The model is applied in a case study for the network of Stockholm, Sweden. Link attributes and trip conditions (including recent snowfall) have significant effects on travel times and there is significant positive correlation between segments. The case study highlights the potential of using sparse probe vehicle data for monitoring the performance of the urban transport system.

Suggested Citation

  • Jenelius, Erik & Koutsopoulos, Haris N., 2013. "Travel time estimation for urban road networks using low frequency probe vehicle data," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 64-81.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:53:y:2013:i:c:p:64-81
    DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2013.03.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ramezani, Mohsen & Geroliminis, Nikolas, 2012. "On the estimation of arterial route travel time distribution with Markov chains," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1576-1590.
    2. Park, Byung-Jung & Zhang, Yunlong & Lord, Dominique, 2010. "Bayesian mixture modeling approach to account for heterogeneity in speed data," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 662-673, June.
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    6. Hofleitner, Aude & Herring, Ryan & Bayen, Alexandre, 2012. "Arterial travel time forecast with streaming data: A hybrid approach of flow modeling and machine learning," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(9), pages 1097-1122.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Comert, Gurcan, 2016. "Queue length estimation from probe vehicles at isolated intersections: Estimators for primary parameters," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(2), pages 502-521.
    2. Jenelius, Erik & Koutsopoulos, Haris N., 2015. "Probe vehicle data sampled by time or space: Consistent travel time allocation and estimation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 120-137.
    3. Peer, Stefanie & Knockaert, Jasper & Koster, Paul & Tseng, Yin-Yen & Verhoef, Erik T., 2013. "Door-to-door travel times in RP departure time choice models: An approximation method using GPS data," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 134-150.
    4. Fadaei Oshyani, Masoud & Sundberg, Marcus & Karlström, Anders, 2013. "Consistently estimating link speed using sparse GPS data with measured errors," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:12, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    5. Nantes, Alfredo & Ngoduy, Dong & Miska, Marc & Chung, Edward, 2015. "Probabilistic travel time progression and its application to automatic vehicle identification data," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 131-145.
    6. Westgate, Bradford S. & Woodard, Dawn B. & Matteson, David S. & Henderson, Shane G., 2016. "Large-network travel time distribution estimation for ambulances," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(1), pages 322-333.
    7. Robbin Debbosere & Ahmed El-Geneidy & David Levinson, 2017. "Accessibility Oriented Development," Working Papers 000162, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    8. Coogan, Samuel & Flores, Christopher & Varaiya, Pravin, 2017. "Traffic predictive control from low-rank structure," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 1-22.
    9. repec:eee:transb:v:101:y:2017:i:c:p:1-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Wong, Wai & Wong, S.C., 2015. "Systematic bias in transport model calibration arising from the variability of linear data projection," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-18.
    11. Du, Bo & Wang, David Z.W., 2014. "Continuum modeling of park-and-ride services considering travel time reliability and heterogeneous commuters – A linear complementarity system approach," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 58-81.
    12. Martínez-Díaz, Margarita & Pérez, Ignacio, 2015. "A simple algorithm for the estimation of road traffic space mean speeds from data available to most management centres," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 19-35.
    13. Yin, Kai & Wang, Wen & Bruce Wang, Xiubin & Adams, Teresa M., 2015. "Link travel time inference using entry/exit information of trips on a network," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 303-321.
    14. Liu, Siyuan & Qu, Qiang, 2016. "Dynamic collective routing using crowdsourcing data," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 450-469.

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