IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/tprsxx/v55y2017i17p5062-5078.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predictive analytics for truck arrival time estimation: a field study at a European distribution centre

Author

Listed:
  • Sjoerd van der Spoel
  • Chintan Amrit
  • Jos van Hillegersberg

Abstract

Distribution centres (DCs) are the hubs connecting transport streams in the supply chain. The synchronisation of coming and going cargo at a DC requires reliable arrival times. To achieve this, a reliable method to predict arrival times is needed. A literature review was performed to find the factors that are reported to predict arrival time: congestion, weather, time of day and incidents. While travel time receives considerable attention, there is a gap in literature concerning arrival vs. travel/journey time prediction. None of the reviewed papers investigate arrival time: all the papers found investigate travel time. Arrival time is the consequence of travel time in combination with departure time, so though the travel time literature is applicable, the human factor involved in planning the time of departure can affect the arrival time (especially for truck drivers who have travelled the same route before). To validate the factors that influence arrival time, the authors conducted a detailed case study that includes a survey of 230 truckers, a data analysis and a data mining experiment, using real traffic and weather data. These show that although a ‘big data’ approach delivers valuable insights, the predictive power is not as high as expected; other factors, such as human or organisational factors, could influence arrival time, and it is concluded that such organisational factors should be considered in future predictive models.

