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Assessing the effects of stochastic perception error under travel time variability

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  • Xiangdong Xu
  • Anthony Chen
  • Lin Cheng

Abstract

Perceived mean-excess travel time is a new risk-averse route choice criterion recently proposed to simultaneously consider both stochastic perception error and travel time variability when making route choice decisions under uncertainty. The stochastic perception error is conditionally dependent on the actual travel time distribution, which is different from the deterministic perception error used in the traditional logit model. In this paper, we investigate the effects of stochastic perception error at three levels: (1) individual perceived travel time distribution and its connection to the classification by types of travelers and trip purposes, (2) route choice decisions (in terms of equilibrium flows and perceived mean-excess travel times), and (3) network performance measure (in terms of the total travel time distribution and its statistics). In all three levels, a curve fitting method is adopted to estimate the whole distribution of interest. Numerical examples are also provided to illustrate and visualize the above analyses. The graphical illustrations allow for intuitive interpretation of the effects of stochastic perception error at different levels. The analysis results could enhance the understanding of route choice behaviors under both (subjective) stochastic perception error and (objective) travel time uncertainty. Some suggestions are also provided for behavior data collection and behavioral modeling. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC. 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Xiangdong Xu & Anthony Chen & Lin Cheng, 2013. "Assessing the effects of stochastic perception error under travel time variability," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 525-548, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:40:y:2013:i:3:p:525-548
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-012-9433-6
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    3. Zhaoqi Zang & Richard Batley & Xiangdong Xu & David Z. W. Wang, 2022. "On the value of distribution tail in the valuation of travel time variability," Papers 2207.06293, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    4. Zhaoqi Zang & Xiangdong Xu & Kai Qu & Ruiya Chen & Anthony Chen, 2022. "Travel time reliability in transportation networks: A review of methodological developments," Papers 2206.12696, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    5. Xu, Xiangdong & Chen, Anthony & Cheng, Lin & Lo, Hong K., 2014. "Modeling distribution tail in network performance assessment: A mean-excess total travel time risk measure and analytical estimation method," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 32-49.
    6. Liu, Qiumin & Jiang, Rui & Liu, Ronghui & Zhao, Hui & Gao, Ziyou, 2020. "Travel cost budget based user equilibrium in a bottleneck model with stochastic capacity," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1-37.
    7. Xu, Xiangdong & Chen, Anthony & Cheng, Lin & Yang, Chao, 2017. "A link-based mean-excess traffic equilibrium model under uncertainty," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 53-75.
    8. Wang, Judith Y.T. & Ehrgott, Matthias & Chen, Anthony, 2014. "A bi-objective user equilibrium model of travel time reliability in a road network," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 4-15.
    9. Shuang Wang & Jing Lu & Liping Jiang, 2019. "Time Reliability of the Maritime Transportation Network for China’s Crude Oil Imports," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, December.
    10. Zang, Zhaoqi & Xu, Xiangdong & Yang, Chao & Chen, Anthony, 2018. "A closed-form estimation of the travel time percentile function for characterizing travel time reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 228-247.
    11. Shao, Hu & Lam, William H.K. & Sumalee, Agachai & Chen, Anthony & Hazelton, Martin L., 2014. "Estimation of mean and covariance of peak hour origin–destination demands from day-to-day traffic counts," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 52-75.
    12. Yang, Chao & Chen, Anthony & Xu, Xiangdong & Wong, S.C., 2013. "Sensitivity-based uncertainty analysis of a combined travel demand model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 225-244.

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