IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transb/v45y2011i10p1619-1640.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling stochastic perception error in the mean-excess traffic equilibrium model

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Anthony
  • Zhou, Zhong
  • Lam, William H.K.

Abstract

In this paper, we extend the α-reliable mean-excess traffic equilibrium (METE) model of Chen and Zhou (Transportation Research Part B 44(4), 2010, 493–513) by explicitly modeling the stochastic perception errors within the travelers’ route choice decision processes. In the METE model, each traveler not only considers a travel time budget for ensuring on-time arrival at a confidence level α, but also accounts for the impact of encountering worse travel times in the (1−α) quantile of the distribution tail. Furthermore, due to the imperfect knowledge of the travel time variability particularly in congested networks without advanced traveler information systems, the travelers’ route choice decisions are based on the perceived travel time distribution rather than the actual travel time distribution. In order to compute the perceived mean-excess travel time, an approximation method based on moment analysis is developed. It involves using the conditional moment generation function to derive the perceived link travel time, the Cornish–Fisher Asymptotic Expansion to estimate the perceived travel time budget, and the Acerbi and Tasche Approximation to estimate the perceived mean-excess travel time. The proposed stochastic mean-excess traffic equilibrium (SMETE) model is formulated as a variational inequality (VI) problem, and solved by a route-based solution algorithm with the use of the modified alternating direction method. Numerical examples are also provided to illustrate the application of the proposed SMETE model and solution method.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Anthony & Zhou, Zhong & Lam, William H.K., 2011. "Modeling stochastic perception error in the mean-excess traffic equilibrium model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1619-1640.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:45:y:2011:i:10:p:1619-1640
    DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2011.05.028
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191261511000877
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.trb.2011.05.028?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fisk, Caroline, 1980. "Some developments in equilibrium traffic assignment," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 243-255, September.
    2. Pitu Mirchandani & Hossein Soroush, 1987. "Generalized Traffic Equilibrium with Probabilistic Travel Times and Perceptions," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(3), pages 133-152, August.
    3. Clark, Stephen & Watling, David, 2005. "Modelling network travel time reliability under stochastic demand," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 119-140, February.
    4. Steven A. Gabriel & David Bernstein, 1997. "The Traffic Equilibrium Problem with Nonadditive Path Costs," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(4), pages 337-348, November.
    5. Brownstone, David & Ghosh, Arindam & Golob, Thomas F. & Kazimi, Camilla & Van Amelsfort, Dirk, 2003. "Drivers' willingness-to-pay to reduce travel time: evidence from the San Diego I-15 congestion pricing project," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 373-387, May.
    6. Watling, David, 2006. "User equilibrium traffic network assignment with stochastic travel times and late arrival penalty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(3), pages 1539-1556, December.
    7. van Lint, J.W.C. & van Zuylen, Henk J. & Tu, H., 2008. "Travel time unreliability on freeways: Why measures based on variance tell only half the story," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 258-277, January.
    8. Lo, Hong K. & Luo, X.W. & Siu, Barbara W.Y., 2006. "Degradable transport network: Travel time budget of travelers with heterogeneous risk aversion," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 792-806, November.
    9. Lam, William H.K. & Shao, Hu & Sumalee, Agachai, 2008. "Modeling impacts of adverse weather conditions on a road network with uncertainties in demand and supply," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(10), pages 890-910, December.
    10. Xu, Hongli & Lou, Yingyan & Yin, Yafeng & Zhou, Jing, 2011. "A prospect-based user equilibrium model with endogenous reference points and its application in congestion pricing," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 311-328, February.
    11. Fosgerau, Mogens & Karlström, Anders, 2010. "The value of reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 38-49, January.
    12. Acerbi, Carlo & Tasche, Dirk, 2002. "On the coherence of expected shortfall," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1487-1503, July.
    13. Bell, Michael G. H., 2000. "A game theory approach to measuring the performance reliability of transport networks," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 533-545, August.