Suggested Citation

  • Sjoerd van der Spoel & Chintan Amrit & Jos van Hillegersberg, 2017. "Predictive analytics for truck arrival time estimation: a field study at a European distribution centre," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(17), pages 5062-5078, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:tprsxx:v:55:y:2017:i:17:p:5062-5078
    DOI: 10.1080/00207543.2015.1064183
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00207543.2015.1064183
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00207543.2015.1064183?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yildirimoglu, Mehmet & Geroliminis, Nikolas, 2013. "Experienced travel time prediction for congested freeways," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 45-63.
    2. Lam, William H.K. & Shao, Hu & Sumalee, Agachai, 2008. "Modeling impacts of adverse weather conditions on a road network with uncertainties in demand and supply," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(10), pages 890-910, December.
    3. Li, Zheng & Hensher, David A. & Rose, John M., 2010. "Willingness to pay for travel time reliability in passenger transport: A review and some new empirical evidence," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 384-403, May.
    4. Jenelius, Erik & Mattsson, Lars-Göran & Levinson, David, 2011. "Traveler delay costs and value of time with trip chains, flexible activity scheduling and information," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 789-807, June.
    5. Van Belle, Jan & Valckenaers, Paul & Cattrysse, Dirk, 2012. "Cross-docking: State of the art," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 827-846.
    6. Clark, Stephen & Watling, David, 2005. "Modelling network travel time reliability under stochastic demand," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 119-140, February.
    7. Tu, Huizhao & Li, Hao & van Lint, Hans & van Zuylen, Henk, 2012. "Modeling travel time reliability of freeways using risk assessment techniques," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1528-1540.
    8. Lederman, Roger & Wynter, Laura, 2011. "Real-time traffic estimation using data expansion," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1062-1079, August.
    9. Ng, ManWo & Waller, S. Travis, 2010. "A computationally efficient methodology to characterize travel time reliability using the fast Fourier transform," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1202-1219, December.
    10. Yang, Hai, 1998. "Multiple equilibrium behaviors and advanced traveler information systems with endogenous market penetration," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 205-218, April.
    11. Bates, John & Polak, John & Jones, Peter & Cook, Andrew, 0. "The valuation of reliability for personal travel," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 191-229, April.
    12. Figliozzi, Miguel Andres, 2010. "The impacts of congestion on commercial vehicle tour characteristics and costs," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 496-506, July.
    13. Yeon, Jiyoun & Elefteriadou, Lily & Lawphongpanich, Siriphong, 2008. "Travel time estimation on a freeway using Discrete Time Markov Chains," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 325-338, May.
    14. Hofleitner, Aude & Herring, Ryan & Bayen, Alexandre, 2012. "Arterial travel time forecast with streaming data: A hybrid approach of flow modeling and machine learning," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(9), pages 1097-1122.
    15. Golob, Thomas F. & Regan, Amelia C., 2001. "Impacts of highway congestion on freight operations: perceptions of trucking industry managers," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 577-599, August.
    16. Rietveld, P. & Bruinsma, F. R. & van Vuuren, D. J., 2001. "Coping with unreliability in public transport chains: A case study for Netherlands," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 539-559, July.
    17. Stefanie Peer & Carl Koopmans & Erik T. Verhoef, 2010. "Predicting Travel Time Variability for Cost-Benefit Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-071/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    18. Jenelius, Erik, 2012. "The value of travel time variability with trip chains, flexible scheduling and correlated travel times," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 762-780.
    19. van Lint, J.W.C. & van Zuylen, Henk J. & Tu, H., 2008. "Travel time unreliability on freeways: Why measures based on variance tell only half the story," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 258-277, January.
    20. Lo, Hong K. & Luo, X.W. & Siu, Barbara W.Y., 2006. "Degradable transport network: Travel time budget of travelers with heterogeneous risk aversion," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 792-806, November.
    21. Bell, Michael G. H., 2000. "A game theory approach to measuring the performance reliability of transport networks," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 533-545, August.
    22. Amini, Behnam & Shahi, Jalil & Ardekani, Siamak A., 1998. "An observational study of the network-level traffic variables," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 271-278, May.
    23. Nie, Yu (Marco) & Wu, Xing, 2009. "Shortest path problem considering on-time arrival probability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 597-613, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Claudio Vitari & Elisabetta Raguseo, 2019. "Big data analytics business value and firm performance: Linking with environmental context," Post-Print hal-02293765, HAL.
    2. Nikolaos Servos & Xiaodi Liu & Michael Teucke & Michael Freitag, 2019. "Travel Time Prediction in a Multimodal Freight Transport Relation Using Machine Learning Algorithms," Logistics, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-22, December.
    3. Sena Aydoğan & Gül E. Okudan Kremer & Diyar Akay, 2021. "Linguistic summarization to support supply network decisions," Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing, Springer, vol. 32(6), pages 1573-1586, August.
    4. A. V. Thomas & Biswajit Mahanty, 2021. "Dynamic assessment of control system designs of information shared supply chain network experiencing supplier disruption," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 425-451, March.
    5. Xu, Jinou & Pero, Margherita & Fabbri, Margherita, 2023. "Unfolding the link between big data analytics and supply chain planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ruoqi Wang & Jiawei Li & Ruibin Bai, 2023. "Prediction and Analysis of Container Terminal Logistics Arrival Time Based on Simulation Interactive Modeling: A Case Study of Ningbo Port," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-23, July.
    2. Zhaoqi Zang & Xiangdong Xu & Kai Qu & Ruiya Chen & Anthony Chen, 2022. "Travel time reliability in transportation networks: A review of methodological developments," Papers 2206.12696, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    3. Zhaoqi Zang & Richard Batley & Xiangdong Xu & David Z. W. Wang, 2022. "On the value of distribution tail in the valuation of travel time variability," Papers 2207.06293, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    4. Xu, Xiangdong & Chen, Anthony & Cheng, Lin & Yang, Chao, 2017. "A link-based mean-excess traffic equilibrium model under uncertainty," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 53-75.
    5. Chen, Anthony & Zhou, Zhong & Lam, William H.K., 2011. "Modeling stochastic perception error in the mean-excess traffic equilibrium model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1619-1640.
    6. Wang, Judith Y.T. & Ehrgott, Matthias & Chen, Anthony, 2014. "A bi-objective user equilibrium model of travel time reliability in a road network," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 4-15.
    7. Chen, Anthony & Zhou, Zhong, 2010. "The [alpha]-reliable mean-excess traffic equilibrium model with stochastic travel times," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 493-513, May.
    8. Teppei Kato & Kenetsu Uchida & William H. K. Lam & Agachai Sumalee, 2021. "Estimation of the value of travel time and of travel time reliability for heterogeneous drivers in a road network," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1639-1670, August.
    9. Xiangdong Xu & Anthony Chen & Lin Cheng, 2013. "Assessing the effects of stochastic perception error under travel time variability," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 525-548, May.
    10. Shuang Wang & Jing Lu & Liping Jiang, 2019. "Time Reliability of the Maritime Transportation Network for China’s Crude Oil Imports," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, December.
    11. Zang, Zhaoqi & Xu, Xiangdong & Yang, Chao & Chen, Anthony, 2018. "A closed-form estimation of the travel time percentile function for characterizing travel time reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 228-247.
    12. Ng, ManWo & Szeto, W.Y. & Travis Waller, S., 2011. "Distribution-free travel time reliability assessment with probability inequalities," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 852-866, July.
    13. Tu, Huizhao & Li, Hao & van Lint, Hans & van Zuylen, Henk, 2012. "Modeling travel time reliability of freeways using risk assessment techniques," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1528-1540.
    14. Carrion, Carlos & Levinson, David, 2012. "Value of travel time reliability: A review of current evidence," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 720-741.
    15. Ng, ManWo & Waller, S. Travis, 2010. "A computationally efficient methodology to characterize travel time reliability using the fast Fourier transform," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1202-1219, December.
    16. Michael W. Levin & Melissa Duell & S. Travis Waller, 2020. "Arrival Time Reliability in Strategic User Equilibrium," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 803-831, September.
    17. Bardal, Kjersti Granås & Mathisen, Terje Andreas, 2015. "Winter problems on mountain passes – Implications for cost-benefit analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 59-72.
    18. Prakash, A. Arun & Seshadri, Ravi & Srinivasan, Karthik K., 2018. "A consistent reliability-based user-equilibrium problem with risk-averse users and endogenous travel time correlations: Formulation and solution algorithm," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 171-198.
    19. Oliveira, Eduardo Leal de & Portugal, Licínio da Silva & Porto Junior, Walter, 2016. "Indicators of reliability and vulnerability: Similarities and differences in ranking links of a complex road system," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 195-208.
    20. Shi, Feng & Zhou, Zhao & Yao, Jia & Huang, Helai, 2012. "Incorporating transfer reliability into equilibrium analysis of railway passenger flow," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 378-385.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:tprsxx:v:55:y:2017:i:17:p:5062-5078. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/TPRS20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.