IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transb/v130y2019icp152-171.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring travel time reliability and risk: A nonparametric approach

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Baibing

Abstract

The reliability of travel time significantly affects individual travelers’ decision-making behaviour and hence in turn influences the overall travel demand at the macroscopic level. The travel time reliability ratio (TTRR), defined to be the ratio of the value of travel time variability to the value of travel time, is an important metric for measuring such reliability. In this paper, we first show that the TTRR is closely related to a widely used risk measure in financial economics, i.e. conditional value at risk (CVaR). Then based on the connection between the TTRR and CVaR, we develop a nonparametric approach to estimate the TTRR. In the literature, to compute the TTRR, it usually needs to assume a specific statistical distribution for the travel time. This can produce a misleading result when this assumption goes awry due to the potential complexity of travel time distributions. Based on the relationship between the TTRR and CVaR, this paper proposes a new nonparametric method, i.e. the kernel density estimation method, to overcome this problem. We show that this new nonparametric method is robust in terms that it does not depend on any assumptions about the shape of the travel time distribution. The simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the existing methods and substantially improves the numerical accuracy. Finally, a practical example is used to illustrate the proposed method.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Baibing, 2019. "Measuring travel time reliability and risk: A nonparametric approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 152-171.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:130:y:2019:i:c:p:152-171
    DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2019.10.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191261519300608
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.trb.2019.10.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hollander, Yaron, 2006. "Direct versus indirect models for the effects of unreliability," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 699-711, November.
    2. de Jong, Gerard C. & Bliemer, Michiel C.J., 2015. "On including travel time reliability of road traffic in appraisal," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 80-95.
    3. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    4. Fosgerau, Mogens & Karlström, Anders, 2010. "The value of reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 38-49, January.
    5. Kim, Jiwon & Mahmassani, Hani S., 2015. "Compound Gamma representation for modeling travel time variability in a traffic network," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 40-63.
    6. Small, Kenneth A, 1982. "The Scheduling of Consumer Activities: Work Trips," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 467-479, June.
    7. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
    8. Xu, Xiangdong & Chen, Anthony & Cheng, Lin & Lo, Hong K., 2014. "Modeling distribution tail in network performance assessment: A mean-excess total travel time risk measure and analytical estimation method," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 32-49.
    9. Li, Zheng & Hensher, David A. & Rose, John M., 2010. "Willingness to pay for travel time reliability in passenger transport: A review and some new empirical evidence," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 384-403, May.
    10. Li, Baibing, 2017. "Stochastic modeling for vehicle platoons (II): Statistical characteristics," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 378-393.
    11. Zang, Zhaoqi & Xu, Xiangdong & Yang, Chao & Chen, Anthony, 2018. "A closed-form estimation of the travel time percentile function for characterizing travel time reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 228-247.
    12. Chen, Anthony & Zhou, Zhong & Lam, William H.K., 2011. "Modeling stochastic perception error in the mean-excess traffic equilibrium model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1619-1640.
    13. Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1993. "A Structural Model of Peak-Period Congestion: A Traffic Bottleneck with Elastic Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 161-179, March.
    14. Bates, John & Polak, John & Jones, Peter & Cook, Andrew, 0. "The valuation of reliability for personal travel," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 191-229, April.