    14. Agachai Sumalee & Richard D. Connors & Paramet Luathep, 2009. "Network Equilibrium under Cumulative Prospect Theory and Endogenous Stochastic Demand and Supply," Springer Books, in: William H. K. Lam & S. C. Wong & Hong K. Lo (ed.), Transportation and Traffic Theory 2009: Golden Jubilee, chapter 0, pages 19-38, Springer.
    15. Noland, Robert B. & Small, Kenneth A. & Koskenoja, Pia Maria & Chu, Xuehao, 1998. "Simulating travel reliability," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 535-564, September.
    16. Siu, Barbara W.Y. & Lo, Hong K., 2008. "Doubly uncertain transportation network: Degradable capacity and stochastic demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 166-181, November.
    17. Fosgerau, Mogens & Engelson, Leonid, 2011. "The value of travel time variance," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-8, January.
    18. Anthony Chen & Zhong Zhou, 2009. "A Stochastic α-reliable Mean-excess Traffic Equilibrium Model with Probabilistic Travel Times and Perception Errors," Springer Books, in: William H. K. Lam & S. C. Wong & Hong K. Lo (ed.), Transportation and Traffic Theory 2009: Golden Jubilee, chapter 0, pages 117-145, Springer.
    19. Small, Kenneth A, 1982. "The Scheduling of Consumer Activities: Work Trips," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 467-479, June.
    20. Bell, Michael G. H. & Cassir, Chris, 2002. "Risk-averse user equilibrium traffic assignment: an application of game theory," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 671-681, September.
    21. Chen, Anthony & Lo, Hong K. & Yang, Hai, 2001. "A self-adaptive projection and contraction algorithm for the traffic assignment problem with path-specific costs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 27-41, November.
    22. Connors, Richard D. & Sumalee, Agachai, 2009. "A network equilibrium model with travellers' perception of stochastic travel times," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 614-624, July.
    23. Carlos F. Daganzo, 1982. "Unconstrained Extremal Formulation of Some Transportation Equilibrium Problems," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(3), pages 332-360, August.
    24. Yueyue Fan & Yu Nie, 2006. "Optimal Routing for Maximizing the Travel Time Reliability," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 333-344, September.
    25. de Palma, André & Picard, Nathalie, 2005. "Route choice decision under travel time uncertainty," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 295-324, May.
    26. Liu, Henry X. & Recker, Will & Chen, Anthony, 2004. "Uncovering the contribution of travel time reliability to dynamic route choice using real-time loop data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 435-453, July.
    27. W. Szeto & L. O'Brien & M. O'Mahony, 2006. "Risk-Averse Traffic Assignment with Elastic Demands: NCP Formulation and Solution Method for Assessing Performance Reliability," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 313-332, September.
    28. Sang Nguyen & Clermont Dupuis, 1984. "An Efficient Method for Computing Traffic Equilibria in Networks with Asymmetric Transportation Costs," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(2), pages 185-202, May.
    29. Ng, ManWo & Waller, S. Travis, 2010. "A computationally efficient methodology to characterize travel time reliability using the fast Fourier transform," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1202-1219, December.
    30. Lo, Hong K. & Tung, Yeou-Koung, 2003. "Network with degradable links: capacity analysis and design," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 345-363, May.
    31. Hu Shao & William Lam & Mei Tam, 2006. "A Reliability-Based Stochastic Traffic Assignment Model for Network with Multiple User Classes under Uncertainty in Demand," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 173-204, September.
    32. Zhang, Chao & Chen, Xiaojun & Sumalee, Agachai, 2011. "Robust Wardrop's user equilibrium assignment under stochastic demand and supply: Expected residual minimization approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 534-552, March.
    33. Lo, Hong K. & Chen, Anthony, 2000. "Traffic equilibrium problem with route-specific costs: formulation and algorithms," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 493-513, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhaoqi Zang & Richard Batley & Xiangdong Xu & David Z. W. Wang, 2022. "On the value of distribution tail in the valuation of travel time variability," Papers 2207.06293, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    2. Zhu, Zheng & Mardan, Atabak & Zhu, Shanjiang & Yang, Hai, 2021. "Capturing the interaction between travel time reliability and route choice behavior based on the generalized Bayesian traffic model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 48-64.
