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Doubly uncertain transportation network: Degradable capacity and stochastic demand

  • Siu, Barbara W.Y.
  • Lo, Hong K.

This study developed a methodology to model doubly uncertain transportation network with stochastic link capacity degradation and stochastic demand. We consider that the total travel demand comprises of two parts, infrequent travelers and commuters. The traffic volume of infrequent travelers is stochastic, which adds to the network traffic in a random manner based on fixed route choice proportions. On the other hand, the traffic volume of commuters is stable or deterministic. Commuters acquire the network travel time variability from past experiences, factor them into their route choice considerations, and settle into a long-term habitual route choice equilibrium in which they have no incentive of switching away. To define this equilibrium, we introduce the notion of "travel time budget" to relate commuters' risk aversion on route choices in the presence of travel time variability. The travel time budget varies among commuters according to their degrees of risk aversion and requirements on punctual arrivals. We then developed a mixed-equilibrium formulation to capture these stochastic considerations and illustrated its properties through some numerical studies.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Operational Research.

Volume (Year): 191 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (November)
Pages: 166-181

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:191:y:2008:i:1:p:166-181
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor

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  1. Small, Kenneth A, 1982. "The Scheduling of Consumer Activities: Work Trips," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 467-79, June.
  2. Robert B. Noland & John W. Polak, 2002. "Travel time variability: A review of theoretical and empirical issues," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 39-54, January.
  3. Noland, R.B. & Small, K.A. & Koskenoja, P.M. & Chu, X., 1996. "Simulating Travel Reliability," Papers 95-96-7, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
  4. Lo, Hong K. & Tung, Yeou-Koung, 2003. "Network with degradable links: capacity analysis and design," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 345-363, May.
  5. Chen, Anthony & Yang, Hai & Lo, Hong K. & Tang, Wilson H., 2002. "Capacity reliability of a road network: an assessment methodology and numerical results," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 225-252, March.
  6. Lo, Hong K. & Luo, X.W. & Siu, Barbara W.Y., 2006. "Degradable transport network: Travel time budget of travelers with heterogeneous risk aversion," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 792-806, November.
  7. Small, Kenneth A, 1992. "Trip Scheduling in Urban Transportation Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 482-86, May.
  8. Szeto, W. Y. & Lo, Hong K., 2004. "A cell-based simultaneous route and departure time choice model with elastic demand," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 593-612, August.
  9. Clark, Stephen & Watling, David, 2005. "Modelling network travel time reliability under stochastic demand," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 119-140, February.
  10. de Palma, André & Picard, Nathalie, 2005. "Route choice decision under travel time uncertainty," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 295-324, May.
  11. Lo, Hong K. & Szeto, W. Y., 2002. "A cell-based variational inequality formulation of the dynamic user optimal assignment problem," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 421-443, June.
  12. Dial, Robert B., 1997. "Bicriterion traffic assignment: Efficient algorithms plus examples," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 357-379, October.
  13. Watling, David, 2006. "User equilibrium traffic network assignment with stochastic travel times and late arrival penalty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(3), pages 1539-1556, December.
  14. Nicholson, Alan & Du, Zhen-Ping, 1997. "Degradable transportation systems: An integrated equilibrium model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 209-223, June.
  15. Lo, Hong K. & Chen, Anthony, 2000. "Traffic equilibrium problem with route-specific costs: formulation and algorithms," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 493-513, August.
  16. Han, Deren & Lo, Hong K., 2004. "Solving non-additive traffic assignment problems: A descent method for co-coercive variational inequalities," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 159(3), pages 529-544, December.
  17. Liu, Henry X. & Recker, Will & Chen, Anthony, 2004. "Uncovering the contribution of travel time reliability to dynamic route choice using real-time loop data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 435-453, July.
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