    15. Asensio, Javier & Matas, Anna, 2008. "Commuters' valuation of travel time variability," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 1074-1085, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhaoqi Zang & Richard Batley & Xiangdong Xu & David Z. W. Wang, 2022. "On the value of distribution tail in the valuation of travel time variability," Papers 2207.06293, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    2. Zhaoqi Zang & Xiangdong Xu & Kai Qu & Ruiya Chen & Anthony Chen, 2022. "Travel time reliability in transportation networks: A review of methodological developments," Papers 2206.12696, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    3. Robert Kölbl & Martin Kozek, 2021. "A physiological model of human mobility: A global study," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Osipenko, Maria, 2021. "Directional assessment of traffic flow extremes," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 353-369.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhaoqi Zang & Richard Batley & Xiangdong Xu & David Z. W. Wang, 2022. "On the value of distribution tail in the valuation of travel time variability," Papers 2207.06293, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    2. Zhaoqi Zang & Xiangdong Xu & Kai Qu & Ruiya Chen & Anthony Chen, 2022. "Travel time reliability in transportation networks: A review of methodological developments," Papers 2206.12696, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    3. Carrion, Carlos & Levinson, David, 2012. "Value of travel time reliability: A review of current evidence," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 720-741.
    4. Dixit, Vinayak V. & Harb, Rami C. & Martínez-Correa, Jimmy & Rutström, Elisabet E., 2015. "Measuring risk aversion to guide transportation policy: Contexts, incentives, and respondents," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 15-34.
    5. Xiao, Yu & Coulombel, Nicolas & Palma, André de, 2017. "The valuation of travel time reliability: does congestion matter?," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 113-141.
    6. Xu, Xiangdong & Chen, Anthony & Cheng, Lin & Yang, Chao, 2017. "A link-based mean-excess traffic equilibrium model under uncertainty," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 53-75.
    7. Zheng Li & Alejandro Tirachini & David A. Hensher, 2012. "Embedding Risk Attitudes in a Scheduling Model: Application to the Study of Commuting Departure Time," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(2), pages 170-188, May.
    8. Li, Hao & Tu, Huizhao & Hensher, David A., 2016. "Integrating the mean–variance and scheduling approaches to allow for schedule delay and trip time variability under uncertainty," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 151-163.
    9. Zang, Zhaoqi & Xu, Xiangdong & Yang, Chao & Chen, Anthony, 2018. "A closed-form estimation of the travel time percentile function for characterizing travel time reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 228-247.
    10. Nicolas Coulombel & André de Palma, 2014. "The marginal social cost of travel time variability," Post-Print hal-01100105, HAL.
    11. de Jong, Gerard C. & Bliemer, Michiel C.J., 2015. "On including travel time reliability of road traffic in appraisal," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 80-95.
    12. Fu, Jianhua & Zhang, Yongqing, 2020. "Valuation of travel time reliability: Considering the traveler's adaptive expectation with an indifference band on daily trip duration," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 337-353.
    13. Stefanie Peer & Erik Verhoef & Jasper Knockaert & Paul Koster & Yin-Yen Tseng, 2011. "Long-Run vs. Short-Run Perspectives on Consumer Scheduling: Evidence from a Revealed-Preference Experiment among Peak-Hour Road Commuters," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-181/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 25 Aug 2014.
    14. Engelson, Leonid & Fosgerau, Mogens, 2016. "The cost of travel time variability: Three measures with properties," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 555-564.
    15. Kenneth Small, 2015. "The Bottleneck Model: An Assessment and Interpretation," Working Papers 141506, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    16. Fosgerau, Mogens & Engelson, Leonid, 2011. "The value of travel time variance," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-8, January.
    17. Soriguera, Francesc, 2014. "On the value of highway travel time information systems," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 294-310.
    18. Yu, Xiaojuan & van den Berg, Vincent A.C. & Li, Zhi-Chun, 2023. "Congestion pricing and information provision under uncertainty: Responsive versus habitual pricing," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    19. Stefanie Peer & Erik Verhoef & Jasper Knockaert & Paul Koster & Yin‐Yen Tseng, 2015. "Long‐Run Versus Short‐Run Perspectives On Consumer Scheduling: Evidence From A Revealed‐Preference Experiment Among Peak‐Hour Road Commuters," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(1), pages 303-323, February.
    20. Engelson, Leonid & Fosgerau, Mogens, 2011. "Additive measures of travel time variability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1560-1571.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:130:y:2019:i:c:p:152-171. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/548/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.