    3. Jansuwan, Sarawut & Chen, Anthony & Xu, Xiangdong, 2021. "Analysis of freight transportation network redundancy: An application to Utah’s bi-modal network for transporting coal," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 154-171.
    4. Li, Baibing, 2019. "Measuring travel time reliability and risk: A nonparametric approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 152-171.
    5. Uchida, Kenetsu, 2014. "Estimating the value of travel time and of travel time reliability in road networks," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 129-147.
    6. Danczyk, Adam & Di, Xuan & Liu, Henry X. & Levinson, David M., 2017. "Unexpected versus expected network disruption: Effects on travel behavior," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 68-78.
    7. Di, Xuan & Liu, Henry X., 2016. "Boundedly rational route choice behavior: A review of models and methodologies," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 142-179.
    8. Xu, Xiangdong & Chen, Anthony & Cheng, Lin & Lo, Hong K., 2014. "Modeling distribution tail in network performance assessment: A mean-excess total travel time risk measure and analytical estimation method," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 32-49.
    9. Biswas, Mehek & Bhat, Chandra R. & Ghosh, Sulagna & Pinjari, Abdul Rawoof, 2024. "Choice models with stochastic variables and random coefficients," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    10. Gonghang Chen & Jifeng Cao & Xiangfeng Ji, 2024. "Reliability and Unreliability Aspects of Travel Time Analysis on the Stochastic Network Using the Target-Oriented Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-22, June.
    11. Liang Wang & Lei Zhao & Xiaojian Hu & Xinyong Zhao & Huan Wang, 2023. "A Reliability-Based Traffic Equilibrium Model with Boundedly Rational Travelers Considering Acceptable Arrival Thresholds," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-19, April.
    12. Ma, Jie & Xu, Min & Meng, Qiang & Cheng, Lin, 2020. "Ridesharing user equilibrium problem under OD-based surge pricing strategy," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 1-24.
    13. Prakash, A. Arun & Seshadri, Ravi & Srinivasan, Karthik K., 2018. "A consistent reliability-based user-equilibrium problem with risk-averse users and endogenous travel time correlations: Formulation and solution algorithm," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 171-198.
    14. Xiangdong Xu & Anthony Chen & Lin Cheng, 2013. "Assessing the effects of stochastic perception error under travel time variability," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 525-548, May.
    15. Ji, Xiangfeng & Chu, Yanyu, 2020. "A target-oriented bi-attribute user equilibrium model with travelers’ perception errors on the tolled traffic network," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    16. Xu, Xiangdong & Chen, Anthony & Cheng, Lin & Yang, Chao, 2017. "A link-based mean-excess traffic equilibrium model under uncertainty," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 53-75.
    17. Wang, Judith Y.T. & Ehrgott, Matthias & Chen, Anthony, 2014. "A bi-objective user equilibrium model of travel time reliability in a road network," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 4-15.
    18. Jiang, Gege & Fosgerau, Mogens & Lo, Hong K., 2020. "Route choice, travel time variability, and rational inattention," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 188-207.
    19. Yao, Jia & Chen, Anthony, 2014. "An analysis of logit and weibit route choices in stochastic assignment paradox," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 31-49.
    20. Zang, Zhaoqi & Xu, Xiangdong & Yang, Chao & Chen, Anthony, 2018. "A closed-form estimation of the travel time percentile function for characterizing travel time reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 228-247.
    21. Shao, Hu & Lam, William H.K. & Sumalee, Agachai & Chen, Anthony & Hazelton, Martin L., 2014. "Estimation of mean and covariance of peak hour origin–destination demands from day-to-day traffic counts," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 52-75.
    22. Yang, Chao & Chen, Anthony & Xu, Xiangdong & Wong, S.C., 2013. "Sensitivity-based uncertainty analysis of a combined travel demand model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 225-244.
    23. Qi Zhong & Lixin Miao, 2024. "Reliability-Based Mixed Traffic Equilibrium Problem Under Endogenous Market Penetration of Connected Autonomous Vehicles and Uncertainty in Supply," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 461-505, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Anthony & Zhou, Zhong, 2010. "The [alpha]-reliable mean-excess traffic equilibrium model with stochastic travel times," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 493-513, May.
    2. Zhaoqi Zang & Xiangdong Xu & Kai Qu & Ruiya Chen & Anthony Chen, 2022. "Travel time reliability in transportation networks: A review of methodological developments," Papers 2206.12696, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    3. Wang, Judith Y.T. & Ehrgott, Matthias & Chen, Anthony, 2014. "A bi-objective user equilibrium model of travel time reliability in a road network," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 4-15.
    4. Xiangdong Xu & Anthony Chen & Lin Cheng, 2013. "Assessing the effects of stochastic perception error under travel time variability," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 525-548, May.
    5. Xu, Xiangdong & Chen, Anthony & Cheng, Lin & Yang, Chao, 2017. "A link-based mean-excess traffic equilibrium model under uncertainty," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 53-75.
    6. Prakash, A. Arun & Seshadri, Ravi & Srinivasan, Karthik K., 2018. "A consistent reliability-based user-equilibrium problem with risk-averse users and endogenous travel time correlations: Formulation and solution algorithm," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 171-198.
    7. Teppei Kato & Kenetsu Uchida & William H. K. Lam & Agachai Sumalee, 2021. "Estimation of the value of travel time and of travel time reliability for heterogeneous drivers in a road network," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1639-1670, August.
    8. Xie, Chi & Liu, Zugang, 2014. "On the stochastic network equilibrium with heterogeneous choice inertia," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 90-109.
    9. Nakayama, Shoichiro & Watling, David, 2014. "Consistent formulation of network equilibrium with stochastic flows," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 50-69.
    10. Siu, Barbara W.Y. & Lo, Hong K., 2008. "Doubly uncertain transportation network: Degradable capacity and stochastic demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 166-181, November.
    11. Xu, Hongli & Lou, Yingyan & Yin, Yafeng & Zhou, Jing, 2011. "A prospect-based user equilibrium model with endogenous reference points and its application in congestion pricing," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 311-328, February.
    12. Amirgholy, Mahyar & Gonzales, Eric J., 2017. "Efficient frontier of route choice for modeling the equilibrium under travel time variability with heterogeneous traveler preferences," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 11, pages 1-14.
    13. Li-Jun Tian & Hai-Jun Huang & Zi-You Gao, 2012. "A Cumulative Perceived Value-Based Dynamic User Equilibrium Model Considering the Travelers’ Risk Evaluation on Arrival Time," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 589-608, December.
    14. Tan, Zhijia & Yang, Hai & Guo, Renyong, 2014. "Pareto efficiency of reliability-based traffic equilibria and risk-taking behavior of travelers," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 16-31.
    15. Nie, Yu (Marco), 2011. "Multi-class percentile user equilibrium with flow-dependent stochasticity," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1641-1659.
    16. Xiangfeng Ji & Xuegang (Jeff) Ban & Mengtian Li & Jian Zhang & Bin Ran, 2017. "Non-expected Route Choice Model under Risk on Stochastic Traffic Networks," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 777-807, September.
    17. Ng, ManWo & Waller, S. Travis, 2010. "A computationally efficient methodology to characterize travel time reliability using the fast Fourier transform," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1202-1219, December.
    18. Michael W. Levin & Melissa Duell & S. Travis Waller, 2020. "Arrival Time Reliability in Strategic User Equilibrium," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 803-831, September.
    19. Uchida, Kenetsu, 2014. "Estimating the value of travel time and of travel time reliability in road networks," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 129-147.
    20. Liu, Qiumin & Jiang, Rui & Liu, Ronghui & Zhao, Hui & Gao, Ziyou, 2020. "Travel cost budget based user equilibrium in a bottleneck model with stochastic capacity," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1-37.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:45:y:2011:i:10:p:1619-1640. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/548/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.